Grothar Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nothing is going to flood any time soon. That snowpack is now jam packed with 4-7"+ water in some spots. I sampeled my yard yesterday before the ice. The top 10-12" was not so bad, probably solid ice now thanks to the ice storm I just had. The bottom 12"+ was a solid block of ice. Now I probably have 24"+ of solid ice with a nice layer of sleet to top it all off. it's going to take temps well up into the 40's for a few days to really have an impact. Once the snow begins to melt, it will begin to runoff into the reservoir's and rivers initially leading to small rises. If the warm up continues and the snow continues to melt, now we are really setting the stage for a big problem. Of course, every bomb needs a fuse and without a major rain event to go along with the snowmelt the effects would be minimal. However, the typical storm pattern in March-April is through the Mississippi river valley and mid-level lows have a tendency to close off and pump moisture northward as was the case last March. If we get a 2-3" widespread rainfall either during the height of the snowmelt or shortly after flood zones are in serious trouble. As we saw in 2010, you don't need to have a large snowpack still on the ground when the rain hits, by that time the TNT is already stacked waiting for ignition. Here is the TNT warning signal http://www.youtube.com/swf/l.swf?video_id=kYUpkPTcqPY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The H5 depiction on the new Nam is terrible, and their is no high over SE Canada. I guess if you like some glorified disorganized periods of snow this is the setup for you. Don't get me wrong, I'll take my 3-6" here in Morris County but this has the potential to be a major bust with critical shifts late in the game. Wouldn't be suprised if in later runs the steady precip remains to our north unless the H5 makes huges improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 HPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Interesting set of analogs coming up through 96hrs. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=096&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mecca Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nah, surface temps are still too warm at 78: http://mag.ncep.noaa...011+18UTC+078HR I still think this has the potential to be a moderate snowfall just to the northwest of I-95. It's very close, about 30 miles further east and a stronger low would do the trick. Also, seeing as though these models (NAM, GFS, Euro) miserably failed with the temp. profiles for this last storm, there's nothing saying that this isn't being modeled cold enough. A stronger low will not do the trick if the low is close to the coast which will be good for Orange county and points north. This low has to be positioned 50 miles due east of A.C. and travel N.E. Anything closer means rain for the City, though Manhattan this season seems to be getting the most instead of the least as in a normal year. If this low slides off around North Carolina we could be in business. Lows sliding off the coast further north has not been well for the city since they trend to hug the coast or go OTS from that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z gfs looks like a pretty good hit for nyc and north jesey...ne pa and lehigh valley look to get hit with a good event also..... hr 75 nyc goes to snow and continues to snow until hr 81....phl picks up a bit of snow also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z GFS is a very nice hit for central/eastern PA and NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Gotta love the trends today with everything going east. One more push and this could be a fun little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 18z gfs looks like a pretty good hit for nyc and north jesey...ne pa and lehigh valley look to get hit with a good event also..... hr 75 nyc goes to snow and continues to snow until hr 81....phl picks up a bit of snow also Yeah. NYC goes to snow as CCB cranks over us. Somewhere between 72 and 75, NYC switches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hr 72 snowfall map is 4-8 from landcaster-NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Gotta love the trends today with everything going east. One more push and this could be a fun little event. ya could easily put down a fresh 3-6 which would be welcomed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 With the low a little weaker and to the east can keep this all snow, but the 18z GFS shows a nice rain to snow event, with the potential for this to be an all-snow mini event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS is nearly all snow for places to the north and west of the city. .5-.7 QPF as well, likely warning event for the suburbs if the GFS verifies verbatim. The difference from 12z was that the backside vort in the plains did not phase into the main vort as well as it did at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hr 75 snowfall map...4-8 for all of eastern pa-mason dixon line...4-8 for nnj and including nyc-down to ewr....2-4 from ttn-edison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 You guys realize we've had 1 pure rainstorm since the middle of dec. Pretty crazy. As it looks now, neither event next wk will be purely rain..so that means we will have gone 2 months without