A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey all. Over from the PHL/NYC forum. I am flying out of Allentown Tues at 6AM and heading to Chicago for meeting downtown. My flight leaves ORD at 7:08 Tues night. Couple questions: 1. Am I going to be delayed on Tues night heading out of ORD? Seems like the heavy stuff does not start till later. 2. Guess my best bet is to take the Metra? Get a hotel downtown and enjoy. Meet me for a beer Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the GGEM is basically in line with the NAM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What does the 12 gfs bufkit show for YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the euro is consistent and holds a solution inside 96... LOCK IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Have to admit Im getting very worried about mixing and stuff. I mean, I could live with a brief period of sleet or whatever. (This is one of those scenarios where I could get 12"-14" of snow and sleet which under any other circumstances would be orgasmic, but this time would be disappointing knowing whats so close). But omg PLEASE not a Jan 26, 1967 type of deal. 4" of sleet/snow and ice while Ann Arbor area gets like 18+ inches of snow. (verbatum temps are much colder with this one than in 1967, but just using the cutoff as reference). Im really worried about any more NW trending. As stebo said, there is no worry at all about this turning into a mild rainstorm. None. Its going to be a crippling winter storm. But i really want ALL snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The EURO did well, but the GFS caught on to the trend of a stronger and far North solution early, while the EURO was still suppressed along the Gulf Coast. Errrr... not really: From 00Z/26 Jan runs: GFS, same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Errrr... not really: From 00Z/26 Jan runs: GFS, same time: Sorry, talking the early stages like past 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Strange I saw this http://coolwx.com/cg...3012&field=prec That includes some after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry, talking the early stages like past 200 hours. Oh.. well, I never really pay attention to it after truncation anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We BARELY stay all snow on the GEGM. The mixing line literally stretches from Windsor to Metro Airport. I suspect DTX will add sleet to their forecast for Wayne/Washtenaw/Monroe/Lenawee counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We BARELY stsay all snow o neh GEGM. The mixing line literally stretches from Windsor to Metro Airport. I suspect DTX will add sleet to their forecast for Wayne/Washtenaw/Monroe/Lenawee counties. A brief mix with sleet wont be too bad....a lot of sleet will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry, talking the early stages like past 200 hours. Do you really expect a model to nail a storm 200+ hours out? EURO had 2 bad runs within hr 160 I would say. Outside of that, it's been the most consistent model, and every model has been trending slowly toward it. It's done a GREAT job this winter in the central region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We BARELY stay all snow on the GEGM. The mixing line literally stretches from Windsor to Metro Airport. I suspect DTX will add sleet to their forecast for Wayne/Washtenaw/Monroe/Lenawee counties. I doubt they will change it because one model (which has been inconsistent with this storm) says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A brief mix with sleet wont be too bad....a lot of sleet will Sicne we're still outside the 48 hour window, I'm sitll worried things may go astray here to some extent. I hope not, bu the latest trends simply aren't good. As I'd said before, I'd pass on significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A brief mix with sleet wont be too bad....a lot of sleet will I think it should be mostly snow or a mix of snow and sleet -- this will be heavy precipitation, possibly accompanied by thunder and lightning, so there should be enough dynamic cooling to overcome a small warm layer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I doubt they will change it because one model (which has been inconsistent with this storm) says so. 2 models do (maybe 3 with the UKMET). I can guarantee they'll add it for Monroe and parts of Wayne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah and the NAM did well there too once into range. NAM and another model did have a couple of hiccup runs too with trying to take that surface low across central MI which instead ended up about 75 miles or so to the south along the state line. Once they sniffed out the occlusion/closed off stuff closer to i70 they then made the last minute adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ensemble mean much wetter here than the op....which would you guys put more faith in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 for comparison with other models...72hr total qpf from the 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So is the 0C line a good indicator of the snow/mix line in this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So is the 0C line a good indicator of the snow/mix line in this storm? Yes. 850mb 0*C line that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ensemble mean much wetter here than the op....which would you guys put more faith in? Everything is wetter than the GFS for us, by far... GGEM, RGEM, UKMET, SREF... I'd throw out the GFS until we have a damn good reason to do otherwise. The trend toward a more northward-cutting SLP track over AR/MO/IL certainly argues in favor of more QPF here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BZW out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GGEM mix to plain rain here. Track via the p-type plots goes right over LAF. Starting to think we dodge any significant ice storm and may be predominantly "warm" liquid. And FWIW, the mix line peaks into the southern parts of LOT's CWA (IKK, PNT, etc) for a time before flipping back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is that from this morning? Where did that come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HOLY **** Also I just saw on the weather channel that there is a BLIZZARD watch now for CHICAGO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kind of looks like it will change to just rain here which i would gladly take over ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Biblical. Grossly overdone, but biblical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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