BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFK: 0.05" OMA: 0.51" MSP: 0.30" LSE: 0.39" DSM: 0.88" JLN: 1.30" OKC: 0.90" STL: 1.13" PAH: 1.16" PIA: 1.50" DVN: 1.32" MSN: 0.86" FLD: 0.69" MKE: 1.27" ORD: 1.62" LAF: 1.40" IND: 1.39" DAY: 1.36" CMH: 1.23" GRR: 1.26" DTW: 1.30" CLE: 1.44" YYZ: 1.20" Nice hit for Cyclone and BowME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got some free time tonight, and dynamically this storm looks absolutely awesome. So here's a hand-drawn 00z/30 Euro QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like a Chicago style blizzard to me. Think the storm will be more intense than the globals are saying and closer to the NAM, which should trend a bit more intense and make this a rain storm for much of Ohio. 1999 was a freak show with the huge WAA snows then the freezing rain, this has some of that storms "ways". Euro implies mostly rain for OH, other than the NW 1/4 and the northern tier (CLE, etc). But yes this is a Chicago/NE IL special...well via the Euro anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFK: 0.05" OMA: 0.51" MSP: 0.30" LSE: 0.39" DSM: 0.88" JLN: 1.30" OKC: 0.90" STL: 1.13" PAH: 1.16" PIA: 1.50" DVN: 1.32" MSN: 0.86" FLD: 0.69" MKE: 1.27" ORD: 1.62" LAF: 1.40" IND: 1.39" DAY: 1.36" CMH: 1.23" GRR: 1.26" DTW: 1.30" CLE: 1.44" YYZ: 1.20" Welp, that's a new high for us. Try and improve on it tomorrow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nice hit for many many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got some free time tonight, and dynamically this storm looks absolutely awesome. So here's a hand-drawn 00z/30 Euro QPF map. Looks nice, thanks for doing that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFK: 0.05" OMA: 0.51" MSP: 0.30" LSE: 0.39" DSM: 0.88" JLN: 1.30" OKC: 0.90" STL: 1.13" PAH: 1.16" PIA: 1.50" DVN: 1.32" MSN: 0.86" FLD: 0.69" MKE: 1.27" ORD: 1.62" LAF: 1.40" IND: 1.39" DAY: 1.36" CMH: 1.23" GRR: 1.26" DTW: 1.30" CLE: 1.44" YYZ: 1.20" make that the 3rd run in a row with ORD being #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Earthlight! You are welcome here anytime. And I love the RSM qpf convective blobs--nice touch Thanks bud. And yeah the RSM members really struggle with convection. I've been meaning to ask about them. I use the SREFs a good bit when I'm forecasting for the EC, but I never really understood the secret as to why the RSM members are in there. They seem to have a really weird resolution...and they struggle big time with QPF bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got some free time tonight, and dynamically this storm looks absolutely awesome. So here's a hand-drawn 00z/30 Euro QPF map. thanks man, would love to here more analysis from you in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IF this storm hits as progged i wonder how plow services will be handled with all the budget crunches if they'll still hit all the subdivisions like they used 2. Could be a mess in a lot of areas for at least 3 days. OT i know just thought i'd bring it up as it relates to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those QPF totals are also with a weaker storm compared to 12z. A stronger storm is very well possible which will only increase those totals. EURO has been consistent as heck with this storm though, outside of two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got some free time tonight, and dynamically this storm looks absolutely awesome. So here's a hand-drawn 00z/30 Euro QPF map. Wow, that's some very impressive QPF to say the least. Thanks for the map dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is seriously a HUGE area of 1.25"+ on that map earthlight map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those QPF totals are also with a weaker storm compared to 12z. A stronger storm is very well possible which will only increase those totals. EURO has been consistent as heck with this storm though, outside of two runs. And so has the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks bud. And yeah the RSM members really struggle with convection. I've been meaning to ask about them. I use the SREFs a good bit when I'm forecasting for the EC, but I never really understood the secret as to why the RSM members are in there. They seem to have a really weird resolution...and they struggle big time with QPF bombs. I think the RSM is still based off the old GFS. It is spectral wave and meant to capture regional/mesoscale features. As a result--I believe it is less aggressively filtered and has some awful sub-grid scale parametrizations as well. I believe there is a non-hydro and hydro version--but the RSM in the mean is the hydro version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IF this storm hits as progged i wonder how plow services will be handled with all the budget crunches if they'll still hit all the subdivisions like they used 2. Could be a mess in a lot of areas for at least 3 days. OT i know just thought i'd bring it up as it relates to the storm. This might be one the select few times I will be glad to live on a fire route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This storm is beyond fathomable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks for the OKC QPF Chicago Storm! I'm happy with my 0.90" down here, but am shocked that it puts me near the bottom of the list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This might be one the select few times I will be