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January 31-February 2 Potentially Historic Winter Storm


Hoosier

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HPC

..UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY

THROUGH THE PERIOD...

...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED...

THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING

CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO

CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...ITS SOLUTION WHICH IS

SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS

THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED UNTIL

CONFIRMED BY NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY

FASTER BUT SHOW

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I have to say that for a country of such weather extremes, we in Canada are poorly served by our weather agencies (Environment Canada and The Weather Network). I mean, TWN is calling for 2-4" in Toronto, when they could potentially get 12-15". Unreal.

The on air mets are saying that, or the automated forecast displays?

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HPC

..UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY

THROUGH THE PERIOD...

...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED...

THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING

CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO

CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...ITS SOLUTION WHICH IS

SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS

THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED UNTIL

CONFIRMED BY NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY

FASTER BUT SHOW

I'll go help Powerball in off the ledge.

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from a strictly non-meteorological point of view another positive to this model run for Chicago posters is when Aleking goes conservative on this thing in about 24 hours he can only ratchet it down to 12"-16" in his backyard :thumbsup:

I've set the happiness bar at 12" for this storm, which is pretty damn high from a climo standpoint and 60hrs out. I'll refrain from making a call until after the 0z guidance tonight but it does look like 20"+ amounts will at least be considered. Another thing of note is that even an 8-10 inch snowfall with the kind of winds forecasted will push things to blizzard conditions along the lakefront and in open areas. LOT's overnight was kind of lame all things considered, this afternoons should be a good one.

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I've set the happiness bar at 12" for this storm, which is pretty damn high from a climo standpoint and 60hrs out. I'll refrain from making a call until after the 0z guidance tonight but it does look like 20"+ amounts will at least be considered. Another thing of note is that even an 8-10 inch snowfall with the kind of winds forecasted will push things to blizzard conditions along the lakefront and in open areas. LOT's overnight was kind of lame all things considered, this afternoons should be a good one.

hope for Izzi AFD....

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So funny how people get upset with one inconsistent NAM run :lol: when everyone knows its going to waffle.

Yea I have seen the NAM 48+ hours out screw up a lot. It has nailed quite a few storms though from 3 days out so who knows. Makes me wonder though about thwe HPC. In the past when they have questioned models, they have ended up pretty accurate depsite their claims. But it's normal for overeaction to one model.

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