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January 31-February 2 Potentially Historic Winter Storm


Hoosier

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Agree with tornadotony's comments on synoptic plus lake snow event for nw IN and Chicago and with Frivolous on his concern for icing from LAF to Ft. Wayne on south to I-70. I think it depends on where and when this storm occludes to allow colder air to filter in. I do think despite the strong WAA that it will be difficult to scour out the lower arctic layer. And I am amazed at precip going farther north and west on models. Wasn't there supposed to be some massive high in Montana? Anyway someone somewhere is going to get a hellacious ice storm. I think St. Louis on ne along and north of I-70.

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Yeah, if you hugged the NAM this afternoon... either way, I think the word is out and folks need to be prepared. Unless this becomes a trend. Face the music, there will be ice and snow in Central Indiana and lots of it.

So in your opinion the Euro isn't accurate for Central Indiana?

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Things sure have changed a bit since last night. There's a wooded area outside of my building so that could be interesting if we get a lot of ice. Gonna be tough to tell until right up to the event, unless things keep trending warmer.

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MKE upgrade SE wisconsin to blizzard watch

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...KENOSHA

1225 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN

EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL AND SYSTEM SNOWS INCREASE

MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL CONTINUES

TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER LOW ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY

THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION MONDAY

AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL 12 TO 18 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT

INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STORM TOTALS AROUND 2 FEET IN SOME AREAS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT

GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH WITH

HIGHEST WINDS IN OPEN AREAS AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DUE

TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS. WORST CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN

NEAR ZERO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND DRIFTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET

POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING BLIZZARD.

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Quick question. I am an official in southeastern Illinois, along U.S. Route 50, about half way in between I70 and I64, I am wondering what the impacts of this storm is going to be in my area. I have been concerned about a large ice storm, but from what I have read and seen that threat looks to be pushing to our north and west. Can anyone give me a little insight?

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<br />Jude was a great MET in cincy when he was here. he's right! The EURO has stuff for next Friday-Saturday.. Time to move on to that for us INDY, Cincy folks I guess.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Based on the weenie snows I've gotten this year, I'm not holding my breath on that storm.

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Quick question. I am an official in southeastern Illinois, along U.S. Route 50, about half way in between I70 and I64, I am wondering what the impacts of this storm is going to be in my area. I have been concerned about a large ice storm, but from what I have read and seen that threat looks to be pushing to our north and west. Can anyone give me a little insight?

It will depend on the track. If NAM/Euro are right then mainly rain. But the models at this point could be over playing the strength of this event and it still remains further S and E I think evenNWS Paducah even realizes the potential for a weaker, slightly less amplified storm (thus the Winter Storm WATCHES down to the Ohio River). In this case US50 corridor would definitely see a lot of ice. Bottom line at this point is, I would prepare today no matter what the models say. I would not risk it on this one.

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Updated CIPS analogs based off the 12z GFS.

36 hour western sector: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=WEST&model=GFS212&fhr=036&flg=new

1) 1/19/1993

2) 3/25/2002

3) 3/2/2002

36 hour central sector: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=036&flg=new

1) 1/17/1987

2) 3/1/1994

3) 3/29/1990

48 hour central sector: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=048&flg=new

1) 1/10/1993

2) 2/13/2007

3) 3/8/1998

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It will depend on the track. If NAM/Euro are right then mainly rain. But the models at this point could be over playing the strength of this event and it still remains further S and E I think evenNWS Paducah even realizes the potential for a weaker, slightly less amplified storm (thus the Winter Storm WATCHES down to the Ohio River). In this case US50 corridor would definitely see a lot of ice. Bottom line at this point is, I would prepare today no matter what the models say. I would not risk it on this one.

I have been praying we either have snow, sleet or rain. Your words while greatly appreciated are not what I want to hear. This has the makings of a long painful migraine for a lot of folks in the ice band. Thanks. I guess it will be on to the 0 and 12z to see if they drive a nail in our coffin or pry the lid off.

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