turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 stock up on 4loko while you can. The store right next to my frat sells it, so that's covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS Ens Mean: continues to get wetter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Any chance it might get shifted a tad east later on? The nw trend went into hibernation for the last 3 years starting with March '08 in our favor...including and up to the storm last week where we could have used it. Now it's in full force again. This is reminiscent of storm tracking 4 or 5 years ago where I would have had no doubt it was over for us 3 days ago. no...this isn't coming east or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Could you post the link to where you got this 72 hours UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The models are still underdoing this... they aren't factoring in high ratios or thundersnow yet. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 30" lollipops, especially if the first wave overperforms and drops 10" itself. If the first wave drops 10", then there could be 40" lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow ensemble mean even gets us in southeast minnesota in on the party. Isn't the gfs mean usually southeast of the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It doesn't get much sweeter than this, saved these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, the mean is either wetter or farther NW with the QPF. This is usually a redflag isn't it? Means more models are either A) Stronger/Wetter Farther NW C) A and B both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The nw trend went into hibernation for the last 3 years starting with March '08 in our favor...including and up to the storm last week where we could have used it. Now it's in full force again. This is reminiscent of storm tracking 4 or 5 years ago where I would have had no doubt it was over for us 3 days ago. no...this isn't coming east or south. NW trend isn't alive...the Euro being king again is alive. All the other guidance is just catching up to it really. Semantics I guess, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Went from 15-20 inches of snow here..to ice storm...and now potentially all rain. In 24 hours. NW trend reins supreme. Oh well cant win em all. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The store right next to my frat sells it, so that's covered. lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Makes sense me moneyman. I think we still have a shot at reaching warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I tried warning the Ohio guys that the guidance was gonna go NW and match up with the EURO. Oh well. Not over yet, but it is defintley looking that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NW trend isn't alive...the Euro being king again is alive. All the other guidance is just catching up to it really. Semantics I guess, but it is what it is. So far, this is the most impressive Euro performance i can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nice to see the GGEM finally took its head out of its ass. The irony, as someone said yesterday, is that they may have had the track right in the first place a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12Z GFS Bufkit for ORD 1.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So far, this is the most impressive Euro performance i can remember. It was pretty good with the Dec 10-11 MN blizzard, no? I like to think that it usually shines with the hooker type storms in the Midwest. All of the other guidance just plays catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, what a difference a day makes. Yesterday it looked like best case scenario for us was about 5 inches. Now the NAM, GFS, and GEM all drop a foot. Still a couple days out, but I'm getting quite pumped now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The irony, as someone said yesterday, is that they may have had the track right in the first place a few days ago. Brings the mix line almost into detroit. Getting a little nervous here. Chicago to grand rapids to saginaw does look to be in best spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The EURO did well, but the GFS caught on to the trend of a stronger and far North solution early, while the EURO was still suppressed along the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GFS for ORD: QPF: 1.57" Snowfall: 28.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Badger, you get about .38 QPF with the WAA. And 2nd storm you get about .58 QPF. Would be a good 5-7 inch first event and then a solid 7-10 2nd event for a total of 12-17. Could be higher depending on ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi everyone...new member here...always lurked since I don't have much met knowledge, and can't really contribute much But boy this storm has my interest...! OL...the fact that the Euro has been consistently increasing precip amounts our way (I am from, as a friend of mine from TO put it, "the arctic village that is Ottawa" haha)...showing 0.81 from 00z, along with temps below -10C throughout, shouldn't that be a good sign? The 00z GEFS also had good amounts, even though the op didn't. Since you are getting pumped, I take it things are looking up? I'll be cautiously pessimistic anyways, I'll get pumped when I see snow falling! My apologies for asking such questions, but I really can't read maps much to tell if things are looking up or getting pear-shaped! Hey welcome! Good to have another member from the city with the best climate in the world. Things are looking up. The 12z GFS was gold, giving us between 10-12" Can't say this enough. Incredible to think this is happening on the second anniversery of the 2009 February megabust. Almost poetic in fact. The trends have been the exact opposite to that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I can shift my Precip radar over its on the same page what area would you like it over If it could cover most of Ohio (I'm in Columbus) that would sweet. Thank you so much! Thanks, Beau also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The EURO did well, but the GFS caught on to the trend of a stronger and far North solution early, while the EURO was still suppressed along the Gulf Coast. The EURO was north all along then went south a fluke run and then went back to its original position.. GFS has been consistently south and just started playing catch up inching north every run a few days ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It was pretty good with the Dec 10-11 MN blizzard, no? I like to think that it usually shines with the hooker type storms in the Midwest. All of the other guidance just plays catch up. Yeah and the NAM did well there too once into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Brings the mix line almost into detroit. Getting a little nervous here. Chicago to grand rapids to saginaw does look to be in best spot. I'm hoping for a good solution for you guys too. We all deserve to share in the wealth. When it comes to snowstorms, I am a weather socialist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GFS for ORD: QPF: 1.57" Snowfall: 28.6" Strange I saw this http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MI&stn=KORD&model=gfs&time=2011013012&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z bufkit for the nam and gfs have a world ending ice storm here. but other sites with different methods have 10-15 inches of snow and sleet. dynamics will play a big role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey all. Over from the PHL/NYC forum. I am flying out of Allentown Tues at 6AM and heading to Chicago for meeting downtown. My flight leaves ORD at 7:08 Tues night. Couple questions: 1. Am I going to be delayed on Tues night heading out of ORD? Seems like the heavy stuff does not start till later. 2. Guess my best bet is to take the Metra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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