ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OMG with the 12z NAM over chicago @ 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 we still have a little room. Over 2" all snow this run. ya I'm not worried yet but I hope it stops there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 we still have a little room. Over 2" all snow this run. This run is showing the NW-track curve, something I really wanted to see yesterday, so that's good news, and a sign that it's probably close to being on track. Problems with this run include: 1) QPFs are in all likelihood a bit overdone. 2) We're still not inside the NAM's "safe" zone of 48 hrs. 3) Low will probably occlude a bit faster than progged here, so that will make a difference on downstream totals and p-type. It's hard to be specific, but if you're right on the line, that could be good news. The most important parts are that there's still 1"+ of QPF over a wide area and the trend has been upward with a stronger storm. I also have to mention the jet coupling again, because I'm not sure that can be overstated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 QPF is higher everywhere. ORD-DTW buried. Low is too close for comfort! Chicago gets 2-2.5 of precip. Definately a blizzard. average of 2.25 with a 13-15 ratios...almost 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run is showing the NW-track curve, something I really wanted to see yesterday, so that's good news, and a sign that it's probably close to being on track. Problems with this run include: 1) QPFs are in all likelihood a bit overdone. 2) We're still not inside the NAM's "safe" zone of 48 hrs. 3) Low will probably occlude a bit faster than progged here, so that will make a difference on downstream totals and p-type. It's hard to be specific, but if you're right on the line, that could be good news. The most important parts are that there's still 1"+ of QPF over a wide area and the trend has been upward with a stronger storm. I also have to mention the jet coupling again, because I'm not sure that can be overstated. Occluding faster would mean what for those in chicago and detroit? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run is showing the NW-track curve, something I really wanted to see yesterday, so that's good news, and a sign that it's probably close to being on track. Problems with this run include: 1) QPFs are in all likelihood a bit overdone. 2) We're still not inside the NAM's "safe" zone of 48 hrs. 3) Low will probably occlude a bit faster than progged here, so that will make a difference on downstream totals and p-type. It's hard to be specific, but if you're right on the line, that could be good news. The most important parts are that there's still 1"+ of QPF over a wide area and the trend has been upward with a stronger storm. I also have to mention the jet coupling again, because I'm not sure that can be overstated. Thanks for your thougts, luckily we can afford to lose a large chunk of that QPF. Nice LE signal at the tail end as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Occluding faster would mean what for those in chicago and detroit? Thanks If it occludes faster, the colder air will draw around the low faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Toronto likely to be over 1.25" QPF with the NAM. Good agreement with the EURO. Just have to keep an eye on any sleet/dryslot issues but there's a bit of a buffer for a slight further NW adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If it occludes faster, the colder air will draw around the low faster. Does it affect the track of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That was a fantasy run for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That was a fantasy run for the ages. possibly a once in a lifetime run lol earthlight and his nor'easters ain't got s**t on us haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is pretty epic for Alek and company. QPF is crazy. Hope it happens, going to be a nice storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is pretty epic for Alek and company. QPF is crazy. Hope it happens, going to be a nice storm to track. Me too, I'd love to see the goofy NAM snow product. I'd look but don't know the link for it. I'm sure it's got crazy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cobb output for 12z NAM for ORD is 38", 35 for MDW, 23 for RFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 B-E-A..utiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Detroit-Monroe corridor in Michigan apparently has sleet mixed in this run as the 850mb temps poke up to 0*C to 1*C at 69hr. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 obligatory eye candy. Looks underdone for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haha, that's wallpaper worthy material right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 obligatory eye candy. Looks underdone for ORD. DTW 20+ toledo 5...NW trend FTFL...Thats enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Detroit-Monroe corridor in Michigan apparently has sleet mixed in this run as the 850mb temps poke up to 0*C to 1*C at 69hr. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false Looks like barely the southern half of Monroe County. Detroit's fine there unless I'm mixing up the contour lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd have like 3 feet of snow on the ground after this storm if that were to verify! Epic spring flooding to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cobb output for 12z NAM for ORD is 38", 35 for MDW, 23 for RFD i've always figured our theoretical ceiling was around 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is pretty epic for Alek and company. QPF is crazy. Hope it happens, going to be a nice storm to track. Hi Randy, this storm is keeping me out of AP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i've always figured our theoretical ceiling was around 30". 38". lol I can't even imagine the city of Chicago dealing with 38" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW I blame powerball for starting the NW trend by not letting hoosier start the last thread although I have my doubts on the temps IMO, but if the nam verifies a lot of the ILX area will have to go with the ice storm line and not so much of the snowstorm line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 how is it looking for buffalo? I'm on my phone cant view images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW I blame powerball for starting the NW trend by not letting hoosier start the last thread although I have my doubts on the temps IMO, but if the nam verifies a lot of the ILX area will have to go with the ice storm line and not so much of the snowstorm line The funny thing is everything set up perfectly when I started the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The funny thing is everything set up perfectly when I started the thread. Look at it this way. It would have to trend substantially NW for you to get plain rain. Maybe you'll end up with a decent ice storm if it continues NW. That's more interesting than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 how is it looking for buffalo? I'm on my phone cant view images I'm thinking you guys get at least a few hours of sleet. Otherwise, still a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Look at it this way. It would have to trend substantially NW for you to get plain rain. Maybe you'll end up with a decent ice storm if it continues NW. That's more interesting than rain. I'd personally pass on the ice. While I enjoy that type of extreme weather, it can cause A LOT more damage than rain or snow, and it's not worth taking the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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