The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It almost always is. By how much this time? Hard to say. There are certainly a number of factors that will work against it though (heavy melting and very strong dynamic cooling), so expect so see some wild swings in p-type near the transition zone. this is going to decide my fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is the PV pushing this storm more east once it gets into Southern Indiana? It's starting to occlude by the time it gets there. The pressure field gets "baggy" on the east side due to incipient triple-point cyclogenesis. What you're seeing isn't an eastward shift of the system, just the beginnings of an energy transfer. The actual primary surface low will be located along the western side of the elongating pressure field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 60hr GGEM corrected back NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 this is going to decide my fate. Yes, your area is extremely close. LSX pointed out some of the finer details in their AFD this morning. It might be one of those wild-roller coaster rides for a while, especially if you get convection thrown into the mix (which would be a positive thing for snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/winter/chi_sno_hist.php Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms: 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886 Lots of MDW or lakefront storms on that list, other than Jan '99. Somewhat safe to stay, but this will be probably be, at worst, the 2nd largest storm to be measured officially at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS Indy on The Weather Channel (Historic Ice Storm/Similar to 1988 impacts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WAA is normally underdone to an extent but I'm not convinced that the icing threat is any less significant for areas along and North of I-70. There is an Easterly flow, tight baroclinic zone, it will be a fine line, but we'll see. During the 05 ice storm here, the models busted way high on temperatures. We were suppose to get about a quarter of an inch of ice and then change to rain. Needless to say, we never changed to rain and had all ZR due to the easterly flow and evap. cooling, ended up with an inch and a half of ice accretion. I think further east in Columbus we might be saved because the low should have a strong southerly wind push there. Still, this sounds similar b/c we're expecting about a quarter inch now before going to rain You're area may be in worse shape though with less of a surface warm push... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM finally comes in line with the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kocin is back on TWC right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New record looking VERY possible ... but we have to wait :) Good luck boys... No more complaining about snow after this monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Surface temperatures off of the 12z GFS, freezing line pretty much rides I-70 across Indiana and Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that? For Chicago's "official" climate record (ORD post-1980, MDW before that from 1942-1980, various downtown locations before that). Could a record be broken? Possibly. Could an all-time February record be broken? Rather likely at this point. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, your area is extremely close. LSX pointed out some of the finer details in their AFD this morning. It might be one of those wild-roller coaster rides for a while, especially if you get convection thrown into the mix (which would be a positive thing for snow). as the NW trend has been going on, models compared to 3 days ago are more snowy because of the stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS even further northwest with this run and now gives omaha .60of QPF..thats like 8-10" of snowfall Im really liking the northwest jog in models to give eastern Nebraska folks more snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WAA is normally underdone to an extent but I'm not convinced that the icing threat is any less significant for areas along and North of I-70. There is an Easterly flow, tight baroclinic zone, it will be a fine line, but we'll see. During the 05 ice storm here, the models busted way high on temperatures. We were suppose to get about a quarter of an inch of ice and then change to rain. Needless to say, we never changed to rain and had all ZR due to the easterly flow and evap. cooling, ended up with an inch and a half of ice accretion. When I'm talking about WAA in this case, it's aloft. Surface temps are going to struggle with that high pressure setup and moderately strong northeasterly wind fetch, that's for sure. While models typically underforecast WAA, they can also mess up with arctic airmasses near the surface too. In reality, the frontal slope will likely be more shallow than shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's starting to occlude by the time it gets there. The pressure field gets "baggy" on the east side due to incipient triple-point cyclogenesis. What you're seeing isn't an eastward shift of the system, just the beginnings of an energy transfer. The actual primary surface low will be located along the western side of the elongating pressure field. Wow a transfer that early. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is it because of the high pressure to it's northwest causing the system to occlude ealry? If not, what is the main reason it does that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone have the 12z GFS Bufkit for ORD?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boiler1111 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For Chicago's "official" climate record (ORD post-1980, MDW before that from 1942-1980, various downtown locations before that). Could a record be broken? Possibly. Could an all-time February record be broken? Rather likely at this point. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886 Yes- it's an interesting list - both the absence of any February storms and also two March 25-26 storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Far more precip for MSN on this run of the GFS than previous runs, looks like we're at about 1" liquid. If this trend continues much longer we could jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Far more precip for MSN on this run of the GFS than previous runs, looks like we're at about 1" liquid. If this trend continues much longer we could jackpot. stock up on 4loko while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone have the 12z GFS Bufkit for ORD?? It's not out just yet. Probably soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone have the 12z GFS Bufkit for ORD?? not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GGEM has a nice bullseye right over Chicago at 72 hours. 26mm of QPF in 12 hours... 1.02". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draxinar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow and the ukie responds by pumping up heights quicker in the eastern lakes than even the NAM and leaving the polar vortex teetering.....just a little more pump needed, but im enjoying the 12z trends Hi everyone...new member here...always lurked since I don't have much met knowledge, and can't really contribute much But boy this storm has my interest...! OL...the fact that the Euro has been consistently increasing precip amounts our way (I am from, as a friend of mine from TO put it, "the arctic village that is Ottawa" haha)...showing 0.81 from 00z, along with temps below -10C throughout, shouldn't that be a good sign? The 00z GEFS also had good amounts, even though the op didn't. Since you are getting pumped, I take it things are looking up? I'll be cautiously pessimistic anyways, I'll get pumped when I see snow falling! My apologies for asking such questions, but I really can't read maps much to tell if things are looking up or getting pear-shaped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I moved my GREarth - precipitation typing radar over - this will cover the region http://weatherobserv...ar_grearth2.htm Any chance it might get shifted a tad east later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nice to see the GGEM finally took its head out of its ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS Ens Mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I can shift my Precip radar over its on the same page what area would you like it over Any chance it might get shifted a tad east later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If we can not cool enough for snow/sleet. this ice event would be the worst ever here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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