Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 According hte 12z NAM that would be 3.24" of sleet! WISH-TV showing the rain line up to just south of indy.. Warmer and "wetter" the trend for us. Seen this play out before, haven't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro has had this AR/Bootheel track nailed for days. Definitely deserves some kudos for sniffing this thing out early. It did pretty darn well with the MSP blizzard in December that was like this storm too. 5 straight runs by my count. It was actually pretty decent picking up on this potential all the way back around D8-10. Just had a couple of wobbly runs around 150-168 where it suppressed the storm. But out of all the guidance, EURO was king* * Since it's still two days out I guess technically it's still to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looking better for eastern nebraska even a winter storm watch for me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Warmer and "wetter" the trend for us. Seen this play out before, haven't we? Sure have.. I even make it above freezing for a 6 hour period.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I really think we are narrowing in on a solution for most of Central Indiana and Western Ohio and the them remains a significant ice storm, even if we break freezing for a couple hours as the low moves across, by that point, the damage will have already been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 12z GFS has officially crossed the 1.5" threshold for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry M for kicks, actually for once, doesn't look like a half bad map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looking better for eastern nebraska even a winter storm watch for me now Impressive. I would assume the 1.25+ amounts don't continue NE through canada because of the transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is pretty epic for Alek and company. QPF is crazy. Hope it happens, going to be a nice storm to track. Thank you for your thoughts. And I know mid atlantic and northeastern people can use a breather before the Feb. and March coastals come your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 harry M map sucks, imho, shows only 0-3 inches for me and omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sure have.. I even make it above freezing for a 6 hour period.. No doubt in my mind LAF breaks 32º for a little bit too. Trends are trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry M for kicks, actually for once, doesn't look like a half bad map First Accurate map ive seen him do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS went from .4 qpf here to .75 in one run. I'll take it. Trend so far today is defintley for a more amped/nw system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No doubt in my mind LAF breaks 32º for a little bit too. Trends are trends. At least we know that the beast is alive! Definite NW trend... Between 6z and 12z, wonder just how much more it could jump.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At least we know that the beast is alive! Definite NW trend... Between 6z and 12z, wonder just how much more it could jump.. the general location of the SW to NE baroclinic zone seems to have excellent agreement so i doubt it's going to shift radically and were seeing some hints of quick occlusion after rapid intensification which would prevent it from pulling too hard of a left turn. I'd like to think there aren't any major NW shifts in the future, but i could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nam gives me 15-18 inches of sleet and snow, gfs gives me 12 inches of snow/sleet in a lot of ice. Even with more NW trends models still want to crash temps and take snow accms close to the SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 UKMET at hour 60 has a 994 in NE Arkansas. this is what i want to see i want to see the CHI-DET-TOR corridor pummeled into submission by a rapidly intensifying, DEEP low. this is exciting for me. in addition, i have come to the realization that the only thing that is going to overthrow the Polar Vortex regime is an intense low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the general location of the SW to NE baroclinic zone seems to have excellent agreement so i doubt it's going to shift radically and were seeing some hints of quick occlusion after rapid intensification which would prevent it from pulling too hard of a left turn. I'd like to think there aren't any major NW shifts in the future, but i could be wrong. There likely aren't any more major ones, with that NW curve being fully modeled. Slight shifts of 30 or so miles or less are always possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There likely aren't any more major ones, with that NW curve being fully modeled. Slight shifts of 30 or so miles or less are always possible though. thanks, this is what i wanted to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There likely aren't any more major ones, with that NW curve being fully modeled. Slight shifts of 30 or so miles or less are always possible though. Also, I've seen everyone say that the WAA is usually underdone.. Do you think that the WAA is still underdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is the PV pushing this storm more east once it gets into Southern Indiana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At least we know that the beast is alive! Definite NW trend... Between 6z and 12z, wonder just how much more it could jump.. I'm not sure there's much left. Seems to me the Euro has been the most consistent with its track...others are just catching up. To me, we're pretty locked and loaded with the general outline of this storm...only "noisy" very minor moves would be probable IMO. Bottom line, a potentially historic offering for folks from SW MO all the way to NE IL/SE WI and then southern lower MI/and maybe southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Also, I've seen everyone say that the WAA is usually underdone.. Do you think that the WAA is still underdone? It almost always is. By how much this time? Hard to say. There are certainly a number of factors that will work against it though (heavy melting and very strong dynamic cooling), so expect so see some wild swings in p-type near the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 72 hours UKIE wow and the ukie responds by pumping up heights quicker in the eastern lakes than even the NAM and leaving the polar vortex teetering.....just a little more pump needed, but im enjoying the 12z trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Also, I've seen everyone say that the WAA is usually underdone.. Do you think that the WAA is still underdone? WAA is normally underdone to an extent but I'm not convinced that the icing threat is any less significant for areas along and North of I-70. There is an Easterly flow, tight baroclinic zone, it will be a fine line, but we'll see. During the 05 ice storm here, the models busted way high on temperatures. We were suppose to get about a quarter of an inch of ice and then change to rain. Needless to say, we never changed to rain and had all ZR due to the easterly flow and evap. cooling, ended up with an inch and a half of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that? 23" in '67...and we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boiler1111 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/winter/chi_sno_hist.php Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms: 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that? 23" in Jan 1967. Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the record for most snow in a storm in Chicago AND could this break that? i might be wrong, but 23" or so. And early indications say it's in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.