Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 strike my above post then. I expect video from you. Man, I really hope this plays out like we all think it can right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm all ears Friv, though right now it looks more sleety than icey for here and other places. But the first indicators of 33+ and rain are starting to show themselves for here. Lots to sort out... some output has 10 inches of sleet here from the nam and gfs from dynamics I guess. but the models keep the freeze line 75 miles so south of me and we are in the upper 20s to around 30 with 2 inches of qpf. basically 2006 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 EURO looks like it's heading north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can someone post any UKMET model link please, the americanwx model site isnt updating for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z ECMWF... 48hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. texas. Looks a bit stronger than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Finally catching up with this thread and the 12z data. Great trends for those I-80ers from eastern Iowa to Chicago. Have to love the upper levels, 500 low closing off overhead, 700 and 850 lows tracking along and just southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 some output has 10 inches of sleet here from the nam and gfs from dynamics I guess. but the models keep the freeze line 75 miles so south of me and we are in the upper 20s to around 30 with 2 inches of qpf. basically 2006 all over again. There is no doubt there are ominous signs for you and some others on here. We need to keep special attention on what the trends become in the next 24 hours. Nature of the beast, but the snow portion of the system will heavily trump the ice/mix part. But I'm interested, so don't hesitate to keep talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z ECMWF... 48hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. texas. Looks a bit stronger than the 0z. 54hrs: 1000mb SLP in C. Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 euro will have a earth ending ice storm here. game over. we are going to be out of power for weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 54hrs: 1000mb SLP in C. Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. 60hrs: 996mb SLP in SE. Missouri. Nice hit from E. Kansas to ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 EURO is a bit stronger, farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 euro will have a earth ending ice storm here. game over. we are going to be out of power for weeks are you in the city, aren't the lines underground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 are you in the city, aren't the lines underground? lol no. 996 SLP in SE MO at 60..wow....epic ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 EURO is a bit stronger, farther west. Friv, what is the talk of the STL media on this storm? People flipping out yet or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 60hrs: 996mb SLP in SE. Missouri. Nice hit from E. Kansas to ORD. 66hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from IA/MO to DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol no. 996 SLP in SE MO at 60..wow....epic ice. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z Euro for central Indiana purposes, definitely warmer and farther north. 32º line making inroads to LAF at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Friv, what is the talk of the STL media on this storm? People flipping out yet or no? the ominous ice warnings are coming out now..saying it will be huge and get supplies. 2 inches of ice isn't fathomable. we had 1inch in 2006 it crippled us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro sounds hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Also, look at the standardized anomalies from the 12z runs of the NAM and GFS (op runs not ensembles). Both models are showing greater than 5 sigma anomalies with the 850 winds. Strong moisture transport northward from the Gulf, coupled with the ridiculous cold conveyor are going to make for efficient precipitation production. Not only that but PWATs are starting to show 2 to 3 sigma anomalies in Kentucky, hinting at the high amount of moisture available to this system. Seeing these kind of signals should be a red flag that at least near record snowfall will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 66hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from IA/MO to DTW. Seems to be spot on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 66hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from IA/MO to DTW. 72hrs: 1000mb SLP occluding SLP near LAF and another in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 euro will have a earth ending ice storm here. game over. we are going to be out of power for weeks We have had our fair share of crippling ice storms in the Southern Plains, and a good rule of thumb to follow is to be prepared for an ice storm, but nothing from here until the storm starts will be "game over." A difference in depth of the cold air by only a few hundred feet can make all the difference between a sleet and freezing rain event. This storm is going to be so dynamic that it will be hard to pinpoint the exact areas of crippling ice until the event gets underway. Meant to add, not trying to downplay the event at all. It does look ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 72hrs: 1000mb SLP occluding SLP near LAF and another in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. All the way to LAF huh? Sounds further north then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 72hrs: 1000mb SLP occluding SLP near LAF and another in NE. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. 78hrs: 1000mb SLP along the PA/NY border. Decent hit from ORD to DTW and a nice hit for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For those in central IN, 12z GFS soundings look like a relatively short amount of mix to a well above freezing all rain event south of a LAF to MIE line. IND gets to 36º...meanwhile LAF only gets to 26º, MIE 30º. Alas, the warmth is creeping north... Funny to see the Blizz Watch just a county to your NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We have had our fair share of crippling ice storms in the Southern Plains, and a good rule of thumb to follow is to be prepared for an ice storm, but nothing from here until the storm starts will be "game over." A difference in depth of the cold air by only a few hundred feet can make all the difference between a sleet and freezing rain event. This storm is going to be so dynamic that it will be hard to pinpoint the exact areas of crippling ice until the event gets underway. One of the reasons we don't see 2 inches of nice is because the models say ice and sleet ends up falling right next to the SLP track. so most are spared from horrible ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I assume with that track the 12z Euro will give me mixing and/or dry slot issues? amyone got the data on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the way to LAF huh? Sounds further north then. Yea, a bit NW/N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow - just amazes me how far north and west this thing is going. I noticed the second system in the Gulf of Mexico later next week is trending north on some data - already. lol Sorry, couldn't resist. I learned in the 2009 ice storm that one county usually makes all the difference in these events. Graves County, KY had a catastrophic ice storm - one county south said "what ice storm" It will be extremely difficult to pinpoint the areas of highest ice accumulation. Most of our ice accumulated with temperatures from 30-32 degrees. We ended up with 1 1/2-2" of ice. Pure ice. even with the NW shift models have trended colder at the surface.. so now we are looking at upper 20s and 2 inches of rain. I hope it's sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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