snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 what's your gut feeling Canuck? 16" for you, maybe 8-10" for me? You'll want the ul wave to amplify more up in Ottawa, because a weaker wave running into that confluence zone will tend to shunt the storm more E-W. I'd probably go closer to 6" for Ottawa attm, but if the models do trend more amplified higher amounts could verify. Maybe OL can chime in and give you a second opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 72hrs: 1000mb SLP in far S. Illinois. Nice hit for KC/DSM/DVN/ORD. 78hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP centered just south of IND. Nice hit from DSM to DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF 24hr precip at 87hrs... looks so different then (24hr precip at hr 87) what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Less intense through 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A 25 mile shift NW from the 0z euro, and it would be perfect here. HR 78: 1000 mb low S. IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 towel is thrown for central OH as far as snow goes. Rooting for an ice storm now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Rain for Indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF 24hr precip at 87hrs... Do you find the max precip fields to be more useful than the mean or prob of 0.25, 0.5, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Less intense through 78. Less intense but further north? Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 78hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP centered just south of IND. Nice hit from DSM to DTW. 84hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from MKE/ORD to YYZ. Track at this poitn and QPF shield shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 84hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from MKE/ORD to YYZ. Track at this poitn and QPF shield shifted north. def gonna bring zr to CLE then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Definitley north. About the same as the 12z imo, especially if it goes almost due east from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One request from everyone--please delete large images in replies. It can get cluttered looking at the same image 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 84hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from MKE/ORD to YYZ. Track at this poitn and QPF shield shifted north. perhaps Ottawa can get into the 10-15" zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Less intense but further north? Hmmm.... NAM did that too. With that monster high situated NW--it may very well be more intense based on gradient with a weaker surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 84hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from MKE/ORD to YYZ. Track at this poitn and QPF shield shifted north. 90hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP along the NY/PA border. Nice hit from MI to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks so different then (24hr precip at hr 87) what gives? The other image is the mean precip. The one I posted is the max. Take an average of the two images and that is probably the most accurate from that particular SREF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago gets 1.5-1.75 QPF through hr 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 sounds like the 3rd big run in a row for ORD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the way to the NY/PA line? That does seem at least 25-50 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago gets 1.5-1.75 QPF through hr 90. Hopefully MKE hits 1.00 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you guys are interested, I have a tool on my site that will show you how the GFS/NAM have trended for a specific forecast time.Here is the MSLP field for the GFS at 02.02.11.00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Rain for Indy? Certainly looks warmer with 2m temps for IND. Needless to say, LAF is very little snow via the Euro. Looks primarily zr/pl for here without knowing the specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you find the max precip fields to be more useful than the mean or prob of 0.25, 0.5, etc.? No, but it's certainly nice to look at lol. The main purpose is to show where the best precip distribution lays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 72hrs: 1000mb SLP in far S. Illinois. Nice hit for KC/DSM/DVN/ORD. Music to my ears. I may get a snowday at WIU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the way to the NY/PA line? That does seem at least 25-50 miles further north. It's further north in spots, but also a hair south in spots as well. SLP was near Evansvile on 12Z..looks to be W. Kentucky on 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 About the same as the 12z imo, especially if it goes almost due east from here. Maybe, but it's warmer (for central IN) and more north IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the way to the NY/PA line? That does seem at least 25-50 miles further north. More of a freezing rain track here. Be interesting to hear the qpf. Is there any way to tell on the EURO the 2m temps? Id imagine there being a much larger warm layer aloft here and I want to know if we keep the sneaky cold in here or if we change to plain rain on this run? Damn Euro is always the furthest north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like a closed 1004mb sfc center makes it to Binghamton, NY at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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