snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Group of models emerging (ETA/GEM/NOGAPS) that don't amplify the southern stream wave as it ejects out, causing the surface low to track further south and east. Obviously I'm siding with the more reputable models as they seem to be catching on to how vigorous the s/w looks on WV loop off the CA coast. But it's something to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does that mean Indy goes into an icy situation again? Don't know the particulars unfortunately. But the GFS ensemble mean certainly expanded the NW side of the QPF field. Here's the 0z GFS ensemble mean plots: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost 25" at ORD on GFS Bufkit. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kord&ratio=15&max_t=1&cobb=1&compaction=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WOW: That's quite the NW shift. Looks like for the first time the ensemble members will be to the NW of the OP on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Any news on the Ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can i just say that following this so far has been nothing short of awesome lol This right here the last few days is why I love meteorology and how its a love and passion and at times like this, an addiction lol just had to say that. following this tonight while training day and remember the titans on TV with ribs has been the best lol props to all who post on here and the great analysis we are putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Any news on the Ukmet? Based on how it looked at 72, it'll be in the NAM/EURO/GFS/GEFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TS, you're watching RTT also? Such a great movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is my first call...sort of. Here are the 2 most likely scenarios for LAF as I see it: Scenario 1: all or mostly snow...18" or more Scenario 2: snow, a lot of sleet and possibly a bit of zr Considering the extremely tight thermal gradient, some uncertainty on exact track and model tendency to underdo WAA, I don't have a lot of confidence either way at this point. If scenario 2 pans out, then snow accumulations would be held in check. If scenario 1 pans out, then we're looking at one of the greatest snowstorms of all-time. In my view, the worst case scenario is about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Group of models emerging (ETA/GEM/NOGAPS) that don't amplify the southern stream wave as it ejects out, causing the surface low to track further south and east. Obviously I'm siding with the more reputable models as they seem to be catching on to how vigorous the s/w looks on WV loop off the CA coast. But it's something to watch I guess. That's like the 7-8-9 (PH) hitters in the Cubs lineup starting a 2 out, no one on base rally in the bottom of the 8th...down 6-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't know the particulars unfortunately. But the GFS ensemble mean certainly expanded the NW side of the QPF field. Here's the 0z GFS ensemble mean plots: http://raleighwx.ame...fsensemble.html Thanks, unfortunately it was a lot more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TS, you're watching RTT also? Such a great movie. one of my favorite movies off all-time, I know every line lol and with Training Day on before it, a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Based on how it looked at 72, it'll be in the NAM/EURO/GFS/GEFS camp. The great thing about the CMC is you can typically tell when it is just junk. It won't be scoring a coup here with the odd way it develops this system. NOGAPS stinks--wouldn't bother with its resolution in both the horizontal and vertical--and the eta can really stink it up at times. The eta is ruining the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can i just say that following this so far has been nothing short of awesome lol This right here the last few days is why I love meteorology and how its a love and passion and at times like this, an addiction lol just had to say that. following this tonight while training day and remember the titans on TV with ribs has been the best lol props to all who post on here and the great analysis we are putting out. Hell yeah, it's truly been a treat tracking this storm over the last several days. It's really going to deliver the goods in a big way over an expansive area. The icestorm part of it really sucks though, as it will unfortunately seriously disrupt peoples lives. Hopefully there's enough sleet mixing in to keep ice accretion to a minimum over some of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow looks like really good snow for us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is this going to happen? This is absolutely INSANE! I'm sorry, but something has to give, one way or the other... Someone is getting thumped, that is for sure, but something has to give around here, I cannot comprehend a storm like this happening after being predicted for the last 4 days. I lived through '78 and '99, and I remember some other heavy storms, but, I remember, in a few of those cases, the storm was a surprise, it was something that was not forecast... If this verifies with the amount of snow (Widespread 18"-24"????) it is going to shut down this area, at least for a day or so, unless, because of the long duration of the event, streets can be kept more or less passable, to some extent. The other component is the icing potential for S and E of the low. That is positively frightening. I have lived through a couple 1/2" ice storms, and