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January 31-February 2 Potentially Historic Winter Storm


Hoosier

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Euro has had this AR/Bootheel track nailed for days. Definitely deserves some kudos for sniffing this thing out early. It did pretty darn well with the MSP blizzard in December that was like this storm too.

5 straight runs by my count. It was actually pretty decent picking up on this potential all the way back around D8-10. Just had a couple of wobbly runs around 150-168 where it suppressed the storm. But out of all the guidance, EURO was king*

* Since it's still two days out I guess technically it's still to be determined.

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At least we know that the beast is alive!

Definite NW trend... Between 6z and 12z, wonder just how much more it could jump..

the general location of the SW to NE baroclinic zone seems to have excellent agreement so i doubt it's going to shift radically and were seeing some hints of quick occlusion after rapid intensification which would prevent it from pulling too hard of a left turn. I'd like to think there aren't any major NW shifts in the future, but i could be wrong.

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UKMET at hour 60 has a 994 in NE Arkansas.

this is what i want to see :clap:

i want to see the CHI-DET-TOR corridor pummeled into submission by a rapidly intensifying, DEEP low. this is exciting for me.

in addition, i have come to the realization that the only thing that is going to overthrow the Polar Vortex regime is an intense low

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the general location of the SW to NE baroclinic zone seems to have excellent agreement so i doubt it's going to shift radically and were seeing some hints of quick occlusion after rapid intensification which would prevent it from pulling too hard of a left turn. I'd like to think there aren't any major NW shifts in the future, but i could be wrong.

There likely aren't any more major ones, with that NW curve being fully modeled. Slight shifts of 30 or so miles or less are always possible though.

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At least we know that the beast is alive!

Definite NW trend... Between 6z and 12z, wonder just how much more it could jump..

I'm not sure there's much left. Seems to me the Euro has been the most consistent with its track...others are just catching up. To me, we're pretty locked and loaded with the general outline of this storm...only "noisy" very minor moves would be probable IMO. Bottom line, a potentially historic offering for folks from SW MO all the way to NE IL/SE WI and then southern lower MI/and maybe southern Ontario.

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Also, I've seen everyone say that the WAA is usually underdone.. Do you think that the WAA is still underdone?

It almost always is. By how much this time? Hard to say. There are certainly a number of factors that will work against it though (heavy melting and very strong dynamic cooling), so expect so see some wild swings in p-type near the transition zone.

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Also, I've seen everyone say that the WAA is usually underdone.. Do you think that the WAA is still underdone?

WAA is normally underdone to an extent but I'm not convinced that the icing threat is any less significant for areas along and North of I-70. There is an Easterly flow, tight baroclinic zone, it will be a fine line, but we'll see. During the 05 ice storm here, the models busted way high on temperatures. We were suppose to get about a quarter of an inch of ice and then change to rain. Needless to say, we never changed to rain and had all ZR due to the easterly flow and evap. cooling, ended up with an inch and a half of ice accretion.

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What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/winter/chi_sno_hist.php

Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:

  1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
  2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
  3. 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930
  4. 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979
  5. 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931
  6. 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929
  7. 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939
  8. 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918
  9. 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970
  10. 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886

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