Macintosh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow - just amazes me how far north and west this thing is going. I noticed the second system in the Gulf of Mexico later next week is trending north on some data - already. lol Sorry, couldn't resist. I learned in the 2009 ice storm that one county usually makes all the difference in these events. Graves County, KY had a catastrophic ice storm - one county south said "what ice storm" It will be extremely difficult to pinpoint the areas of highest ice accumulation. Most of our ice accumulated with temperatures from 30-32 degrees. We ended up with 1 1/2-2" of ice. Pure ice. I am seriously considering a storm chase - just not sure where to go. Beau, I'm seeing this NW trend. If the low center passes directly overhead, what kind of weather would you expect to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 78hrs: 1000mb SLP along the PA/NY border. Decent hit from ORD to DTW and a nice hit for YYZ. lol, I wonder if there's a quantitative difference between "decent" and "nice". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea, a bit NW/N. Storm, precip amounts similar to the 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I assume with that track the 12z Euro will give me mixing and/or dry slot issues? amyone got the data on that? It occludes pretty rapidly by the time it gets up here, if you do, it's not a ton. Chistorm will have details i'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago storm please give QPF totals again for Omaha and the other cities like you did last night for the euro, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Funny to see the Blizz Watch just a county to your NW.. Might want to replace the WSW here with a Flood Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 even with the NW shift models have trended colder at the surface.. so now we are looking at upper 20s and 2 inches of rain. I hope it's sleet. I hope for your sake it is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just happy to be avoiding all ice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I assume with that track the 12z Euro will give me mixing and/or dry slot issues? amyone got the data on that? PIA is still pretty safe...all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Might want to replace the WSW here with a Flood Watch. Yeah, the one thing that has been steady is the QPF.. 2.25 to 2.5" Looking forward to what IND has to say this afternoon. Because, all models are going well NW with this thing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 QPF shield shifted about 30 miles NW from 0z. I went from .69 to 1.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro putting out .85" liquid between 0z and 6z weds at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 even with the NW shift models have trended colder at the surface.. so now we are looking at upper 20s and 2 inches of rain. I hope it's sleet. Euro 2m temps are warmer, for both of us. Freezing line knocking on both of our doors compared to the 0z run. Something to consider Friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 oax= .42 oma=.47 lnk .40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's kind of funny reading about people worrying about ice and mixing when the temps here are gonna be below 20 °F the entire storm, throughout the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol, I wonder if there's a quantitative difference between "decent" and "nice". Decent is like .1-.25" and nice would be .25"+ per 6hr period. Storm, precip amounts similar to the 0z run? Wetter from ORD back to KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 skilling must be freaking A lot of chatter on his wall, but Tom is all over it. In addition to his own posts on there, I love how he is engaged in some of the feedback commentary. This afternoon provides some time to tie up any loose ends. Snowmobiling in the '99 blizzard was unreal, in terms of the accessibility to built and developed/ otherwise inaccessible areas. Definitely older and wiser now but still. It's hard to imagine what things would be like if anything remotely closer to the higher end verifies. I have to finish a little work on one sled today, but other than that the fleet is ready. I do recall them using the help of snowmobilers on I-90 south of Madison a few years ago, at least shuttling items to stranded motorists. Never thought that would happen in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro putting out .85" liquid between 0z and 6z weds at ORD. insane rates on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Call me leary but I wouldn't let down your guard if you are North of I 70 as far as the threat of freezing rain goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Moneyman what does the euro show for la crosse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wetter at ORD than the 0z run 1.84" through 18z weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro 2m temps are warmer, for both of us. Freezing line knocking on both of our doors compared to the 0z run. Something to consider Friv. According to your MOS data you do get +1.1 C WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 0.9 1010 90 95 0.45 551 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.1 3.2 997 94 60 0.58 539 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow - just amazes me how far north and west this thing is going. I noticed the second system in the Gulf of Mexico later next week is trending north on some data - already. lol Sorry, couldn't resist. I learned in the 2009 ice storm that one county usually makes all the difference in these events. Graves County, KY had a catastrophic ice storm - one county south said "what ice storm" It will be extremely difficult to pinpoint the areas of highest ice accumulation. Most of our ice accumulated with temperatures from 30-32 degrees. We ended up with 1 1/2-2" of ice. Pure ice. I am seriously considering a storm chase - just not sure where to go. Beau, that's a great point about ice storms. They usually are quite narrow and for that reason years ago, we were discouraged ever putting it on a deterministic clouds and weather chart. It only takes a light shift in rack to throw the freezing rain storm out of whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LA Crosse is about .5 with WAA/2nd storm combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Might want to replace the WSW here with a Flood Watch. Seems like this is trending more toward a sleet/zr event locally. Tough call on what to do in these situations...have to at least entertain the idea of a paralyizing ice storm if the warming aloft is underdone. I generally think sleet is a waste but I haven't seen nearly as much as what some of the 12z runs are showing, so that would be a little exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A lot of chatter on his wall, but Tom is all over it. In addition to his own posts on there, I love how he is engaged in some of the feedback commentary. This afternoon provides some time to tie up any loose ends. Snowmobiling in the '99 blizzard was unreal, in terms of the accessibility to built and developed/ otherwise inaccessible areas. Definitely older and wiser now but still. It's hard to imagine what things would be like if anything remotely closer to the higher end verifies. I have to finish a little work on one sled today, but other than that the fleet is ready. I do recall them using the help of snowmobilers on I-90 south of Madison a few years ago, at least shuttling items to stranded motorists. Never thought that would happen in this region. lol, that place is a mad house, Total Oscar Meyer factory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro 2m temps are warmer, for both of us. Freezing line knocking on both of our doors compared to the 0z run. Something to consider Friv. Is there still any WAA freezing rain for Indy or is it all rain now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 List of cities/QPF totals coming soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 According to your MOS data you do get +1.1 C WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 0.9 1010 90 95 0.45 551 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.1 3.2 997 94 60 0.58 539 542 The euro 850 temp forecasts tend to be a little warm. I think around a degree and change at 48hrs if I remember the graph someone posted earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 According to your MOS data you do get +1.1 C WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 0.9 1010 90 95 0.45 551 543 WED 06Z 02-FEB 1.1 3.2 997 94 60 0.58 539 542 Thanks. Yeah tremendous change in the past few runs. Warmth is winning out, and it may not be done yet. Needless to say, the threat for any significant icing/mix is going by the wayside for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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