it's not fun by any means. That is when weather get scary. I am going to be on pins and needles for the next 3 days, watching this unfold, and hoping it happens more or less as forecast. I just cannot wrap my head around this, I really can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Has anyone else noticed how the Canadian model seems to have a warm bias much of the time? It's as if Al Gore helped design the thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is my first call...sort of. Here are the 2 most likely scenarios for LAF as I see it: Scenario 1: all or mostly snow...18" or more Scenario 2: snow, a lot of sleet and possibly a bit of zr Considering the extremely tight thermal gradient, some uncertainty on exact track and model tendency to underdo WAA, I don't have a lot of confidence either way at this point. If scenario 2 pans out, then snow accumulations would be held in check. If scenario 1 pans out, then we're looking at one of the greatest snowstorms of all-time. In my view, the worst case scenario is about 6". Good stuff man, we're obviously riding an unknown line right now. It's a tough call either way. I think I'll have my call ready by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The great thing about the CMC is you can typically tell when it is just junk. It won't be scoring a coup here with the odd way it develops this system. NOGAPS stinks--wouldn't bother with its resolution in both the horizontal and vertical--and the eta can really stink it up at times. The eta is ruining the SREF mean. Yeah, any idea why they include the ETA? Maybe you can ask when you are at your new job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is this going to happen? This is absolutely INSANE! I'm sorry, but something has to give, one way or the other... Someone is getting thumped, that is for sure, but something has to give around here, I cannot comprehend a storm like this happening after being predicted for the last 4 days. I lived through '78 and '99, and I remember some other heavy storms, but, I remember, in a few of those cases, the storm was a surprise, it was something that was not forecast... If this verifies with the amount of snow (Widespread 18"-24"????) it is going to shut down this area, at least for a day or so, unless, because of the long duration of the event, streets can be kept more or less clear. The other component is the icing potential for S and E of the low. That is positively frightening. I have lived through a couple 1/2" ice storms, and it's not fun by any means. That is when weather get scary. I am going to be on pins and needles for the next 3 days, watching this unfold, and hoping it happens more or less as forecast. I just cannot wrap my head around this, I really can't. No kidding. Same here. I just keep thinking that the next model run will shift the storm to NYC and Boston again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Im liking the new ensembles giving Omaha between .40-.50, could be a good 3-7" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The great thing about the CMC is you can typically tell when it is just junk. It won't be scoring a coup here with the odd way it develops this system. NOGAPS stinks--wouldn't bother with its resolution in both the horizontal and vertical--and the eta can really stink it up at times. The eta is ruining the SREF mean. Baro, what are your thoughts if any on the waa snows up here starting tomorrow evening?...most models spitting out .4 - .6 qpf over w/s mn through the event...wondering if thats a little overdone, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's like the 7-8-9 (PH) hitters in the Cubs lineup starting a 2 out, no one on base rally in the bottom of the 8th...down 6-1. I didn't even want to mention them but it just seems like things are going too perfectly with the EURO/GFS/NAM. Even with the big ones is it ever this easy? There always has to be a less favorable plan B, and those models are it. Luckily though they'd still be several inches of snow so things are looking swell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, any idea why they include the ETA? Maybe you can ask when you are at your new job. I actually heard the eta and RSM members will be dropped from the SREF suite very shortly. Not sure what they are going to replace those with though. I will ask though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I actually heard the eta and RSM members will be dropped from the SREF suite very shortly. Not sure what they are going to replace those with though. I will ask though ngm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No kidding. Same here. I just keep thinking that the next model run will shift the storm to NYC and Boston again. Same here...I am afraid I am going to wake up, and I'll be reading.... oh, never mind, I am not going to jinx this by saying anything negative..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I actually heard the eta and RSM members will be dropped from the SREF suite very shortly. Not sure what they are going to replace those with though. I will ask though Good, they probably just offset each other anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro, what are your thoughts if any on the waa snows up here starting tomorrow evening?...most models spitting out .4 - .6 qpf over w/s mn through the event...wondering if thats a little overdone, thanks. I would keep an eye on what goes on tonight/tomorrow in Montana and the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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