Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hr 168 850's offshore....surface in eastern PA....broad area of low pressure off eastern LI...preciep all the way back to central pa hr 178 light preciep still in the area...decent hit for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hr 168 850's offshore....surface in eastern PA....broad area of low pressure off eastern LI...preciep all the way back to central pa hr 178 light preciep still in the area...decent hit for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's looking more and more like a thread the needle event for I-95, but better for that NE PA screwzone that has been complaining all winter. Hey now.....that's not nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Per the 6z runs it doesn't look like much of a storm here, and the 850's on both the NAM and GFS are pretty far inland. On this suite it looks like it'll be a mixed mess again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The high pressure sliding off the va coast kills this threat. The return se flow around it torches the bl and 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The high pressure sliding off the va coast kills this threat. The return se flow around it torches the bl and 850s That's one problem but the other is that the storm is late to organize and tracks too far inland. Even considering the poor position of the high pressure, we'd have a chance for snow if the storm tracked near the Benchmark and exploded earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think there will be more of a ZR threat than current forecasts indicate from N and W of PHL and NYC into interior SW CT, especially if the secondary intensifies decently. These SW flow events nearly always have precip. arrive earlier than forecast, and I would expect to see precip. arriving in the PHL area before dawn Sat and in the NYC area by mid Sat morning. With light winds and clear skies initially Fri night, the NAM has temps plunging into the mid-upper teens from the north of a line from the Lehigh Valley to Morristown, NJ to the Putnam/Westchester County NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think the better snow threat for Mid-Atlantic/NE is the day 7 threat per 00z/6z runs...especially if the front clears the coast and a storm forms on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think there will be more of a ZR threat than current forecasts indicate from N and W of PHL and NYC into interior SW CT, especially if the secondary intensifies decently. These SW flow events nearly always have precip. arrive earlier than forecast, and I would expect to see precip. arriving in the PHL area before dawn Sat and in the NYC area by mid Sat morning. With light winds and clear skies initially Fri night, the NAM has temps plunging into the mid-upper teens from the north of a line from the Lehigh Valley to Morristown, NJ to the Putnam/Westchester County NY border. Aaaaahhh I'm right there on the Westchester/Putnam line and I'm looking at over .5" of ice right now with pouring rain and 28*. So if you're right that means that right after I finish scraping this off I'm gonna get it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z NAM makes a mess of it but still rain for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z NAM would be a good hit for NE PA, for posters such as Voyager and PSUHazletonWx. Looks like rain/slop for the Lehigh Valley/NW NJ south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z NAM would be a good hit for NE PA, for posters such as Voyager and PSUHazletonWx. Looks like rain/slop for the Lehigh Valley/NW NJ south. About time inland areas get a shot at a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Good sign if we can keep this up - maybe not for the event this weekend but things look better for the middle of the month. PNA looks to get re-established and the NAO begins to go slightly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Good sign if we can keep this up - maybe not for the event this weekend but things look better for the middle of the month. PNA looks to go slightly positive right when the NAO begins to go slightly negative. Definitely a nice sign but I wouldn't be quick to rule out this weekend's storm just yet. Considering all the uncertainty and fluctuations with these models, I won't trust them until at the earliest Friday 12z-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Definitely a nice sign but I wouldn't be quick to rule out this weekend's storm just yet. Considering all the uncertainty and fluctuations with these models, I won't trust them until at the earliest Friday 12z-18z. It's hard to get excited when the JP zone will likely be a high end advisory type snow after the type of winter we have had. I think this will be a very nice storm for some of those that have been getting shafted. I say let them have fun and bring on a mid February coastal bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 The nam is actually not all that bad. 850s and surface are literally 20 miles north oof 95. By what peoplle were saying I thought they'd be somewhere in west pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's hard to get excited when the JP zone will likely be a high end advisory type snow after the type of winter we have had. I think this will be a very nice storm for some of those that have been getting shafted. I say let them have fun and bring on a mid February coastal bomb. Hey nothing wrong with a freshened up snow pack. Something like 3-5 inches is nothing to shrug at and is a respectable winter event for this area. I actually wouldn't mind a storm like that. The 4-5 inch snow we had just prior to the last big one was a nice event and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The nam is actually not all that bad. 850s and surface are literally 20 miles north oof 95. By what peoplle were saying I thought they'd be somewhere in west pa. Agreed and it is also the NAM at 72-84 hours so you are just as effective throwing a dart at a microscopic dart board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Hey nothing wrong with a freshened up snow pack. Something like 3-5 inches is nothing to shrug at and is a respectable winter event for this area. I actually wouldn't mind a storm like that. The 4-5 inch snow we had just prior to the last big one was a nice event and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I agree, would have killed for a 3-6 event most years.....we're spoiled this year for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 As much as I would love to see another 0.5-1" of QPF packed onto our current snowpack this is starting to look scary for our folks living in flood areas. Won't take much more than a nice mid-level low closing off over the Tennessee Valley in mid-March to put everyone under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z gfs not that bad for nw areas....prob get frozen in the citys then to rain...eastern pa...snow-ice-snow....gfs is further east with the track and really wraps the low up...gets the citys back to snow...north jersey and nyc get the tail end of the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z gfs not that bad for nw areas....prob get frozen in the citys then to rain...eastern pa...snow-ice-snow....gfs is further east with the track and really wraps the low up...gets the citys back to snow...north jersey and nyc get the tail end of the ccb Very, very close for city. Move that 50 miles east and we are in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Very, very close for city. Move that 50 miles east and we are in the game. yes...real close...will be ineresting to see gefs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We got plenty of time for that one; I think its a good shot for snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 About time inland areas get a shot at a good hit. thanks for the kind words friend. hopefully we can finally get a snow here that totals more than 4 inches.we def deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 surface might not reflect it...but the artic front seems to hold alot of potential for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 surface might not reflect it...but the artic front seems to hold alot of potential for next week Agreed and also of note is the parade of cold that just continues to persist on most of the modeling day in and day out. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mecca Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It seems to me that the temps will be in the mid to upper 30's at the surface. Accuweather is predicting snow in the pm changing to rain during the day with the temps in the mid 30's. The LP is too close to the coast. If we can get that pushed out 50 miles in the AO, then we can get excited. Im beginning to worry that we dont get that 20 inches we need to break the yearly record. Im dreaming of the monster storm of which we break the daily, monthly, and yearly at the same time. Only in my dreams.....How I envy Chicagoland right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It seems to me that the temps will be in the mid to upper 30's at the surface. Accuweather is predicting snow in the pm changing to rain during the day with the temps in the mid 30's. The LP is too close to the coast. If we can get that pushed out 50 miles in the AO, then we can get excited. Im beginning to worry that we dont get that 20 inches we need to break the yearly record. Im dreaming of the monster storm of which we break the daily, monthly, and yearly at the same time. Only in my dreams.....How I envy Chicagoland right now. We have had way more snow than Chicago this year, why would you possibly envy them as a snow lover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Most recent Canadian showing cold air wins and storm is a bust ... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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