that which I think is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 hr 75 snowfall map...4-8 for all of eastern pa-mason dixon line...4-8 for nnj and including nyc-down to ewr....2-4 from ttn-edison Wow, that gets into Philly then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Beautiful. Moderate snowstorm in a terrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wow, that gets into Philly then? its close...prob 1-2 in the city itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 its close...prob 1-2 in the city itself Ah so just NW does better than the city. nicee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Beautiful. Moderate snowstorm in a terrible pattern. Only this year. Verbatim I still think its a 1-3 storm for the city and maybe 4-8 N and W. Would think initially city would have problems sticking, at least to paved surfaces. Temperatures are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Beautiful. Moderate snowstorm in a terrible pattern. John, we really can't lose this year.... Absolutely remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Beautiful. Moderate snowstorm in a terrible pattern. does that really surprise you in this whacky winter? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Beautiful. Moderate snowstorm in a terrible pattern. And depending on ratios and blah blah blah some of us could be looking at significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This is just the kind of winter where things come together and give us something, whether it be sleet, snow , or freezing rain. It can't just be all rain can't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 LOL...I don't think I'm buying any rain solution until april the way this year is going. Jeeez....even a lakes cutter just gave us an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This is just the kind of winter where things come together and give us something, whether it be sleet, snow , or freezing rain. It can't just be all rain can't it. its funny, and I'm not calling you out specifically because I'm partially guilty of it myself, but a bunch of us thought that if we squandered our potential in Dec. we were toast, at least until late winter. Now it seems with a couple moderate events (2-4,3-6) we could easily surpass 95-96 seeing that we only need another 18in in the park, which so far this season is child's play. We would need like 3-4 small/moderate events with maybe one significant event over the next 6-8 wks. Another other winter that might be asking for too much, but based on how things have played out so far, I could easily see us surpass this with a big March snowstorm which we haven't seen more than 1-2 times in the past 5-10 years. Also long range on the 18z looks cold after our storm riding up the arctic cold front passes. We may be talking about snow pack for 2 straight months at this rate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 LOL...I don't think I'm buying any rain solution until april the way this year is going. Jeeez....even a lakes cutter just gave us an ice storm It's really unbelievable to be honest. The pattern sucks, and we get frozen precip. The pattern is great and we get historic storms. Please let this continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's really unbelievable to be honest. The pattern sucks, and we get frozen precip. The pattern is great and we get historic storms. Please let this continue I agree that we've been incredibly fortunate this winter, but people have to remember the pattern doesn't totally suck; we have a huge -EPO block that's keeping a lot of cold air pooled to our north in Canada, allowing us to stay frozen in storm tracks that would be normally be rain. The effect of this -EPO is enhanced by the La Niña/+QBO regime allowing the PV to be stronger than normal, bringing colder air to the North with the major blocking we've seen. We've also had a significant drop in global temperatures since last winter with such a strong cold pool in the Pacific, so that may be having its effects as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I agree that we've been incredibly fortunate this winter, but people have to remember the pattern doesn't totally suck; we have a huge -EPO block that's keeping a lot of cold air pooled to our north in Canada, allowing us to stay frozen in storm tracks that would be normally be rain. The effect of this -EPO is enhanced by the La Niña/+QBO regime allowing the PV to be stronger than normal, bringing colder air to the North with the major blocking we've seen. We've also had a significant drop in global temperatures since last winter with such a strong cold pool in the Pacific, so that may be having its effects as well. I'm just pointing out that it doesn't seem to matter what the pattern is, it still manages to produce. I don't think that is changing anytime soon. We went through a period at the end of Dec where we had to wait about 2 wks to cash in on a great pattern. Then we just absolutely killed it in Jan (obv) and now I think we probably have to wait a good wk or 2 to have a solid major storm potential. I think we definitely cash in (esp up here) with at least the storm for this wknd, and depending on how our next storm develops along the arctic front maybe with that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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