Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OMA: 0.47" MSP: 0.35" DSM: 1.06" JLN: 1.22" OKC: 1.38" STL: 1.36" PAH: 1.63" PIA: 1.79" DVN: 1.77" LSE: 0.47" MSN: 1.24" MKE: 1.70" FLD: 1.00" ORD: 1.89" LAF: 1.42" IND: 1.28" GRR: 1.34" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.18" CMH: 1.22" YYZ: 0.97" 4th run in a row with the heaviest...consistency is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Question for you Chicago posters - when everyone says "lakefront" and they are talking about the heavier snow totals what area do they mean? If I come all the way north is there an area that usually works out better for heavier snow? Gary? Dolton? Downtown Chicago lakefront area? I see Tom Skillings talking about "lake front" Thanks totally depends and gets real hairy in true LE setups, in this case where it's largely synoptic and lake enhanced, i think he generically means the lakefront counties of Lake/Cook. MDW typically out does ORD because it's a little closer, but in this case i'm not seeing a clear favorite. Anywhere in Cook would probably be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OMA: 0.47" MSP: 0.35" DSM: 1.06" JLN: 1.22" OKC: 1.38" STL: 1.36" PAH: 1.63" PIA: 1.79" DVN: 1.77" LSE: 0.47" MSN: 1.24" MKE: 1.70" FLD: 1.00" ORD: 1.89" LAF: 1.42" IND: 1.28" GRR: 1.34" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.18" CMH: 1.22" YYZ: 0.97" Ugh, lost almost a full quarter inch. Oh well, still an excellent storm in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The euro 850 temp forecasts tend to be a little warm. I think around a degree and change at 48hrs if I remember the graph someone posted earlier this week. Great info i think a few missed. I assume it's primarily rain, especially with LAF flipping over now. It is not and in fact per 2m temps LAF never reaches 32 or even 30 all though it may briefly flirt with 30. See Wes post. The actuall 32 line makes it to IND and or north side of town and that is as close as it ever gets. Yep. Call me a weenie if you wish, but how in the world will we stay 32º or below with a track overhead? Euro and GGEM both have >32º and rain for us now, for a time...NAM/GFS be out to lunch IMO. But we'll see. Occlusion is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WWA and WSW totaling 9-16" have just been put up for Madison, and that's lowballing the current run, which is a good idea for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ugh, lost almost a full quarter inch. Oh well, still an excellent storm in the making. Still a nice 12-18" though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OMA: 0.47" MSP: 0.35" DSM: 1.06" JLN: 1.22" OKC: 1.38" STL: 1.36" PAH: 1.63" PIA: 1.79" DVN: 1.77" LSE: 0.47" MSN: 1.24" MKE: 1.70" FLD: 1.00" ORD: 1.89" LAF: 1.42" IND: 1.28" GRR: 1.34" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.18" CMH: 1.22" YYZ: 0.97" Please add TUL to your lists from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still a nice 12-18" though right? I'd go 8-14" as a prelim call for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MKE going with a WWA for 4-6 inches here, then 6-12 for 2nd storm. 12-18 combined. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks. Yeah tremendous change in the past few runs. Warmth is winning out, and it may not be done yet. Needless to say, the threat for any significant icing/mix is going by the wayside for LAF. DUDE, STL TO LAF will get nailed with ice, sleet, and snow. the temps from 1500ft to the surface wont go above freezing. Trust me. in 2006 the models 2m temps busted hardcore below 2K feet, by HUNDREDS of miles. I am not saying it is the same thing but you are going to get the ice storm of a lifetime, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks. Yeah tremendous change in the past few runs. Warmth is winning out, and it may not be done yet. Needless to say, the threat for any significant icing/mix is going by the wayside for LAF. DUDE, STL TO LAF will get nailed with ice, sleet, and snow. the temps from 1500ft to the surface wont go above freezing. Trust me. in 2006 the models 2m temps busted hardcore below 2K feet, by HUNDREDS of miles. I am not saying it is the same thing but you are going to get the ice storm of a lifetime, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DUDE, STL TO LAF will get nailed with ice, sleet, and snow. the temps from 1500ft to the surface wont go above freezing. Trust me. in 2006 the models 2m temps busted hardcore below 2K feet, by HUNDREDS of miles. I am not saying it is the same thing but you are going to get the ice storm of a lifetime, easily. I don't think that's what he wants to hear right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DUDE, STL TO LAF will get nailed with ice, sleet, and snow. the temps from 1500ft to the surface wont go above freezing. Trust me. in 2006 the models 2m temps busted hardcore below 2K feet, by HUNDREDS of miles. I am not saying it is the same thing but you are going to get the ice storm of a lifetime, easily. What is your prognostication for Indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The question concerning the euro. It's 48 hour forecast of QPF verify better in the midwest than any of the other models except at the highest threshold the gfs wins. The nam overforecasts the really heavy amounts. