isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think ncep made a mistake and ran the 6z gfs at h5 instead of the updated 12z. Looks remarkably similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 after a brief period of frozen for the citys...it is rain at hr 54...looks like PA is frozen and nw jersey...but not very much preciep back towards PA Everything cools off at 57. And decent QPF falls from hour 57-63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 57 850's past the citys..surface nw....925 temps are near zero for the citys.... hr 60 850's off the coast...surface over the citys...925 temps below zero from monmouth county north hr 63 everyone is snow....just dont know how preciep is left for snj and phl one would think we go to frz rain/sleet at hr 57.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Where are you seeing GFS maps for 57 hours? Twisterdata.com has 3-hourly maps, but only out to 48 hours. Everything cools off at 57. And decent QPF falls from hour 57-63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Where are you seeing GFS maps for 57 hours? Twisterdata.com has 3-hourly maps, but only out to 48 hours. i get it at sv...it runs a bit quicker then the rest of the model sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Where are you seeing GFS maps for 57 hours? Twisterdata.com has 3-hourly maps, but only out to 48 hours. He's probably using the experimental ncep site that provides 3 hour increments past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Where are you seeing GFS maps for 57 hours? Twisterdata.com has 3-hourly maps, but only out to 48 hours. NCEP experimental, rapid update site. Has 3 hour increments for NAM and GFS and brings out the NMM and ARW about half hour before the regular site. Also, has srefs about 5-10 mins earlier. Takes some time to get used to and learn how to use it, but once you get used to it, you will find yourself never using the regular ncep site again. Took me about a week to learn all of its quirks. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=GFS&prevArea=&currKey=region&prevKey=region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So does anyone have a breakdown of the snow or rain or back to snow amounts on Saturday? Rossi It all cools off between hour 57 and 60. At hour 57, the surface is pretty warm with the line up into northern CT. All the other levels at hour 57 are right on NYC. Verbatim, it would probably be rain/sleet mix, transitioning to wet snow and not really accumulating much, except for existing snow pack and grassy areas. There just isnt enough precip left after we cool off. Here is hour 57 surface temp and 850 temp: surface: 850: And here is what falls between hour 57 and 63; Nothing falls after hour 63: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Man 120 looks like a great setup for that next wave, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 162 major winter storm going on in the southeast...also punded OK and Arkansas with heavy snow...over runnining about to get into our area hr 165 atl getting hammered with heavy snow....mod-heavy snow for western NC and central/western VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Massive storm on GFS day 7-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Canadian (as of now, only loaded to hour 51) is showing a whole different look today. Warmer, wetter, icey and whiter ... depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS NEXT WEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 162 major winter storm going on in the southeast...also punded OK and Arkansas with heavy snow...over runnining about to get into our area hr 165 atl getting hammered with heavy snow....mod-heavy snow for western NC and central/western VA... This was actually mentioned on CNN this morning They said "Not to make anyone panic, but the SE might need to be prepared for a major snowstorm next week." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 168 major snow storm for northern VA(DC AND Baltimore) low over norfolk hr 168-180 dc-bos get crushed...major snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 972 low on BM at hour 174. Heavy snow for NJ and into NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Canadian (as of now, only loaded to hour 51) is showing a whole different look today. Warmer, wetter, icey and whiter ... depending on location. for when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That is a beautiful Miller A with over running and then intense coastal about 972 off the coast of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So, who is starting the thread on the new monster for the end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 a storm like this that the GFS and several of its ensembles and the euro have been hinting at would truly make this winter historic. It looks as intense as the boxing day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 That is a beautiful Miller A with over running and then intense coastal about 972 off the coast of LI Heh, and widespread heavy snows, not just the immediate coastal area. The way he described it, it sounded like Feb 1983 and Feb 2003. I want to see the CIPS analogs for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 for when? for this Saturday (6th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I love the ridge position, but dislike the lack of a 50/50 type low. I could see it trending warmer as we go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So, who is starting the thread on the new monster for the end of next week? A lot of discussion about next week....what's the latest on this weekend? Am I hearing rainy for eastern pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So, who is starting the thread on the new monster for the end of next week? Yeah, this thread should focus on the 5th-6th only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So, who is starting the thread on the new monster for the end of next week? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12429-febuary-9-11-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Here is latest Canadian ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Heh, and widespread heavy snows, not just the immediate coastal area. The way he described it, it sounded like Feb 1983 and Feb 2003. I want to see the CIPS analogs for that time period. I would caution the wide spead thing, because every big storm this year modelled to be an expansive miller A this far out has not been as expansive when it hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow. Looks like the euro isn't alone anymore with next weeks potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 http://www.americanw...ry-9-11-threat/ Nice. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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