Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have been praying we either have snow, sleet or rain. Your words while greatly appreciated are not what I want to hear. This has the makings of a long painful migraine for a lot of folks in the ice band. Thanks. I guess it will be on to the 0 and 12z to see if they drive a nail in our coffin or pry the lid off. It's hard to pin down the location of the ice band right now since the models are shifting and usual uncertainty on cold air depth, but the risk of not making any basic preparations is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 in what may be one of my hardest forecasts ever, I think I have it pretty well nailed down, Will fine tune tomorrow if I have time, looks pretty self-explanatory to me, Thinking surface temps will be a bit colder than models are forecasting but i'm going with a pretty good blend of different models here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 stormvista wrf is epic, much more then the globals have for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OT but another option just in case might be out by Schaumburg in Chicagostorm country, it would give you a little more cushion for a NW shift and has a ton of hotels and good highway access. All true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 JB 12-24 for chicago will tweak later ya never seen it before models are making JB look conservative ala known Chicago hype monster Jerry Taft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How is toledo area looking for qpf and mixing issues? Thanks guys and good luck to all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ya never seen it before models are making JB look conservative ala known Chicago hype monster Jerry Taft [Jerry Taft] 2-4" [/Jerry Taft] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've heard rumblings about thundersnow... does that look possible for Southeastern Michigan? Could any of the pros elaborate more on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just for the record, sounds like IND will be extending the Winter Storm Watch south to cover all of their CWA with LMK issuing watches to cover their farther Northern CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi everyone...new member here...always lurked since I don't have much met knowledge, and can't really contribute much But boy this storm has my interest...! OL...the fact that the Euro has been consistently increasing precip amounts our way (I am from, as a friend of mine from TO put it, "the arctic village that is Ottawa" haha)...showing 0.81 from 00z, along with temps below -10C throughout, shouldn't that be a good sign? The 00z GEFS also had good amounts, even though the op didn't. Since you are getting pumped, I take it things are looking up? I'll be cautiously pessimistic anyways, I'll get pumped when I see snow falling! My apologies for asking such questions, but I really can't read maps much to tell if things are looking up or getting pear-shaped! Hey Draxinar! welcome to the board.....i looked at the location first and thought hmmm, i wonder where he is....must be belleville or kingston. glad to see another from Ottawa. my parents live there and we have several members from in and arond Ottawa posting obs during big events. anyways, in such an epic setup for the MW here, its VERY busy here and understandably so..... so in order to keep things more organized and not get lost, i post more of my thoguhts regarding our backyards in the Upstate/North Country forum......(see Feb storm thread) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/10-upstate-new-yorkpennsylvania/ of course i hang out here most of the time in the interim.......but its such a big event i dont want things to get too congested. if i post here, it will be usualy about MW and southern ontario locations or the general weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just for the record, sounds like IND will be extending the Winter Storm Watch south to cover all of their CWA with LMK issuing watches to cover their farther Northern CWA would be smart if nothing more for continuity sake with what PAH has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All true. then again staying downtown and grabbing a beer or 6 with me tuesday evening sounds optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just for the record, sounds like IND will be extending the Winter Storm Watch south to cover all of their CWA with LMK issuing watches to cover their farther Northern CWA I can't wait to see IND's afd. This has damaging to catastrophic ice potential written all over it and I'm certainly growing more concerned for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We BARELY stay all snow on the GEGM. The mixing line literally stretches from Windsor to Metro Airport. I suspect DTX will add sleet to their forecast for Wayne/Washtenaw/Monroe/Lenawee counties. i believe Hoosier or someone from the MW once told me you have to smell the mix to get the big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 then again staying downtown and grabbing a beer or 6 with me tuesday evening sounds optimal. You all should have a blizz get together. Sorta like they did last winter in DC. If i lived there i know i would be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The drive from STL to CHI tuesday night sounds like the most hellish drive ever. From possible ice on the south end to the blizzard conditions up north, I bet the whole of I-55 in IL will be impassible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :wacko: :stun: did i miss something??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The drive from STL to CHI tuesday night sounds like the most hellish drive ever. From possible ice on the south end to the blizzard conditions up north, I bet the whole of I-55 in IL will be impassible! with idot budgets being cut back too on top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You all should have a blizz get together. Sorta like they did last winter in DC. If i lived there i know i would be in. unfortunately, most chicago area posters are an hour+ outside the city and even worse, not all 21, so the logistics are difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 2 inches of ice will probably end up giving STL it's worst natural disaster ever. being discussed in other regions it doesnt look good if current models hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i believe Hoosier or someone from the MW once told me you have to smell the mix to get the big snows So true. Growing up in NE IL, that's how she usually played out. The mix zone was always an arm's length away...but stay all snow and the glory was yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You know it is a significant storm when you have Wes (usedtobe) and earthlight posting in central with tornadotony making comments on winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the NWS knows how serious the ice concern is, they all know the low level cold will be colder. this really sucks..I am excited but also like holy crap. 1.5 to 2 inches of ice would be so bad...I don't want to lose power for 2-3 weeks. please make it sleet..give me a half foot of sleet and let me enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OT but is there anyway we can get these numerous storm threads archived so that in a year or two from now, they'll be easy to reference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z nam gives me 2-3 inches of freezing rain? lol, ok...well see you in a few months after I put my life back together..because my house might get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z nam gives me 2-3 inches of freezing rain? lol, ok...well see you in a few months after I put my life back together..because my house might get destroyed. got a chainsaw? start cutting. Well either cut now or cut later after they've fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OT but is there anyway we can get these numerous storm threads archived so that in a year or two from now, they'll be easy to reference? I expect to see some good rooftop video from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11723-january-31-february-2-historic-winter-storm-part-6/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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