roardog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So, who is going to be the first person to complain that they only received 12 inches of snow while someone to their NW received 20 inches? You know it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from a strictly non-meteorological point of view another positive to this model run for Chicago posters is when Aleking goes conservative on this thing in about 24 hours he can only ratchet it down to 12"-16" in his backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, what a shift for the DVN area. I'm at a loss for words for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So, who is going to be the first person to complain that they only received 12 inches of snow while someone to their NW received 20 inches? You know it will happen. 12's fine by me. If I get 6 I'll b**ch a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is the big one for Milwaukee! LSE showing 3-7" for here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have to say that for a country of such weather extremes, we in Canada are poorly served by our weather agencies (Environment Canada and The Weather Network). I mean, TWN is calling for 2-4" in Toronto, when they could potentially get 12-15". Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC ..UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED... THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...ITS SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT SHOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So funny how people get upset with one inconsistent NAM run when everyone knows its going to waffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 obligatory eye candy. Looks underdone for ORD. Simply amazing. Looks like Ottawa is going to get screwed. Cold storms do happen up here, but it looks like the cold will force the heaviest precip south of us. Missing out on weather history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have to say that for a country of such weather extremes, we in Canada are poorly served by our weather agencies (Environment Canada and The Weather Network). I mean, TWN is calling for 2-4" in Toronto, when they could potentially get 12-15". Unreal. The on air mets are saying that, or the automated forecast displays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This thing is going to make for an UGLY Chicago commute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Simply amazing. Looks like Ottawa is going to get screwed. Cold storms do happen up here, but it looks like the cold will force the heaviest precip south of us. Missing out on weather history. You still get 15-20cm based on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z NAM = 3" sleet for Kokomo. Dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This thing is going to make for an UGLY Chicago commute! Probably not going to be a commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC ..UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CA TO THE S. PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD... ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING TX TO THE OH VALLEY TUE-WED... THE NAM SHOWS SUSPICIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL AMPLIFICATION CROSSING CALIFORNIA TODAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO CONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK. THUS...ITS SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IS SERIOUSLY QUESTIONED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT SHOW I'll go help Powerball in off the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from a strictly non-meteorological point of view another positive to this model run for Chicago posters is when Aleking goes conservative on this thing in about 24 hours he can only ratchet it down to 12"-16" in his backyard I've set the happiness bar at 12" for this storm, which is pretty damn high from a climo standpoint and 60hrs out. I'll refrain from making a call until after the 0z guidance tonight but it does look like 20"+ amounts will at least be considered. Another thing of note is that even an 8-10 inch snowfall with the kind of winds forecasted will push things to blizzard conditions along the lakefront and in open areas. LOT's overnight was kind of lame all things considered, this afternoons should be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 To any of the mets here, do you think the 12z NAM is over-amplified this run (like the HPC is suggesting)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 To any of the mets here, do you think the 12z NAM is over-amplified this run (like the HPC is suggesting)? As I stated elsewhere, It might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Probably not going to be a commute. I was at the office all day yesterday and am already there today trying to catchup in anticipation of getting nothing done Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 To any of the mets here, do you think the 12z NAM is over-amplified this run (like the HPC is suggesting)? I think it has the right idea, just slightly off on the track. I liked the 06Z NAM a little better for track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've set the happiness bar at 12" for this storm, which is pretty damn high from a climo standpoint and 60hrs out. I'll refrain from making a call until after the 0z guidance tonight but it does look like 20"+ amounts will at least be considered. Another thing of note is that even an 8-10 inch snowfall with the kind of winds forecasted will push things to blizzard conditions along the lakefront and in open areas. LOT's overnight was kind of lame all things considered, this afternoons should be a good one. hope for Izzi AFD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As I stated elsewhere, It might be. Anything that shows 38" for Chicago is suspect. But it isn't like it's radically different from other guidance or its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago plow drivers will be working LONG hours this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anything that shows 38" for Chicago is suspect. But it isn't like it's radically different from other guidance or its previous runs. And that's my fear. If it was radically diferent I would sort of ignore it too, but that's somewhat hard to do right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 To the midwest Guys & Gals, I hope you have your camcorders charged and your cameras ready to go... I hope you get blasted by this storm, stay safe. from your friend back east Chris, Langhorne PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anything that shows 38" for Chicago is suspect. But it isn't like it's radically different from other guidance or its previous runs. No radically it is not, but it is on the NW edge of the envelope you have to treat it as such until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know when to fold 'em and I'll do it with a touch of class congrats to the chicago-detroit-and Harry crowd!!! YOU GUYS GONNA GET THUMPED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 what time does the gfs start rolling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So funny how people get upset with one inconsistent NAM run when everyone knows its going to waffle. Yea I have seen the NAM 48+ hours out screw up a lot. It has nailed quite a few storms though from 3 days out so who knows. Makes me wonder though about thwe HPC. In the past when they have questioned models, they have ended up pretty accurate depsite their claims. But it's normal for overeaction to one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's rolling in now what time does the gfs start rolling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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