January 31-February 2 Potentially Historic Winter Storm

[Hoar_Frost]

Is this going to happen?

This is absolutely INSANE! I'm sorry, but something has to give, one way or the other... Someone is getting thumped, that is for sure, but something has to give around here, I cannot comprehend a storm like this happening after being predicted for the last 4 days. I lived through '78 and '99, and I remember some other heavy storms, but, I remember, in a few of those cases, the storm was a surprise, it was something that was not forecast...

If this verifies with the amount of snow (Widespread 18"-24"????) it is going to shut down this area, at least for a day or so, unless, because of the long duration of the event, streets can be kept more or less passable, to some extent.

The other component is the icing potential for S and E of the low. That is positively frightening. I have lived through a couple 1/2" ice storms, and it's not fun by any means. That is when weather get scary.

I am going to be on pins and needles for the next 3 days, watching this unfold, and hoping it happens more or less as forecast. I just cannot wrap my head around this, I really can't.

The '99 blizzard was not a total surprise; in fact, it was predicted about as far in advance. I can't speak for the blizzards in the late '70's since I wasn't alive then, but meteorology has advanced very greatly since that time.

[snowstormcanuck]

The great thing about the CMC is you can typically tell when it is just junk. It won't be scoring a coup here with the odd way it develops this system. NOGAPS stinks--wouldn't bother with its resolution in both the horizontal and vertical--and the eta can really stink it up at times. The eta is ruining the SREF mean.

Looks like the setup is so favorable you're throwing your pessimism paradigm to the curb.

[JayPSU]

The great thing about the CMC is you can typically tell when it is just junk. It won't be scoring a coup here with the odd way it develops this system. NOGAPS stinks--wouldn't bother with its resolution in both the horizontal and vertical--and the eta can really stink it up at times. The eta is ruining the SREF mean.

So essentially all of the models that have a more south and east solution are crappy models that need to be tossed? Got it.

[wisconsinwx]

I am thinking, based on projected GEFS QPF totals of around 0.85 for the Milwaukee area for the duration of the storm and knowledge of WAA snows on Monday, does it seem accurate to think about 3-4 inches with the WAA snows and about 6-8 inches for the larger area of system snow on Tuesday night/Wednesday? Just estimates, but based on most of the models, that would be my guess.

[Chicago WX]

Thanks, unfortunately it was a lot more ice.

Yep. It's probably more sleet vs. snow here than the OP would offer. I think it's pretty clear IND is in the middle of a major ice storm right now unfortunately.

[baroclinic_instability]

Baro, what are your thoughts if any on the waa snows up here starting tomorrow evening?...most models spitting out .4 - .6 qpf over w/s mn through the event...wondering if thats a little overdone, thanks.

The NAM is definitely overdone--but the GFS is pretty realistic with about .4-.5" of liquid precip. Ratios won't be extreme but it will be fluffy and dry snow so it will accumulate easily. For you a solid 6+ seems realistic--NWS may go WWA instead of WSW though since it is somewhat long duration.

[KokomoWX]

110201/0000Z  48  07013KT  19.0F  SNOW    14:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/0300Z  51  07013KT  17.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 0.5    0.035|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/0600Z  54  06011KT  17.2F  SNOW    13:1| 1.0|| 1.4    0.071|| 0.12     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/0900Z  57  06012KT  16.7F  SNOW    13:1| 0.3|| 1.8    0.028|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/1200Z  60  05013KT  15.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 2.1    0.035|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/1500Z  63  06015KT  16.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 2.1    0.000|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/1800Z  66  06013KT  19.0F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1|| 2.2    0.008|| 0.19     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/2100Z  69  06018KT  18.9F  SNOW    16:1| 0.5|| 2.7    0.031|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0000Z  72  04016KT  17.2F  SNOW    15:1| 4.8|| 7.5    0.323|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/0300Z  75  05019KT  16.0F  SNOW    15:1| 5.3||12.8    0.350|| 0.89     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0600Z  78  05021KT  14.2F  SNOW    16:1| 6.3||19.1    0.394|| 1.29     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0900Z  81  02021KT  12.9F  SNOW    14:1| 3.3||22.4    0.236|| 1.52     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1200Z  84  01021KT  13.6F  SNOW    16:1| 2.2||24.6    0.142|| 1.67     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/1500Z  87  35019KT  15.4F  SNOW    19:1| 1.7||26.3    0.087|| 1.75     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1800Z  90  35020KT  16.9F  SNOW    25:1| 0.6||26.9    0.024|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/2100Z  93  35011KT  16.2F           0:1| 0.0||26.9    0.000|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110203/0000Z  96  35007KT  11.3F           0:1| 0.0||26.9    0.000|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0

[Hoosier]

Good stuff man, we're obviously riding an unknown line right now. It's a tough call either way. I think I'll have my call ready by Tuesday morning.

