wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 In general, is lake enhancement factored in well with the totals for the southwest shores of Lake Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can I just take the average of BUFKIT from the GFS (2") and the NAM (11") and call it a day? 6.5", I'm done, take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's still pretty early, but my early call for the QC is 7-10" total including the WAA snow. This is pretty similar to what DVN mentioned in the AFD from earlier today. Peoria to Chicago is looking prime for a 12-18" event, with isolated higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It'd be nice to get a little consensus beforehand, but at this point I think we know our destiny is primarily snow or snow/sleet mix. To what degree is the question. One part of me agrees with you with the WAA usually being under-forecasted and holding on longer...while the other part thinks the dynamics can offset a somewhat marginal warm layer. Tough call at this point, but one has to assume it gets clearer the closer we get. From what I've gathered for my area it looks like the GFS wants to drop about a foot of snow with lots of mixing. The NAM wants to dump nearly 1.5in of ZR and only 4-5 inches of snow. The UK looks to take a southern track which would be good for mainly all snow here. GGEM sucks but its and ice storm and a thump of snow at the end. Whats the EURO going to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 From what I've gathered for my area it looks like the GFS wants to drop about a foot of snow with lots of mixing. The NAM wants to dump nearly 1.5in of ZR and only 4-5 inches of snow. The UK looks to take a southern track which would be good for mainly all snow here. GGEM sucks but its and ice storm and a thump of snow at the end. Whats the EURO going to say? We'll find out very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if you wanna watch the WAA snow develop here's a nice auto refreshing midwest mosaic. http://www.rwic.und.edu/cache/loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We'll find out very soon. If it shifted even just a shade south I'd prolly go outside and do a happy dance. I hope we've seen the last of any NW trend. But i've been burned before so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if you wanna watch the WAA snow develop here's a nice auto refreshing midwest mosaic. http://www.rwic.und....cache/loop.html nice...thanks for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd be shocked if the EURO deviated significantly from what it's been progging the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z ECMWF is basically a carbon copy of the 12z run through 36hrs at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if you wanna watch the WAA snow develop here's a nice auto refreshing midwest mosaic. http://www.rwic.und.edu/cache/loop.htmlthanks works great on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man I can't keep up with you guys, I just read about 30 pages since I left my house at 10pm to all the stuff so far this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Didn't see the eye candy maps posted NAM GFS I'm still a little ancy, particularly given the GGEM has the storm missing me completely. I would be happy with the above solution though. 8-10" isn't bad. Looks a bt like January 2-3,1999. That storm gave Toronto about 16" and Ottawa about 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 48 hour Euro is going to be a significant storm--very significant based off its height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF 24hr precip at 87hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z ECMWF is basically a carbon copy of the 12z run through 36hrs at the surface. 54hrs: 1004mb SLP in C. Texas. Widespread WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS BUFKIT produces 10-15" of snow at YYZ on 0.81" of QPF. Believe me, if ORD-DTW gets 18-24" I won't be envious. 10-15" is plenty. what's your gut feeling Canuck? 16" for you, maybe 8-10" for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I see Facebook perusing the threads--I wonder if it has any feedback to offer on the Euro so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm still a little ancy, particularly given the GGEM has the storm missing me completely. I would be happy with the above solution though. 8-10" isn't bad. Looks a bt like January 2-3,1999. That storm gave Toronto about 16" and Ottawa about 10". With the EURO looking like it'll rock, I wouldn't worry about the GEM. It's struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 54hrs: 1004mb SLP in C. Texas. Widespread WAA snows. 60hrs: 1004mb SLP in far NE. Texas. WAA snows in the OV/GL. Nice hit for OKC/ICT with main system precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro is going to come north some me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heights look higher towards here, so the precip shield is a bit farther NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro is going to come north some me thinks. It looks significant. Either N or just more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 60hrs: 1004mb SLP in far NE. Texas. WAA snows in the OV/GL. Nice hit for OKC/ICT with main system precip. 66hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. Arkansas. Nice hit for TUL/KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF 24hr precip at 87hrs... MDW bullseye FTW 1.75"+ out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF 24hr precip at 87hrs... Wow, best yet for my area: about 1.25"QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 66hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. Arkansas. Nice hit for TUL/KC. 72hrs: 1000mb SLP in far S. Illinois. Nice hit for KC/DSM/DVN/ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It looks significant. Either N or just more intense. Definitley north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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