ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Skilling: Wouldn't be surprising, given prospects for lake enhancement of snowfall for as many as 18 hours of the storm's snow, to see local 20"+ tallies lakeside counties if current trends continue--and all models are solidifying behind this line of reasoning--a development which lends confidence to any snow forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 how much is the euro showing for kbuf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks. Yeah tremendous change in the past few runs. Warmth is winning out, and it may not be done yet. Needless to say, the threat for any significant icing/mix is going by the wayside for LAF. You think we're going to get above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wetter at ORD than the 0z run 1.84" through 18z weds. run after run, i keep saying this QPF is going to come down to earth and it just keeps getting crazier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The heavy precip signals are growing quite strong as we converge on this event. This thread is moving awfully quickly, but the reasoning is in the last post of page 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is there still any WAA freezing rain for Indy or is it all rain now? I assume it's primarily rain, especially with LAF flipping over now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 how much is the euro showing for kbuf? .97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry Chicago Wx but I completely disagree with you and I still think the heaviest icing occurs between a Lafayette to Fort Wayne line and down to I 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The heavy precip signals are growing quite strong as we converge on this event. This thread is moving awfully quickly, but the reasoning is in the last post of page 42. switch to 40 posts per page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 I assume it's primarily rain, especially with LAF flipping over now. I wouldn't take the Euro temps verbatim, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You think we're going to get above freezing? Oh come'on now Hoosier.. Every model is showing this area getting above freezing. Not just one or the other.. Plus the trends have been warmer with each run as it moves NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You think we're going to get above freezing? Yep. Call me a weenie if you wish, but how in the world will we stay 32º or below with a track overhead? Euro and GGEM both have >32º and rain for us now, for a time...NAM/GFS be out to lunch IMO. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New snow map from LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh come'on now Hoosier.. Every model is showing this area getting above freezing. Not just one or the other.. Plus the trends have been warmer with each run as it moves NW.. Unless the surface low is still deepening as it tracks over LAF, I highly doubt we crack freezing. There's going to be a large gradient though so areas to the south might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yep. Call me a weenie if you wish, but how in the world will we stay 32º or below with a track overhead? Euro and GGEM both have >32º and rain for us now, for a time...NAM/GFS be out to lunch IMO. But we'll see. I should've known this was coming...like you said, pessimistic mode in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We know the Euro verifies well with forecasted upper-air patterns. Anyone know how well it performs with QPF? Any biases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 run after run, i keep saying this QPF is going to come down to earth and it just keeps getting crazier. ORD finishes with 1.89" just talked with Sirvatka on the phone for 10 mins lol both of us are beyond giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Unless the surface low is still deepening as it tracks over LAF, I highly doubt we crack freezing. There's going to be a large gradient though so areas to the south might. Agree, based on the tendenacy towards early occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That WGN snow total map seems unbelievable....but possible...South Bend got 36-38 inches of total LES earlier this month in a localized area from one storm. But the massive geographical extent of this system wide significant precip is absolutely astonishing...even if you go with the lower NWS expected totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 .97 thanks,seems a bit weaker with the qpf compared to nam/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We know the Euro verifies well with forecasted upper-air patterns. Anyone know how well it performs with QPF? Any biases? not high that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 switch to 40 posts per page. Well that would certainly change things. This might work better for folks. Post 840 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good luck to you guys out there. I wish I was home in Waukesha for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry Chicago Wx but I completely disagree with you and I still think the heaviest icing occurs between a Lafayette to Fort Wayne line and down to I 70 No need to be sorry, everyone is entitled to their own opinions on here. Regardless, I've seen it happen here (and back home) many times. This is a pretty strong storm that is now trending to a track that is close to, if not right over LAF. Very very rare to stay 32 or below in those scenarios...outside Jan '99. And this is no Jan '99, as the cold will get scoured out unlike that storm. But hey I might be wrong, I'm just an amateur weather lover, but we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thanks,seems a bit weaker with the qpf compared to nam/gfs Has me kind of worried that I've come down a lot. Unless it's so far north that BUF gets slotted and the heaviest QPF is north of you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z Euro 1.28" QPF in OKC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OMA: 0.47" MSP: 0.35" DSM: 1.06" JLN: 1.22" OKC: 1.38" STL: 1.36" PAH: 1.63" PIA: 1.79" DVN: 1.77" LSE: 0.47" MSN: 1.24" MKE: 1.70" FLD: 1.00" ORD: 1.89" LAF: 1.42" IND: 1.28" GRR: 1.34" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.18" CMH: 1.22" YYZ: 0.97" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I expect video from you. Man, I really hope this plays out like we all think it can right now. I'll try, the only bad thing is we're looking at a night event, which makes for worse vid/pics. On the plus side, if it all goes right, work won't even be an option wed so pulling an all nighter will be doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OMA: 0.47" MSP: 0.35" DSM: 1.06" JLN: 1.22" OKC: 1.38" STL: 1.36" PAH: 1.63" PIA: 1.79" DVN: 1.77" LSE: 0.47" MSN: 1.24" MKE: 1.70" FLD: 1.00" ORD: 1.89" LAF: 1.42" IND: 1.28" GRR: 1.34" DTW: 1.13" DAY: 1.18" CMH: 1.22" YYZ: 0.97" Big change in precip and temps for Indy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MKE to a Blizzard Watch: WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...BLOWING AND DRIFTING COULD BE EXTREME ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND IN OPEN RURAL AREAS WITHOUT MUCH TREES. THERE ARE SIMILARITIES TO THE BLIZZARD OF EARLY JANUARY 1999...WHICH PRODUCED 4 TO 8 FOOT DRIFTS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE JANESVILLE AND FOND DU LAC AREAS ON EAST. GIVEN THIS OCCURS DURING THE WORK WEEK...IMPACTS WILL BE TREMENDOUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PARALYZING BLIZZARD IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND DOWN INTO THE CHICAGO METRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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