cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm curious to see what the mid shift does at DVN tonight. The first event looks to be mostly sub advisory across our CWA, but if we hold off until after that snowfall then issue a watch, we have less than 36 hours lead time. If we issue during that snowfall you run into public confusion. It might be an ugly double headline for a while. Ya i was wondering how places with the WAA advection handles the storm like dtw it really isn't that much separation in the event time (12-18 hrs) but they clearly are 2 different events in the publics eye. That lull between the WAA and Defo band of snow is going to catch ppl off guard if they aren't properly warned, knowing ppl will associate the storm as 1 event if not properly informed. I think that the tuesday night main event needs to be highlighted highly so that the public doesn't think that the break in precip is the end of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 besides the stronger winds possibly ripping apart the bigger dendrites, I think that is the main factor in what could cut down on the possible historic snowfall amounts. That defo band looks to be moving pretty fast. I'm hoping the amount of moisture being wrapped around into defo band, heavy rates, and higher ratios will help offset that to some extent. The pattern is definitely progressive so I've done my best to keep this possibility in the back of my head for every storm we've had on the EC. Lo and behold, every storm system has trended faster as it approaches. I've been watching the guidance over the past day or so for potential impacts out this way, and one thing I have noted is the de-amplified trend at H5 over the Eastern Plains..whereas older runs were closing off the H5 low, they are now delaying that occurrence (I believe tonight's 00z OP GFS closes it over IL), or not doing it at all. That's usually the first red flag I look for in regards to a potentially more progressive solution. A more progressive solution definitely wouldn't take away the impact of the event...with all the modeling locked in like this it's definitely more than likely that this becomes a high impact event with a wide swath of heavy snow. But these are just things we should always look at objectively...and the progressive nature of the pattern argues we keep a keen eye on the mid level features...and the surface track and resulting QPF owing to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just LOL'ed. I guess I post too much in the NYC/Philly threads haha since you know me that well. Man, you will forever be in my memory after you led us to the promised land on December 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ya i was wondering how places with the WAA advection handles the storm like dtw it really isn't that much separation in the event time (12-18 hrs) but they clearly are 2 different events in the publics eye. That lull between the WAA and Defo band of snow is going to catch ppl off guard if they aren't properly warned, knowing ppl will associate the storm as 1 event if not properly informed. I think that the tuesday night main event needs to be highlighted highly so that the public doesn't think that the break in precip is the end of the main storm. We've tried to hit the two separate snow events in the HWO and in our web headline. There is definitely the risk that the public declares the storm a bust when the front overrunning precip comes to an end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man, you will forever be in my memory after you led us to the promised land on December 26th. I think you should definitely post over here more. You are the best 20 year old still in college forecaster I have ever met--honestly better than most out of college for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man, you will forever be in my memory after you led us to the promised land on December 26th. Didn't you get like over 30 inches on Dec. 26th? That must have been amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm curious to see what the mid shift does at DVN tonight. The first event looks to be mostly sub advisory across our CWA, but if we hold off until after that snowfall then issue a watch, we have less than 36 hours lead time. If we issue during that snowfall you run into public confusion. It might be an ugly double headline for a while. Yeah that's a very good point. I've already run into some confusion when trying to explain how this will be sort of a two part storm to some of my friends and family. Even though it's basically the same storm system maybe it's better to give the perception that it's really two systems, with the second one being the strong one. You don't want to play down the WAA system too much, as it could lay down some low WWA snows, but the main concern is the main system later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just took 3 tylenol PMs or I will have major issues sleeping.. I can't believe this is about to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Didn't you get like over 30 inches on Dec. 26th? That must have been amazing. 