Guest Pamela Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Climatologically, this is probably the best week of the year for snow in the NYC area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Two nites ago there was a lot of discussion about the "off hour" runs typically coming in colder and not to get excited, wait for the 0Z/12Z. Is there something in particular here that would lend more credibility to the 18Z run vs. the 0Z? Of course, it will be moot in a couple hrs when we the 0Z comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 00z NAM = Too warm for snow near the coast (hoping its wrong) Nice snowstorm for the far interior. next up GFS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 21z SREF pretty much held serve from 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Isn't the GFS known for shifting warmer and farther N and W with most storms this winter? One would suspect that the pattern is still in a reload and next week is the potential the East Coast should be keying on once some blocking finally returns. I know, it's snowed without blocking this uear, but between yesterday's system and this Feb 5-6 system, it seems we are in reload or a transition stage. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I would suspect the GFS is up to it's old tricks and will amplify the system more in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 21z SREF pretty much held serve from 15z. The srefs are all over the place. Some are snow storms, some are complete misses, some are rain storms. They are out on ewall. The gfs has been remarkably conistent and the 12z euro cooled down considerably today and it has a known warm bias. Whoever gets in the deform banding wins with this event. It will dynamically cool. Outside that band, rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the 00z GFS at 30 hours, if that SE ridge weren't there, this would be another massive snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at the 00z GFS at 30 hours, if that SE ridge weren't there, this would be another massive snowstorm. it may but i think the high sliding off the coast is what really hurts. The southerly winds when that leaves torches 925-800mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 it may but i think the high sliding off the coast is what really hurts. The southerly winds when that leaves torches 925-800mb I think that if the ridge weren't there, dynamics would blow and that high would have much less of an impact. 586dm heights over Cuba are something we haven't seen yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Raleigh site shows 3 lows at hr. 54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 At 48 at h5, we see the typical winter trends when compared to the 18z GFS. More energy is left behind the main vort and the northern stream is significantly weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 57 broad area of low pressure on the se coast...light snow for all of PA....850's and surface run just south east of 95...looks like phl starts out as frozen...will see where it goes from here...its light .01-.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The Raleigh site shows 3 lows at hr. 54? triple point low pressure, its common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this looks like a wet snowfall for area just nw of the citys...mod band of snow hr 66 from landcaster to ne pa....seems like by hr 69 the citys are back to snow...hr 72 nyc gets a blitz of snow....phl a bit lighter from the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The low is in a good spot at hr. 66, about 50 miles off the NJ coast - close to something nice for us. If it could just develop more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 between the hrs of 69-72 nyc gets .25-.50 of snow phl .10-.25 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this looks like a wet snowfall for area just nw of the citys...mod band of snow hr 66 from landcaster to ne pa....seems like by hr 69 the citys are back to snow...hr 72 nyc gets a blitz of snow....phl a bit lighter from the ccb Closer than 18z, but still no cigar. That's sleet btw, not snow. Upper levels are very warm. Another shift of 20-30 miles east and that CCB over western Mass. can be over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks like a rain to snow event on this run, with the low bombing out at 72 to bring the cold air down and the ccb overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The low is in a good spot at hr. 66, about 50 miles off the NJ coast - close to something nice for us. If it could just develop more quickly. Definetely a close call for eastern PA on the GFS. Again, I just hate the time of day this things rolls through. If you aren't under the heaviest banding, it may not stick well during the day (like the 2 clipper systems last week here in eastern PA). Snowed lightly all day, and didn't amount to anything with temperatures just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Closer than 18z, but still no cigar. That's sleet btw, not snow. Upper levels are very warm. Another shift of 20-30 miles east and that CCB over western Mass. can be over NYC. hr 69 850's and surface are over nyc and 850;s past phl and surface is just to there north...without seeing soundings yet...one would think its not all sleet...by hr 72 850's off the coast and surface se of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looking at h5 at hour 66, VERY close to the situation that Boston has at hour 72. Temp. profile looks right translated down to the surface, but I'd look deeper into the intensity of the low. I'd say stronger than what is depicted at the surface. If you look at the hour 72 frame, you see a perfect example of what a stronger, more organized low can do to provide cold air. CCB action for Boston this run, no doubt about it. The trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 69 850's and surface are over nyc and 850;s past phl and surface is just to there north...without seeing soundings yet...one would think its not all sleet...by hr 72 850's off the coast and surface se of 95 You have to take into account that the precip. you see in frame 72 has already fallen by the time temps. are crashing. Someone more knowledgable correct me if I'm wrong, but verbatim I would say this is actually snow to sleet to rain, then back to light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 You have to take into account that the precip. you see in frame 72 has already fallen by the time temps. are crashing. Someone more knowledgable correct me if I'm wrong, but verbatim I would say this is actually snow to sleet to rain, then back to light snow. yes i understand that but by hr 72 850s are way off the coast and surface se of the citys....while at hr 69 they are ontop of the citys...so between hr 69-72 its prob all frozen...with perhaps a hr wasted on sleet...that preciep to me between those hours would be frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yes i understand that but by hr 72 850s are way off the coast and surface se of the citys....while at hr 69 they are ontop of the citys...so between hr 69-72 its prob all frozen...with perhaps a hr wasted on sleet...that preciep to me between those hours would be frozen look at your 925mb temp its above 0, it looks like sleet or frz rain or rain if the surface is above frz. Its close.. Also when you look at the sv maps at hr 72, that precip is not what falls from hr 69 to 72.. thats from what falls at hr 66-72. I got burned by this a couple storms ago till i figured this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 yes i understand that but by hr 72 850s are way off the coast and surface se of the citys....while at hr 69 they are ontop of the citys...so between hr 69-72 its prob all frozen...with perhaps a hr wasted on sleet...that preciep to me between those hours would be frozen Looking at the 3-hour intervals, yes, you're probably right. The last three hours (from 69-72) would be moderate snowfall, but anything in the 3 or 4 hours before that looks to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 look at your 925mb temp its above 0, it looks like sleet or frz rain or rain if the surface is above frz. Its close.. Also when you look at the sv maps at hr 72, that precip is not what falls from hr 69 to 72.. thats from what falls at hr 66-72. I got burned by this a couple storms ago till i figured this out Just looking at the MAG site at hour 69, I actually think the column is cold enough to support a moderate wet snow past hour 69 just to the north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Just looking at the MAG site at hour 69, I actually think the column is cold enough to support a moderate wet snow past hour 69 just to the north and west of the cities. yea just north and west i agree... i was going for the i95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 0z ukmet Boston would find some way to get a 12+ storm with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 look at your 925mb temp its above 0, it looks like sleet or frz rain or rain if the surface is above frz. Its close.. Also when you look at the sv maps at hr 72, that precip is not what falls from hr 69 to 72.. thats from what falls at hr 66-72. I got burned by this a couple storms ago till i figured this out for phl 925 temps are close to zero at hr 69....and below at hr 72.....thanks for the tip bout the sv maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.