IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Mid-February the NAO finaly turns - again and the PNA remains +. Plenty of cold air should be avaiable and then its just a matter of the energy timing it right leading to a favorable phase. BTW based off the east at 00z for 72 hrs out. The #2 analog looks like a pretty good match. It's from 12/14/81. Gave areas 20 miles NW of the cities 8+ and a swath from far NW NJ and NE PA up into Western Mass and central NE 12-18". Big cities saw mostly rain with freezing rain along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 5:14 PM, jgir said: Most recent Canadian showing cold air wins and storm is a bust ... http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Yup. GGEM is way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The GGEM went OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The way the GGEM is handeling the features looks much more like the NAM. Right now the GFS is in a different world. The GFS overall digs the trough much further south and allows another piece of energy to drop into Wisconsin and close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 5:15 PM, ag3 said: Yup. GGEM is way out to sea. Intersting, anyone have the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 5:15 PM, ag3 said: Yup. GGEM is way out to sea. I'd rather have the storm OTS than either plain rain or ice. That being said, I still think there are at least minor impacts in the PHL and NYC areas from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 5:20 PM, SACRUS said: Intersting, anyone have the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z UKMET completely disagrees with the 12z Canadian and 12z NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, there has to be some reason that the UKMET has much higher verification scores than the Canadian and the NOGAPS. Until the Euro changes it's tune, no reason to change course. Right now the three most accurate models have it (EURO, GFS, UKMET), and the two least accurate models (Canadian & NOGAPS) don't. Let's see what the ECMWF says in a few minutes. On 2/2/2011 at 5:36 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: yea its pretty challenging .... first part of winter ukie was OTS with like every coastal while nogaps and canadian were along the coast. i really dont know what to think of this yet...the flow is fast and the blocking isnt there. but havent we said this ALOT already? it does look like there might some decent confluence over SE canada with some resemblence of cold air over the NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 5:36 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said: yea its pretty challenging .... first part of winter ukie was OTS with like every coastal while nogaps and canadian were along the coast. i really dont know what to think of this yet...the flow is fast and the blocking isnt there. but havent we said this ALOT already? it does look like there might some decent confluence over SE canada with some resemblence of cold air over the NE.... Too early to think anything. Keep monitoring and see how it plays out as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Low developing over the Gulf at 54 hrs. Precip shield as far north as North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Weak area of low pressure along the NC coast at 66 hrs. Precip shield up to the DelMarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Weak and broad area of low pressure over the entire southeast at 72 hrs. Light snow all the way up to NYC. 850 line runs through south Jersey and just south of the Mason/Dixon line and 32 degree line just south of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 At 84 hrs. sub 1004 low over the DelMarva. 850 line right over NYC and south westward through Hunterdon County, NJ and SE PA. 32 degree line just NW of there. Light precip throughout the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 at 84 hrs., sub 1000 just off the Jersey shore and south of New England. Moderate precip over the entire area. 850 and 32 degree line basically have not moved, just NW of NYC, and running SW from there and NW through CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This run is a nice 3-6" snowstorm for the Lehigh Valley, NE PA, and NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 at 90 hrs. sub 992 just east of the Benchmark. 850 and 32 degree line crashed off shore. Light snow still falling throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 6:11 PM, 1234abc said: at 90 hrs. sub 992 just east of the Benchmark. 850 and 32 degree line crashed off shore. Light snow still falling throughout the area. Much better run, it sounds like. Positive signs from models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 6:10 PM, LVblizzard said: This run is a nice 3-6" snowstorm for the Lehigh Valley, NE PA, and NW NJ. Sounds colder than previous runs. This may not be a big snow, but seems we all can get snow for at least part of the storm. And there's potential after that and when the cold gets re-established at the very end of the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Total precip is about .50-.60 throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Precip shield makes it all the way back to Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 6:12 PM, ag3 said: Much better run, it sounds like. Positive signs from models today. Sounds like a nice little snow event for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 4:55 PM, Weather Mecca said: I only envy them because I would love to get that 2 feet. I'm greedy. I want all of the snow. Yeh, we got 20inches then 19, but lets get on the roll and break that record. I was a little kid when we got the 76 inches. I barely remember. That means your still a little kid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 6:14 PM, 1234abc said: Precip shield makes it all the way back to Central PA. Do you have the QPF for the Lower Susquehanna Valley region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Probably between .50-.60 On 2/2/2011 at 6:16 PM, Blizzard92 said: Do you have the QPF for the Lower Susquehanna Valley region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GGEM had a nice overrunning event developing Day 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 On 2/2/2011 at 6:16 PM, Blizzard92 said: Do you have the QPF for the Lower Susquehanna Valley region? About 0.50" at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Euro also brings a little more precip to the area on Tuesday. As 850's crash off shore but surface temps are over 32. Details still seem questionable though. Looks like .10-.20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thanks for the answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sub 992 near Hatteras at 198hrs. Light snow through NJ and CT. This looks really interesting. Canadian like. HEAVY precip from VA down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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