30 inches on the nose here..I have trouble believing I will ever see anything so incredible in my life. Didn't mean to derail the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just took 3 tylenol PMs or I will have major issues sleeping.. I can't believe this is about to take place. LOL if was back home i would have my alarm set for 5 am to check the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think you should definitely post over here more. You are the best 20 year old still in college forecaster I have ever met--honestly better than most out of college for that matter. Thanks a bunch, bud, it means a lot coming from you. But I still have a whole ton to learn. I think part of what makes meteorology so great is that you can learn from experience, moreso than most can in any other professional field. Every storm is different, and you literally can pick up forecasting skills and experience over a weeks time. It's just awesome, and I'm totally addicted to it. Absolutely stoked to make a career out of something I enjoy doing so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah that's a very good point. I've already run into some confusion when trying to explain how this will be sort of a two part storm to some of my friends and family. Even though it's basically the same storm system maybe it's better to give the perception that it's really two systems, with the second one being the strong one. You don't want to play down the WAA system too much, as it could lay down some low WWA snows, but the main concern is the main system later on. There is also some heavy, heavy pressure from neighboring offices (which shall remain nameless ) to get the WSWs as early as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 30 inches on the nose here..I have trouble believing I will ever see anything so incredible in my life. Didn't mean to derail the thread i was watching some of the webcams during that event, it was incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just took 3 tylenol PMs or I will have major issues sleeping.. I can't believe this is about to take place. You've got the disease, man. I've lost count of how many days I have pulled all-nighters this winter for snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks a bunch, bud, it means a lot coming from you. But I still have a whole ton to learn. I think part of what makes meteorology so great is that you can learn from experience, moreso than most can in any other professional field. Every storm is different, and you literally can pick up forecasting skills and experience over a weeks time. It's just awesome, and I'm totally addicted to it. Absolutely stoked to make a career out of something I enjoy doing so much. And that never really stops either, you are constantly learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think you should definitely post over here more. You are the best 20 year old still in college forecaster I have ever met--honestly better than most out of college for that matter. Hey I'm 20 years old too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There is also some heavy, heavy pressure from neighboring offices (which shall remain nameless ) to get the WSWs as early as last night. ya.... i can understand both sides of the issue. It'll be interesting to see how the offices coord watches/advisories tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There is also some heavy, heavy pressure from neighboring offices (which shall remain nameless ) to get the WSWs as early as last night. Haha, yeah I can imagine. It's probably bad enough dealing with all the different opinions in your own office, let alone all of the coordination that's needed with surrounding CWAs. I'm starting to get the feeling the QC may have it's first 12" storm in over a decade. I wouldn't put it in a forecast yet, but if things continue on the current course then we may get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks a bunch, bud, it means a lot coming from you. But I still have a whole ton to learn. I think part of what makes meteorology so great is that you can learn from experience, moreso than most can in any other professional field. Every storm is different, and you literally can pick up forecasting skills and experience over a weeks time. It's just awesome, and I'm totally addicted to it. Absolutely stoked to make a career out of something I enjoy doing so much. Who cares about derailing threads--it is the late crew so all is well That said--you have a great attitude and are setting yourself up for some serious opportunities. Keep up the kick-butt work and always remember that after you graduate the learning only begins when it comes to meteorology. I wish I had an ounce of your ability at your age. As for the CMC--it stinks most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i was watching some of the webcams during that event, it was incredible My home weather station recorded blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours. I posted a few times that night that if there was a heaven on earth, I was pretty sure I was in it. These are my favorite two pictures that I took from the event..I literally went on a walk and didn't come back for two hours. I'm pretty much as big of a snow lover as they come. From a meteorological standpoint the event was equally as awesome. Never in my lifetime have I seen such a tremendous turnaround within 54 hours of forecast modeling. We went west literally 250 miles in a few model cycles. It's known in the NYC/PHL threads as "The Christmas Miracle". Awesome stuff..and also an awesome case study..which I'm already working on with some fellow meteorology majors. http://i.imgur.com/48Bn3.jpg http://i.imgur.com/wYSw5.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My home weather station recorded blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours. I posted a few times that night that if there was a heaven on earth, I was pretty sure I was in it. These are my favorite two pictures that I took from the event..I literally went on a walk and didn't come back for two hours. I'm pretty much as big of a snow lover as they come. From a meteorological standpoint the event was equally as awesome. Never in my lifetime have I seen such a tremendous turnaround within 54 hours of forecast modeling. We went west literally 250 miles in a few model cycles. It's known in the NYC/PHL threads as "The Christmas Miracle". Awesome stuff..and also an awesome case study..which I'm already working on with some fellow meteorology majors. http://i.imgur.com/48Bn3.jpg http://i.imgur.com/wYSw5.jpg That is awesome! Best kind of snow too--the powdery fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks a bunch, bud, it