glad to live on a fire route. Ya..... I have a feeling things might get ugly in the motor city if this storm is as large and massive as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is seriously a HUGE area of 1.25"+ on that map earthlight map. The areal coverage is incredible--I was thinking that very same thing when I was drawing out the map. That being said, there's plenty of support for it given the mid and upper level height field. That's a very favorable gradient developing as early as 66 hours. There's a ton of support for widespread heavy precipitation with a system like this. I think the most impressive thing to be is the consistent signal for a well developed CCB...which technically on the Euro really doesn't mature until it's over Northeast MO. That's why you're seeing the explosion of cold sector QPF at that time. Also keep in mind that the GFS, although it has a lesser amount of QPF to the northwest side of the closed mid- level centers...has to be considered here given the potentially progressive nature of the pattern aloft. With the energy splitting and the shortwave moving northeast (without being given much time to close off), you might have a well developed but faster moving CCB in store. Still lots of time, relatively speaking, to pin down details. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow .50 from the euro for here! That's like near 9-10" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Based on the SREF and the new Euro I may have to bump my earlier call of 7-10" for the QC. Even though potential for a foot or more is there, the safe bet is to keep it conservative at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost every member of the GFS ensembles has a stronger surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good to hear. I still see something along the 0z EURO but maybe a tad SE and stronger with the low. Any of them a good bit farther NW then the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Based on the SREF and the new Euro I may have to bump my earlier call of 7-10" for the QC. Even though potential for a foot or more is there, the safe bet is to keep it conservative at this point though. As Alek would say, you have found every way imaginable to get in on the good stuff this winter. Can't see this one being an exception. I think 10"+ is very reasonable for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Awesome storm... Going to cause a huge amount of chaos if it slams Chicago... flights canceled ...traffic jams... should be fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Based on the SREF and the new Euro I may have to bump my earlier call of 7-10" for the QC. Even though potential for a foot or more is there, the safe bet is to keep it conservative at this point though. I'm curious to see what the mid shift does at DVN tonight. The first event looks to be mostly sub advisory across our CWA, but if we hold off until after that snowfall then issue a watch, we have less than 36 hours lead time. If we issue during that snowfall you run into public confusion. It might be an ugly double headline for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The areal coverage is incredible--I was thinking that very same thing when I was drawing out the map. That being said, there's plenty of support for it given the mid and upper level height field. That's a very favorable gradient developing as early as 66 hours. There's a ton of support for widespread heavy precipitation with a system like this. I think the most impressive thing to be is the consistent signal for a well developed CCB...which technically on the Euro really doesn't mature until it's over Northeast MO. That's why you're seeing the explosion of cold sector QPF at that time. Also keep in mind that the GFS, although it has a lesser amount of QPF to the northwest side of the closed mid- level centers...has to be considered here given the potentially progressive nature of the pattern aloft. With the energy splitting and the shortwave moving northeast (without being given much time to close off), you might have a well developed but faster moving CCB in store. Still lots of time, relatively speaking, to pin down details. http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f84.gif besides the stronger winds possibly ripping apart the bigger dendrites, I think that is the main factor in what could cut down on the possible historic snowfall amounts. That defo band looks to be moving pretty fast. I'm hoping the amount of moisture being wrapped around into defo band, heavy rates, and higher ratios will help offset that to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, I just got a peek at the 00z Canadian..what a poor model run. I'm sure baroclinic has had something to say in regards to that It has the second piece of energy hundreds of miles further west than any other operational model at +72 hours back over N Arizona and closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, I just got a peek at the 00z Canadian..what a poor model run. I'm sure baroclinic has had something to say in regards to that It has the second piece of energy hundreds of miles further west than any other operational model at +72 hours back over N Arizona and closed off. I just LOL'ed. I guess I post too much in the NYC/Philly threads haha since you know me that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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