I wish I had more but I'd rather wait. The ice potential south of here looks serious as has been discussed. The best area in Indiana looks to be along and especially south of I-70. Gotta hope it somehow avoids Indy or else they will be brought to their knees.

[Chicago WX]

The '99 blizzard was not a total surprise; in fact, it was predicted about as far in advance. I can't speak for the blizzards in the late '70's since I wasn't alive then, but meteorology has advanced very greatly since that time.

Correct. Probably one of the better big storms to be forecasted, 5 or so days out. Of course the snow totals were under-forecasted to a degree, but that is to be expected I suppose.

[baroclinic_instability]

So essentially all of the models that have a more south and east solution are crappy models that need to be tossed? Got it.

I am definitely not hoping for any solution--I know a NW track may be real bad for your area in terms of potential ice--but the models mentioned were tossed due to the setup. The CMC height field makes little to no sense here either.

[Madmaxweather]

0z Ukie...

Thats looks pretty darn good...

[snowlord81]

110201/0000Z  48  07013KT  19.0F  SNOW    14:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/0300Z  51  07013KT  17.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 0.5    0.035|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/0600Z  54  06011KT  17.2F  SNOW    13:1| 1.0|| 1.4    0.071|| 0.12     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/0900Z  57  06012KT  16.7F  SNOW    13:1| 0.3|| 1.8    0.028|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/1200Z  60  05013KT  15.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 2.1    0.035|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/1500Z  63  06015KT  16.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 2.1    0.000|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/1800Z  66  06013KT  19.0F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1|| 2.2    0.008|| 0.19     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/2100Z  69  06018KT  18.9F  SNOW    16:1| 0.5|| 2.7    0.031|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0000Z  72  04016KT  17.2F  SNOW    15:1| 4.8|| 7.5    0.323|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/0300Z  75  05019KT  16.0F  SNOW    15:1| 5.3||12.8    0.350|| 0.89     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0600Z  78  05021KT  14.2F  SNOW    16:1| 6.3||19.1    0.394|| 1.29     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0900Z  81  02021KT  12.9F  SNOW    14:1| 3.3||22.4    0.236|| 1.52     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1200Z  84  01021KT  13.6F  SNOW    16:1| 2.2||24.6    0.142|| 1.67     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/1500Z  87  35019KT  15.4F  SNOW    19:1| 1.7||26.3    0.087|| 1.75     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1800Z  90  35020KT  16.9F  SNOW    25:1| 0.6||26.9    0.024|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/2100Z  93  35011KT  16.2F           0:1| 0.0||26.9    0.000|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110203/0000Z  96  35007KT  11.3F           0:1| 0.0||26.9    0.000|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0

Which model is this? If thats the case for Kokomo, Im only 30 miles south and I'd gladly take half of that! lol

[snowstormcanuck]

GFS BUFKIT produces 10-15" of snow at YYZ on 0.81" of QPF. Believe me, if ORD-DTW gets 18-24" I won't be envious. 10-15" is plenty.

[cmichweather]

The NAM is definitely overdone--but the GFS is pretty realistic with about .4-.5" of liquid precip. Ratios won't be extreme but it will be fluffy and dry snow so it will accumulate easily. For you a solid 6+ seems realistic--NWS may go WWA instead of WSW though since it is somewhat long duration.

I'm concerned with the High pressure there's going to be a fair amount of dry air to overcome that's only going to be reinforced by the dry NNE flow.

[Chicago WX]

I wish I had more but I'd rather wait. The ice potential south of here looks serious as has been discussed. The best area in Indiana looks to be along and especially south of I-70. Gotta hope it somehow avoids Indy or else they will be brought to their knees.

Waiting is best. Specifics are still TBD, and quite frankly it could be just shy of game time before we truly know.