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_48h_mdw.gif But for the highest thresholds, the gfs wins at 72 hours. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_72h_mdw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 No need to be sorry, everyone is entitled to their own opinions on here. Regardless, I've seen it happen here (and back home) many times. This is a pretty strong storm that is now trending to a track that is close to, if not right over LAF. Very very rare to stay 32 or below in those scenarios...outside Jan '99. And this is no Jan '99, as the cold will get scoured out unlike that storm. But hey I might be wrong, I'm just an amateur weather lover, but we'll find out soon enough. I'm gonna try to not get married to any particular model since the gradient is so tight, but if there's one I'd follow, it would be the NAM as it should pick up on the low level cold better than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've pretty much kept mum on this storm, but I think I'm going to break that now. What we're seeing, to me, is almost unfathomable. Pretty solid agreement on an extreme blizzard for northern IL and IN and surrounding areas. If you want to look statistically, to make calls like those that must be made now seems rather absurd at this range. However, the precip signals cannot be ignored when the synoptic setup favors allowing it to happen. There is no reason I can see that this region will not see 2"+ of liquid equiv. from this storm. In fact, for the areas near the lake, that's likely a bit low. Of course, lake enhancement won't have as much liquid equivalent, but its effects on the total snow accumulation could be profound. To see signals of an LES band that reaches to I-74 on the GFS is very intimidating. Overall, I think somewhere between 22-28" of snow is likely a decent bet from the synoptic precip across the heaviest band, with I think will likely focus along I-80 in this area. Adding lake effect, I would not be surprised (but would still be thoroughly shocked) if somewhere in Lake and/or Porter Counties in IN saw a total of 36-40". I can't believe I just typed that, but the strength of the LES signal behind the synoptic precip cannot be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the Euro looks more like the NAM, yet HPC/NCEP earlier today said the NAM had initialization errors that might have caused it to come in too strong/amplified this AM. Who to believe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MKE going with a WWA for 4-6 inches here, then 6-12 for 2nd storm. 12-18 combined. Not bad. They still have some bullets left if their snowfall grids are anything like what I saw yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The question concerning the euro. It's 48 hour forecast of QPF verify better in the midwest than any of the other models except at the highest threshold the gfs wins. The nam overforecasts the really heavy amounts. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_48h_mdw.gif But for the highest thresholds, the gfs wins at 72 hours. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_72h_mdw.gif Thanks Wes! It is great to see you sharing your thoughts with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the Euro looks more like the NAM, yet HPC/NCEP earlier today said the NAM had initialization errors that might have caused it to come in too strong/amplified this AM. Who to believe.... They did say that they would wait to toss the NAM until they reviewed all 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've pretty much kept mum on this storm, but I think I'm going to break that now. What we're seeing, to me, is almost unfathomable. Pretty solid agreement on an extreme blizzard for northern IL and IN and surrounding areas. If you want to look statistically, to make calls like those that must be made now seems rather absurd at this range. However, the precip signals cannot be ignored when the synoptic setup favors allowing it to happen. There is no reason I can see that this region will not see 2"+ of liquid equiv. from this storm. In fact, for the areas near the lake, that's likely a bit low. Of course, lake enhancement won't have as much liquid equivalent, but its effects on the total snow accumulation could be profound. To see signals of an LES band that reaches to I-74 on the GFS is very intimidating. Overall, I think somewhere between 22-28" of snow is likely a decent bet from the synoptic precip across the heaviest band, with I think will likely focus along I-80 in this area. Adding lake effect, I would not be surprised (but would still be thoroughly shocked) if somewhere in Lake and/or Porter Counties in IN saw a total of 36-40". I can't believe I just typed that, but the strength of the LES signal behind the synoptic precip cannot be ignored. hands shaking when you typed that? lol this is going to be insane man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've pretty much kept mum on this storm, but I think I'm going to break that now. What we're seeing, to me, is almost unfathomable. Pretty solid agreement on an extreme blizzard for northern IL and IN and surrounding areas. If you want to look statistically, to make calls like those that must be made now seems rather absurd at this range. However, the precip signals cannot be ignored when the synoptic setup favors allowing