LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think it might get near or below 930mb at 168 hrs Correct.....It's 924mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Strongly agree Hurricane Andrew near New Foundland...now we've seen it all, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 168 hrs That is a fkn black hole!!! Coriolis FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 180 hours precipitation streaming up the East coast..big snowstorm for MS/AL/GA and heading for the Carolinas 6z GFS has the same storm as the Euro but also slips off the coast. 0z Euro ensemble mean and GGEM ensembles show a lot of potential for this storm. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_174l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Okay if we can get that to retrograde back into the North Eastern States.......I am having a "Day After Tomorrow" party! Anyway....924....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro ensembles looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Euro ensembles looks really nice. For what? NAO, Snowstorm, cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 For what? NAO, Snowstorm, cold? I don't have access to hour 66 but I imagine it's pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't have access to hour 66 but I imagine it's pretty good as well. Um does look good, wonder if I'll be able to stay more frozen then wet in my area. Hope so, need to keep the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow....that massively deep SLP in Newfoundland should certainly help to pump the blocking ridge back up (or at least strengthen the one that was developing) over Greenland. Looks like this 'break' that we are in is merely the pattern reloading itself for the last half of winter. Amazing run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just remember it's the Euro at border line fantasy land range. This certianly plays into my theory though that we have a major threat around the day 10 time period. We all saw how the Euro broke its own record during Hurricane season for lowest ever forecasted pressure and it never even came close to verifying. This reminds of 12/26/10 though. A storm this wound up is probably another screw job for the interior, have nothing against my friends to the west and wish them the best but if that were to verify that would be fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 12Z Nam at hour 66 appears to have taken a step towards the GFS although not a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 12Z Nam at hour 66 appears to have taken a step towards the GFS although not a big one. It's still a pretty big mess as it travels up I-95 and pretty much develops late over NYC-NE. Nice and warm still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's still a pretty big mess as it travels up I-95 and pretty much develops late over NYC-NE. Nice and warm still... Looks like some snow as the low moves north, which is more like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like some snow as the low moves north, which is more like the GFS. East of I-95 it is warm at 850 and if I am not mistaken we are only talking about .12 of precipitation throughout the entire model run. If I am reading that wrong someone let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 East of I-95 it is warm at 850 and if I am not mistaken we are only talking about .12 of precipitation throughout the entire model run. If I am reading that wrong someone let me know. It seems to be the western outlier right now, though, and I was talking for I-95 and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Hi. Good analysis, IMO. And your area is having one heck of a winter...well deserved after what happened up there last winter. Regarding the Feb 5 threat, looks like a 'snow to slop (mix/rain) then back to snow' scenario for the NW burbs at this point. Given that quite a bit of the precip falls during the day with marginal temps, I would suspect there is little or no threat of freezing rain. Hope the last couple hours of the precip fall after 5 PM on Saturday as snow and we can pick up a couple inches of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It seems to be the western outlier right now, though, and I was talking for I-95 and west. I know you were referring to west of I-95. I was just a little surprised how dry it was with the qpf. It must be the outlier in that facet as well. Still too early to trust the NAM in any aspect at this point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Pardon by weenieism but what the heck does Hi. stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Pardon by weenieism but what the heck does Hi. stand for? He was quoting something that he posted in another thread in regards to the Euro run last night and said hi to everybody in the thread when he copy and pasted his quote. Hi means hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think it might get near or below 930mb at 168 hrs Sounds like Typhoon Yasi's twin lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 He was quoting something that he posted in another thread in regards to the Euro run last night and said hi to everybody in the thread when he copy and pasted his quote. Hi means hello. Oh I see...I'm a tad confused lol Oh well looks like it will be another exciting week of sleepless nights waiting for the Euro to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 He was quoting something that he posted in another thread in regards to the Euro run last night and said hi to everybody in the thread when he copy and pasted his quote. Hi means hello. LOL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh I see...I'm a tad confused lol Oh well looks like it will be another exciting week of sleepless nights waiting for the Euro to come out. 6z GFS shows the potential as well with a northern stream s/w diving into a southern stream s/w....it all happens a bit too late but the potential is definitely there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Oh I see...I'm a tad confused lol Oh well looks like it will be another exciting week of sleepless nights waiting for the Euro to come out. Until it shows something completely different at 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Until it shows something completely different at 12z lol Surprisingly enough it's been remarkably consistent with that potential threat for four runs now. We'll have to see what it does in a few hours, but it's beaming a signal at us for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 So.....since I don't have access to the more detailed Euro products are we talking SECS, MECS or HECS? I know there will be a massive bombing low pressure system but other than that how does SE Canada look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 6z GFS shows the potential as well with a northern stream s/w diving into a southern stream s/w....it all happens a bit too late but the potential is definitely there The 50/50 low is the problem on the 06Z GFS..its so strong it basically causes the broad trough despite the big PV...the problem is if that low is not there though the trough probably amplifies too fast and the storm hugs the coast...the 500mb setup at 156 hours is basically an unsharpened version of 1/22/87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 12z gfs looks mighty like 6z. Will the NAM lead the way for the american models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 after a brief period of frozen for the citys...it is rain at hr 54...looks like PA is frozen and nw jersey...but not very much preciep back towards PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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