As for Indy and that general area, yikes. Let's hope for the best down there.

[Steve]

Thats looks pretty darn good...

Ice looks like it could be a devastating problem here..just going by thse maps!!

[KokomoWX]

Which model is this? If thats the case for Kokomo, Im only 30 miles south and I'd gladly take half of that! lol

00z GFS and you won't like this for IND

110131/2100Z  45  08010KT  27.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/0000Z  48  07014KT  24.6F  SNPL     3:1| 0.4|| 0.4    0.110|| 0.11     0.10|| 0.10    0.00|| 0.00    56| 44|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/0300Z  51  08012KT  24.3F  SNPL     2:1| 0.3|| 0.7    0.146|| 0.26     0.22|| 0.32    0.00|| 0.00    23| 77|  0
110201/0600Z  54  06011KT  25.5F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.126|| 0.38     0.00|| 0.32    0.13|| 0.13     0|  9| 91
110201/0900Z  57  05010KT  23.2F  ZRPL     0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.016|| 0.40     0.00|| 0.32    0.01|| 0.15     0| 15| 85
110201/1200Z  60  04012KT  20.8F  ZRPL     0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.016|| 0.41     0.03|| 0.35    0.00|| 0.15     0| 86| 14
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/1500Z  63  05015KT  20.7F  PL       0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.012|| 0.43     0.02|| 0.38    0.00|| 0.15     0|100|  0
110201/1800Z  66  05015KT  23.9F  ZRPL     0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.047|| 0.47     0.06|| 0.44    0.02|| 0.17     0| 63| 37
110201/2100Z  69  06018KT  26.8F  ZRPL     0:1| 0.0|| 0.7    0.252|| 0.72     0.14|| 0.57    0.19|| 0.36     0| 27| 73
110202/0000Z  72  04017KT  25.0F  SNOW    10:1| 4.4|| 5.1    0.453|| 1.18     0.00|| 0.57    0.00|| 0.36   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/0300Z  75  06023KT  26.1F  ZRPL     0:1| 0.0|| 5.1    0.311|| 1.49     0.11|| 0.68    0.27|| 0.63     0| 18| 82
110202/0600Z  78  05019KT  27.3F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 5.1    0.291|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.68    0.31|| 0.93     0|  0|100
110202/0900Z  81  01024KT  18.1F  SNOW     6:1| 1.0|| 6.1    0.181|| 1.96     0.00|| 0.68    0.00|| 0.93   100|  0|  0
110202/1200Z  84  36019KT  13.6F  SNOW     8:1| 0.6|| 6.7    0.075|| 2.04     0.00|| 0.68    0.00|| 0.93   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/1500Z  87  34017KT  16.3F  SNOW    22:1| 1.5|| 8.2    0.067|| 2.10     0.00|| 0.68    0.00|| 0.93   100|  0|  0
110202/1800Z  90  35021KT  18.5F  SNOW     0:1| 0.0|| 8.2    0.012|| 2.11     0.00|| 0.68    0.00|| 0.93   100|  0|  0
110202/2100Z  93  34011KT  18.1F           0:1| 0.0|| 8.2    0.000|| 2.11     0.00|| 0.68    0.00|| 0.93     0|  0|  0
110203/0000Z  96  34007KT  12.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 8.2    0.000|| 2.11     0.00|| 0.68    0.00|| 0.93     0|  0|  0

[Thundersnow12]

have never seen these numbers, although small, around here.

[Moneyman]

Koko, do you have one for Fond du Lac (kfld) by any chance? Thanks in advanced.

[Chicago WX]

