backdoorfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 STL Throurgh Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I feel like a kid before Christmas Ice makes me extremely nervous though, especially after living through 8 days of no power/hell after the 05 ice storm. Yeah, If i were in the ice area I'd be doing some preparation work today and monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 still catching up after all the overnight action trying to dig out the euro QPF, but wow is this really happening? someone pinch me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 still catching up after all the overnight action trying to dig out the euro QPF, but wow is this really happening? someone pinch me. Not sinking in here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This storm looks like the classic NW trend type of storm. We don't have the insane high latitude blocking this time. I'm feeling cautiously comfortable being just north of the heaviest snow area right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, If i were in the ice area I'd be doing some preparation work today and monday. Hell I think there is even some preparation for those who are expecting >12" with wind. I know I am already trying to figure out a few things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sinking in here either. I just saw the Euro and cannot ever recall this kind of agreement on well over an inch of liquid. Potentially historic is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hate these graphics so much. No one cares about JUST YOUR CWA! Not like it asking for the moon to piece the full NDFD together to create an actually usable image. Sheesh. Why not go find your own graphics? I'm hearing rumors that the Internet is full of them nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Didn't catch this in IWX AFD: ...HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE BACKED UP TO INCLUDE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING FOR MORE SIG SNOWFALL AS INDICATED IN WIDESPREAD SWATCH OF 4-8 INCHES SEEN IN SOME 00Z HIGHRES GUIDANCE. this alone would be a nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I love how in HPC's model diagnostic discussion they don't even bother mentioning the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That run would be absolutely epic....24" would seem like a real possibility here. Normally we'll analyze a storm and say "i think 8 inches is a real possibility". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This storm will produce thundersnow and thunder sleet all over the dang place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Being in the 70% ice bullseye at 3 days out is not good on my stomach as an emergency services worker. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, I woke up this morning, caught up, and I have only one word: WOW. 6Z GFS/03 SREF and 06 NAM have all come N and NW somewhat with their precip shields and SLP, not totally shocking given what I was seeing yesterday evening, but still amazing to see all of it line up in one run. The 00Z Euro is pretty much a carbon copy of its last few runs (with some minor changes). I too, cannot recall seeing so much agreement on 1"+ QPF over such a wide area at this time frame. With this stuff lining up, I'll start tossing out some amounts here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I am reading the soundings correctly, the warm layer won't give way until after hour 75 south of LAF. That is going to be a long period of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We need to start seeing Blizzard Watches today, because pretty much all of these profiles are suggesting that there won't be much of a problem verifying that. Winter Storm Watches aren't gonna cut it in this scenario. I am seeing - consistently mind you - near-dry adiabatic low level thermal profiles with access to 50-60+ knot winds for a while. Some real gust and sustained wind potential there, especially with a rapidly deepening cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I am reading the soundings correctly, the warm layer won't give way until after hour 75 south of LAF. That is going to be a long period of icing. I'll get the GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings up and get back to you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll get the GFS and NAM BUFKIT soundings up and get back to you on that. thanks Going to try and find the best snow tires I can for our truck today. We have to be able to make it to the hospital sometime in the next 3 days for a baby delivery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM gives IND 1.9" of FZRA.. and 1" of snow. IND making a very bad, call on already issuing WSW this far out I think.. Why is issuing a watch a bad call? It raises awareness for a potentially very bad situation. As noted earlier, the watch can be upgraded to an ice storm warning/winter storm warning as needed. It can be canceled if the storm moves northwest. I would rather raise awareness and be wrong than not and have people say the storm came "without warning". (No I was not the one issuing the watch or involved in the decision making). Personally I am hoping for the NW trend so it's just rain here. I hate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Normally we'll analyze a storm and say "i think 8 inches is a real possibility". Love it. This is amazing. That map Chi storm posted from LOT is insane and still not high enough IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We need to start seeing Blizzard Watches today, because pretty much all of these profiles are suggesting that there won't be much of a problem verifying that. Winter Storm Watches aren't gonna cut it in this scenario. I am seeing - consistently mind you - near-dry adiabatic low level thermal profiles with access to 50-60+ knot winds for a while. Some real gust and sustained wind potential there, especially with a rapidly deepening cyclone. Living lakeside often sucks, for example november and most of december and then again all spring. But when something like this is possible, it's going to pay off in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thanks Going to try and find the best snow tires I can for our truck today. We have to be able to make it to the hospital sometime in the next 3 days for a baby delivery. Looks like a sleet-fest there, given smoothing and biases. The NAM in particular tries very hard to flip to snow a couple of times, and given the dynamics, I wouldn't be surprised, especially during convectively enhanced precip. But for now, I would be comfortable with +SNPL. Probably 6-10" of the white stuff mixed in with 2-3" of sleet. This stuff will be like concrete and very difficult to remove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Living lakeside often sucks, for example november and most of december and then again all spring. But when something like this is possible, it's going to pay off in a big way. I'm about 3-4 miles east of Randall Rd. out here in Kane Co. That is about the dividing line between Batavia and country living lol out west of Randall is open road, farms and can see for miles. Going to be nasty out by that way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I noticed the 3z SREF ETA members abandoned their suppressed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm about 3-4 miles east of Randall Rd. out here in Kane Co. That is about the dividing line between Batavia and country living lol out west of Randall is open road, farms and can see for miles. Going to be nasty out by that way for sure. I'm very familiar with that area, could see some wicked drifting along those roadside drainage ditches. I really hope we don't have any major hiccups, my hopes are way too up for this one. 12" or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The '99 blizzard was not a total surprise; in fact, it was predicted about as far in advance. I can't speak for the blizzards in the late '70's since I wasn't alive then, but meteorology has advanced very greatly since that time. There are a couple of times I remember being surprised either way. Snow forecasting seemed to be very hit or miss back then. I can remember a couple of over performers as well as underperformers and more than a couple "no performers". I am sure that back then, modeling was not as sophisticated as it is now, and forecasts beyond, say 5 days were "by guess and by gosh". Also, if I remember correctly, storms of any kind, severe thunder, or snow, were not forecast as far out as they are now. This thread is case in point, it has been going for 10 days, if not more, now. Granted the storm track has changed, but the fact that a storm was predicted that many days in advance shows just how far things have come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, the 06Z NAM is a devastating ice storm for Indianapolis. 1.5" ice on a metropolitan area? GFS isn't far behind, given the smoothing it usually has on its soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm very familiar with that area, could see some wicked drifting along those roadside drainage ditches. I really hope we don't have any major hiccups, my hopes are way too up for this one. 12" or bust. sweet, have you been out here? more like 18"+ or bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 sweet, have you been out here? more like 18"+ or bust lol I'm sticking with 12" because expecting 18" still 60 hrs out is madness, if things hold through 0z tonight i might freak out. My parents live out in southern Mchenry and i have other family in the general fox river valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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