means a lot coming from you. But I still have a whole ton to learn. I think part of what makes meteorology so great is that you can learn from experience, moreso than most can in any other professional field. Every storm is different, and you literally can pick up forecasting skills and experience over a weeks time. It's just awesome, and I'm totally addicted to it. Absolutely stoked to make a career out of something I enjoy doing so much. I'm one of the same my man. can't wait to have a career in this one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Who cares about derailing threads--it is the late crew so all is well That said--you have a great attitude and are setting yourself up for some serious opportunities. Keep up the kick-butt work and always remember that after you graduate the learning only begins when it comes to meteorology. I wish I had an ounce of your ability at your age. As for the CMC--it stinks most of the time It's funny because I had a long conversation about this exact thing with one of my professors the other day. He went into detail about how he still learns things on a daily basis...which I find completely awesome. It's so rare to find something like that, too. Thanks again for all the nice words. And yeah..the CMC blows for a lack of a kinder word. It's ensembles have become a pretty useful tool (I'm not sure if they have made any upgrades to them or anything, but they were decent last winter too)..and the RGEM can be rock solid inside 48 hours. But the GGEM global is becoming a joke at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm one of the same my man. can't wait to have a career in this one day. I didn't know you were a met student. NIU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is awesome! Best kind of snow too--the powdery fluff. Yeah, you've got that right. The 20" we had a few days ago was such a pain to shovel and deal with...it made me appreciate the December storm so much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Amazing Pictures My home weather station recorded blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours. I posted a few times that night that if there was a heaven on earth, I was pretty sure I was in it. These are my favorite two pictures that I took from the event..I literally went on a walk and didn't come back for two hours. I'm pretty much as big of a snow lover as they come. From a meteorological standpoint the event was equally as awesome. Never in my lifetime have I seen such a tremendous turnaround within 54 hours of forecast modeling. We went west literally 250 miles in a few model cycles. It's known in the NYC/PHL threads as "The Christmas Miracle". Awesome stuff..and also an awesome case study..which I'm already working on with some fellow meteorology majors. http://i.imgur.com/48Bn3.jpg http://i.imgur.com/wYSw5.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My home weather station recorded blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours. I posted a few times that night that if there was a heaven on earth, I was pretty sure I was in it. These are my favorite two pictures that I took from the event..I literally went on a walk and didn't come back for two hours. I'm pretty much as big of a snow lover as they come. From a meteorological standpoint the event was equally as awesome. Never in my lifetime have I seen such a tremendous turnaround within 54 hours of forecast modeling. We went west literally 250 miles in a few model cycles. It's known in the NYC/PHL threads as "The Christmas Miracle". Awesome stuff..and also an awesome case study..which I'm already working on with some fellow meteorology majors. http://i.imgur.com/48Bn3.jpg http://i.imgur.com/wYSw5.jpg Amazing pictures, thanks for sharing! One day I would love to witness that. My first and only blizzard was the Christmas Eve blizzard of '09 down here in OK....gusts to 55MPH with up to a foot of snow. Was the 1st blizzard warning for OKC in 30 years. May not see that here again in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My home weather station recorded blizzard conditions for 6 straight hours. I posted a few times that night that if there was a heaven on earth, I was pretty sure I was in it. These are my favorite two pictures that I took from the event..I literally went on a walk and didn't come back for two hours. I'm pretty much as big of a snow lover as they come. From a meteorological standpoint the event was equally as awesome. Never in my lifetime have I seen such a tremendous turnaround within 54 hours of forecast modeling. We went west literally 250 miles in a few model cycles. It's known in the NYC/PHL threads as "The Christmas Miracle". Awesome stuff..and also an awesome case study..which I'm already working on with some fellow meteorology majors. http://i.imgur.com/48Bn3.jpg http://i.imgur.com/wYSw5.jpg He also posted "I love everyone" a few times lol 30" would make me say the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haha, yeah I can imagine. It's probably bad enough dealing with all the different opinions in your own office, let alone all of the coordination that's needed with surrounding CWAs. I'm starting to get the feeling the QC may have it's first 12" storm in over a decade. I wouldn't put it in a forecast yet, but if things continue on the current course then we may get there. I definitely am more optimistic seeing the signals for a fair amount of precip to be thrown northwest of the low. As things stand right now though, I would have the heaviest snow just southeast of our CWA, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL if was back home i would have my alarm set for 5 am to check the models. Nah man, later today when I go home from work, I am skipping the 12z data for some sleep. Im running on about 5 hours since noon Friday. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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