110201/0000Z  48  07013KT  19.0F  SNOW    14:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.012|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/0300Z  51  07013KT  17.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 0.5    0.035|| 0.05     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/0600Z  54  06011KT  17.2F  SNOW    13:1| 1.0|| 1.4    0.071|| 0.12     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/0900Z  57  06012KT  16.7F  SNOW    13:1| 0.3|| 1.8    0.028|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/1200Z  60  05013KT  15.6F  SNOW     9:1| 0.3|| 2.1    0.035|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110201/1500Z  63  06015KT  16.2F           0:1| 0.0|| 2.1    0.000|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110201/1800Z  66  06013KT  19.0F  SNOW     9:1| 0.1|| 2.2    0.008|| 0.19     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110201/2100Z  69  06018KT  18.9F  SNOW    16:1| 0.5|| 2.7    0.031|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0000Z  72  04016KT  17.2F  SNOW    15:1| 4.8|| 7.5    0.323|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/0300Z  75  05019KT  16.0F  SNOW    15:1| 5.3||12.8    0.350|| 0.89     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0600Z  78  05021KT  14.2F  SNOW    16:1| 6.3||19.1    0.394|| 1.29     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/0900Z  81  02021KT  12.9F  SNOW    14:1| 3.3||22.4    0.236|| 1.52     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1200Z  84  01021KT  13.6F  SNOW    16:1| 2.2||24.6    0.142|| 1.67     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110202/1500Z  87  35019KT  15.4F  SNOW    19:1| 1.7||26.3    0.087|| 1.75     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/1800Z  90  35020KT  16.9F  SNOW    25:1| 0.6||26.9    0.024|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110202/2100Z  93  35011KT  16.2F           0:1| 0.0||26.9    0.000|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110203/0000Z  96  35007KT  11.3F           0:1| 0.0||26.9    0.000|| 1.78     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0

Only 26.6" for LAF via that method. Congrats I guess.

[OceanStWx]

I'm concerned with the High pressure there's going to be a fair amount of dry air to overcome that's only going to be reinforced by the dry NNE flow.

There will definitely be some initial mid level dry air to overcome, but while it is a cold air mass it is not very dry at the surface. Dewpoint depressions are pretty small considering the magnitude of Arctic air.

[cyclone77]

Waiting is best. Specifics are still TBD, and quite frankly it could be just shy of game time before we truly know.

As for Indy and that general area, yikes. Let's hope for the best down there.

Yeah it's going to be a very tricky forecast for LAF. As long as the layer of warm air isn't too stubborn you guys should pick up a lot of snow. Probably on the order of 10" or more. Possibly way more if the mixing is brief. Sometimes though the warm layer can be very stubborn to leave, especially when the storm is still intensifying. The very intense UVVs may help to offset the intense WAA some.

[snowstormcanuck]

Didn't see the eye candy maps posted

NAM

GFS

[Thundersnow12]

0z GFS....can't wait to see what kind of ratios we get out of this as well if we get some TSSN.

[kerbs]

Didn't see the eye candy maps posted

NAM

GFS

The GFS shows about a foot of snow on the north side of my house, and an inch or so to the south. LOL

[snowstormcanuck]

SREF Snowfall amount probabilities (Mean is dragged SE due to the ETA model)

[KokomoWX]

Koko, do you have one for Fond du Lac (kfld) by any chance? Thanks in advanced.

Green Bay seemed closest. Just 2.3"

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kgrb

[Chicago WX]

Yeah it's going to be a very tricky forecast for LAF. As long as the layer of warm air isn't too stubborn you guys should pick up a lot of snow. Probably on the order of 10" or more. Possibly way more if the mixing is brief. Sometimes though the warm layer can be very stubborn to leave, especially when the storm is still intensifying. The very intense UVVs may help to offset the intense WAA some.

It'd be nice to get a little consensus beforehand, but at this point I think we know our destiny is primarily snow or snow/sleet mix. To what degree is the question. One part of me agrees with you with the WAA usually being under-forecasted and holding on longer...while the other part thinks the dynamics can offset a somewhat marginal warm layer. Tough call at this point, but one has to assume it gets clearer the closer we get.

[cmichweather]

There will definitely be some initial mid level dry air to overcome, but while it is a cold air mass it is not very dry at the surface. Dewpoint depressions are pretty small considering the magnitude of Arctic air.

oh ya sorry i wasn't really meaning the southerly areas i was referencing the northern regions like fargo/gfk into msp. Its seems that even drier air is coming south and that it'll only be reinforced with the position of the high, and precip will not be as much on the periphery of the precip shield. Down south in the iowa/mnn border you guys will be fine probably just a bit overdone like the nam does every time with WAA snows in these type of events.

[Thundersnow12]

forecast soundings off the GFS for here showing the nice DGZ, mid level temps crash pretty fast from 6z to 12z weds. temps from about 850mb to 700mb aren't as fast and hang around in the DGZ a bit longer which is good.