nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm just pointing out that it doesn't seem to matter what the pattern is, it still manages to produce. I don't think that is changing anytime soon. We went through a period at the end of Dec where we had to wait about 2 wks to cash in on a great pattern. Then we just absolutely killed it in Jan (obv) and now I think we probably have to wait a good wk or 2 to have a solid major storm potential. I think we definitely cash in (esp up here) with at least the storm for this wknd, and depending on how our next storm develops along the arctic front maybe with that one too. Yes well said...we have produced snow and ice for NYC metro with a low cutting through Indiana, with a raging positive NAO, and with marginal cold air; Winter 10-11 will be remembered as one of the most severe the region has ever faced. Channel 12 news reported last night that Westchester County is rapidly running out of salt, which is very unfortunate considering the potential for more storms and extremely cold weather with snow and ice still all over the place from the previous two nights. I think we see 3-6" Saturday, an arctic outbreak in the middle of next week, and then a chance for a Miller A Nor'easter before some more brutally cold air pushes southward with -30C 850s entering the High Plains. Should be another memorable stretch upcoming, and my snowpack is still around 20" in wooded areas, with a glaze of ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GEFS mean is colder then operational. It has .50"-.75" from Philly on North and east. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GEFS total precip: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep24084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 HPN is all snow on the GFS, as should other suburbs http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=gfs&time=current&field=tempa Have to watch the backside vort and how it phases into the main system, that could change the solution quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 IMBY we squeeze out 0.14 as SN on the front, 0.16 as SN on the end, and 0.20 as wintry mix (850's +1, 2m 32) ABE is 0.50 and all snow, but just barely. 850's at 0 probably means some sleet mixes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't really love the fact that this storm (if precip. falls as snow) occurs mainly during the day. That could hold snow totals down a bit with marginal surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 IMBY we squeeze out 0.14 as SN on the front, 0.16 as SN on the end, and 0.20 as wintry mix (850's +1, 2m 32) ABE is 0.50 and all snow, but just barely. 850's at 0 probably means some sleet mixes in. I think it depends on the depth of the warm layer, which is barely existent to begin with. A shallow layer at 0C is not going to melt snowflakes to produce sleet. I you want to see sleet you would need a deep layer of slightly above freezing temperatures or a shallow layer of "well above" freezing temps, or any combination of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I don't really love the fact that this storm (if precip. falls as snow) occurs mainly during the day. That could hold snow totals down a bit with marginal surface temperatures. yea i agree, i still dont think this is anything noteable for the cities, maybe boston. The far north and west burbs should cash in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 where the heck are people getting 4-8 from the gfs for the nyc this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 where the heck are people getting 4-8 from the gfs for the nyc this run? I think they are seeing the 850 zero line drop southeast of them and a big blob of QPF forgetting its a 6-hour ENDING map. The precipitation is coming to an end or has ended by the time it cools off aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think they are seeing the 850 zero line drop southeast of them and a big blob of QPF, but the precipitation is coming to an end or has ended by the time it cools off aloft. yea i was going to say, not even that but the 925mb temps are above freezing even when the temps get below freezing... the sv snow maps have phl and nyc as about 1 to at most 2 inches and that would be the immediate western and northern burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 where the heck are people getting 4-8 from the gfs for the nyc this run? Bufkit is close. Has about .35"-.40" as snow and .16" as rain. Doubt it would accumulate to 4"-8". Biggest part of it is during CCB where .30" falls in 3 hours or so and temps dynamically cool. Would probably be 2"-4" of wet slop, verbatim But it's definitely colder and better then previous runs. One more nudge SE and NYC would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think they are seeing the 850 zero line drop southeast of them and a big blob of QPF forgetting its a 6-hour ENDING map. The precipitation is coming to an end or has ended by the time it cools off aloft. Most of the precip falls from hour 72-75. At hour 75, the temps are plenty cold and hour 75-78 another .10" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Bufkit is close. Has about .35"-.40" as snow and .16" as rain. Doubt it would accumulate to 4"-8". Biggest part of it is during CCB where .30" falls in 3 hours or so and temps dynamically cool. Would probably be 2"-4" of wet slop, verbatim But it's definitely colder and better then previous runs. One more nudge SE and NYC