it to happen. There is no reason I can see that this region will not see 2"+ of liquid equiv. from this storm. In fact, for the areas near the lake, that's likely a bit low. Of course, lake enhancement won't have as much liquid equivalent, but its effects on the total snow accumulation could be profound. To see signals of an LES band that reaches to I-74 on the GFS is very intimidating. Overall, I think somewhere between 22-28" of snow is likely a decent bet from the synoptic precip across the heaviest band, with I think will likely focus along I-80 in this area. Adding lake effect, I would not be surprised (but would still be thoroughly shocked) if somewhere in Lake and/or Porter Counties in IN saw a total of 36-40". I can't believe I just typed that, but the strength of the LES signal behind the synoptic precip cannot be ignored. Tony just came out hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The question concerning the euro. It's 48 hour forecast of QPF verify better in the midwest than any of the other models except at the highest threshold the gfs wins. The nam overforecasts the really heavy amounts. http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_48h_mdw.gif But for the highest thresholds, the gfs wins at 72 hours. http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_72h_mdw.gif Great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Please add TUL to your lists from now on. Will do. TUL: 1.11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd go 8-14" as a prelim call for us. a met from nws buf thinks that models often perform poorly in terms of precip amounts with this type of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 They did say that they would wait to toss the NAM until they reviewed all 12z data. Gotcha. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 From Jude Redfield: Good news for much of Central & Southern Indiana...for now at least. The storm that is going to slam the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is now finally being fully sampled by computer models since the energy has now made it into the US from the Pacific ocean(Accuracy output is much higher). Models are agreeing on a track ...that would take the low over or to the west of Indy. Not only do models agree with this but I do as well. Typically storms that show this intensification along with a climatological favorable tracks in La Nina patterns tend to shift storms farther north and west. At this point I feel the storm will move over Indy or even farther to the west and north of Indy. This is VERY GOOD because it will push the worst of the ice line farther NW from Lafayette to Ft. Wayne. This storm has the makings of producing a snow swath with amounts over 16" along with freezing rain that could end up nearing 1.5" AS OF NOW, THESE KIND OF NUMBERS COULD BE SEEN FROM LAFAYETTE TO RENSSELAER TO CHICAGO. The heaviest snow looks to be in Illinois and Missouri. Here in Indiana we will see it all, including a warm push in our southern counties that could bring t-storms and temps to around 50. Reference: http://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=498552541143&set=a.124861411143.103109.54444461143 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hi-res NMM has a slightly convective look to some of the early WAA precip over northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've pretty much kept mum on this storm, but I think I'm going to break that now. What we're seeing, to me, is almost unfathomable. Pretty solid agreement on an extreme blizzard for northern IL and IN and surrounding areas. If you want to look statistically, to make calls like those that must be made now seems rather absurd at this range. However, the precip signals cannot be ignored when the synoptic setup favors allowing it to happen. There is no reason I can see that this region will not see 2"+ of liquid equiv. from this storm. In fact, for the areas near the lake, that's likely a bit low. Of course, lake enhancement won't have as much liquid equivalent, but its effects on the total snow accumulation could be profound. To see signals of an LES band that reaches to I-74 on the GFS is very intimidating. Overall, I think somewhere between 22-28" of snow is likely a decent bet from the synoptic precip across the heaviest band, with I think will likely focus along I-80 in this area. Adding lake effect, I would not be surprised (but would still be thoroughly shocked) if somewhere in Lake and/or Porter Counties in IN saw a total of 36-40". I can't believe I just typed that, but the strength of the LES signal behind the synoptic precip cannot be ignored. Haven't really looked at the lake effect potential in a lot of detail, but yeah, the totals will get completely out of hand if it delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The question concerning the euro. It's 48 hour forecast of QPF verify better in the midwest than any of the other models except at the highest threshold the gfs wins. The nam overforecasts the really heavy amounts. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_48h_mdw.gif But for the highest thresholds, the gfs wins at 72 hours. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_72h_mdw.gif Awesome, thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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