would be all snow. ? the buffkit i have shows lga at 1.4 of snow... Was that the buffkit for the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think it depends on the depth of the warm layer, which is barely existent to begin with. A shallow layer at 0C is not going to melt snowflakes to produce sleet. I you want to see sleet you would need a deep layer of slightly above freezing temperatures or a shallow layer of "well above" freezing temps, or any combination of the two. I just assumed that if 850's were warm, then there was probably a thicker warm layer. I didn't think to check a Skew T though... Although for near PHL, everything from 800 down to almost 950 is warm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Most of the precip falls from hour 72-75. At hour 75, the temps are plenty cold and hour 75-78 another .10" falls. hr 72-75 has a sleet signature...925mb layer and around there is above freezing... Yea the gfs run did deff trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 ? the buffkit i have shows lga at 1.4 of snow... Was that the buffkit for the city? Qpf wise it has about .35" as snow. Either way, it needs to cool off quicker and low needs to be SE more or NYC will not get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Qpf wise it has about .35" as snow. Either way, it needs to cool off quicker and low needs to be SE more or NYC will not get accumulating snow. thats what i have for lga http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=klga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Gosh I think it would be hard for all snow even back towards my area let alone the big cities. The column does not cool in time to provide accumulations for I-95 and given warmer surface temperatures, even snow that would fall would have a hard time accumulating after the rain. Again this is all verbatum on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 If nothing else there's going to be a very interesting snow/ice conglomeration on the ground next week. Walking in the snow before the ice this morning there was clearly a crunch layer about 2 inches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 where the heck are people getting 4-8 from the gfs for the nyc this run? hr 75 snowfall map has the 4-8 at or kissing the city....text output prove that to be wrong...that being said there are things going against this event....but i feel the trend has been better in the models today.....we know ur thoughts about the pattern being crap, which is true. But i cant help but feel a bit encourage about todays runs...pattern going to foward after this storm looks nothing like winter is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hr 75 snowfall map has the 4-8 at or kissing the city....text output prove that to be wrong...that being said there are things going against this event....but i feel the trend has been better in the models today.....we know ur thoughts about the pattern being crap, which is true. But i cant help but feel a bit encourage about todays runs...pattern going to foward after this storm looks nothing like winter is dead that map could be throwing in sleet in as snowfall accum probably... yea i deff think the models trended better, they need to shift about another 50 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 that map could be throwing in sleet in as snowfall accum probably... yea i deff think the models trended better, they need to shift about another 50 miles east. 50 miles is pretty much less than the margin of error in these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 50 miles is pretty much less than the margin of error in these models. o yea its deff possible, im not saying that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 that map could be throwing in sleet in as snowfall accum probably... yea i deff think the models trended better, they need to shift about another 50 miles east. Showing 6.4" up to the north of NYC http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah I know. Also this year the timing seems to be off by more than a day sometimes with these systems, so maybe it can come more at night instead of daytime. That may help a bit if it were to snow with it sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Most of the precip falls from hour 72-75. At hour 75, the temps are plenty cold and hour 75-78 another .10" falls. Not that details matter at this point, but look at soundings instead of relying on the precip type algorithms. Throughout those hours, not only is the surface is above freezing, but the elevated warm layer is above freezing as well. There would probably be sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It is way to early to tell. I remember the last Sunday's 18Z model run that gave NYC 8" of snow from Tuesday event and more ice from today's. After that run the storm trended north and the rest is history. If the models trends a little more south tonight and tommorow, then we can say snow for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Showing 6.4" up to the north of NYC http://www.meteor.ia...=gfsm&site=kswf I think HPN (White Plains) is almost all snow on the 18z GFS. It's likely to be a marginal system where the NW suburbs get far more snow than the 5 Boroughs. Elevation and distance from the water will probably be key given the lack of antecedent cold air and retreating high pressure offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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