paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM gives IND 1.9" of FZRA.. and 1" of inch. IND making a very bad, call on already issuing WSW this far out I think.. It is a watch, not a warning. They can upgrade it to pretty much anything (any precip type). Hitting FZRA is difficult, and you're still looking three days out so I see no problems here. You give one run of one model too much credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well forget what I said--the Chanhassen NWS is going full blown warning. wonder why the warning?...ABR & FSD going with advisory with similar amounts....i'm not complaining though, i'm pumped and this area not expecting the worst of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM gives IND 1.9" of FZRA.. and 1" of inch. IND making a very bad, call on already issuing WSW this far out I think.. 1) 1" of inch?????? 2) Why do you think the watch is a bad call? Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 holy <bleep> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wonder why the warning?...ABR & FSD going with advisory with similar amounts....i'm not complaining though, i'm pumped and this area not expecting the worst of the storm. It is very close based on the warning criteria. They could go either way here and prolly be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A question was raised earlier that I didn't catch a response to and was wondering if someone with expertise could commentate. Given that the precipitation is going to be so heavy in places like IND and MIE when the prime icing conditions are occurring, what are the chances that the heavy precipitation cools the warm nose faster than the models are predicting? I am sitting here in Muncie, and we are right on that frz/sn line. Also, would having a snowpack, even if it's relatively light, help this process as well? Muncie's got about 3" at the moment and should hold onto it up until the storm hits. (Anything to not have 1"+ of ice. lol) Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1) 1" of inch?????? 2) Why do you think the watch is a bad call? Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk They could of waited until the afternoon package to issue the watch. It's becoming very apparent that things are shifting NW, why raise everyone's awareness if there really ends up not being a threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 feb1_lot.jpg I hate these graphics so much. No one cares about JUST YOUR CWA! Not like it asking for the moon to piece the full NDFD together to create an actually usable image. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 They could of waited until the afternoon package to issue the watch. It's becoming very apparent that things are shifting NW, why raise everyone's awareness if there really ends up not being a threat.. Then cancel the watch. At this point there is a better likelihood of significant snow than significant ice. Yes, significant ice may occur (or even just rain) but at this point chips are on snow. Adjust as you move along, but better to get people aware already. Some people seem to think that if you issue a watch you have to issue a warning, which just isn't true. Outlook = 30% confidence Watch = 50% confidence Warning = 80% confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hate these graphics so much. No one cares about JUST YOUR CWA! Not like it asking for the moon to piece the full NDFD together to create an actually usable image. Sheesh. Then cancel the watch. At this point there is a better likelihood of significant snow than significant ice. Yes, significant ice may occur (or even just rain) but at this point chips are on snow. Adjust as you move along, but better to get people aware already. Some people seem to think that if you issue a watch you have to issue a warning, which just isn't true. Outlook = 30% confidence Watch = 50% confidence Warning = 80% confidence Read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Read more and post less. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 They could of waited until the afternoon package to issue the watch. It's becoming very apparent that things are shifting NW, why raise everyone's awareness if there really ends up not being a threat.. I still don't understand what you mean by 1" of inch. This is a high confidence, high probability event. An ice storm would cripple the infrastructure in this area as we saw in 2004. It was 3 days before urban areas had power restored, I don't know about rural. I would want to give people 48 hours to get prepared and make plans opposed to 24. Tomorrow is my normal grocery day, will be interested to see how it is. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I still don't understand what you mean by 1" of inch. This is a high confidence, high probability event. An ice storm would cripple the infrastructure in this area as we saw in 2004. It was 3 days before urban areas had power restored, I don't know about rural. I would want to give people 48 hours to get prepared and make plans opposed to 24. Tomorrow is my normal grocery day, will be interested to see how it is. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Meant to say 1" of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 THUS A SCENARIO OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MESS SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP FOR OUR AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. IN PLACES THAT STAY ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW...COULD EASILY SEE 10 OR MORE INCHES. SINCE ONLY LOOKING FOR ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE PERIOD THEN LIGHT PRECIP MOST OF TUE BEFORE HEAVY PRECIP RETURN TUE NIGHT INTO WED THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO BEST HANDLE HEADLINES. AFTER COORDINATION...WILL HOLE OFF ON HEADLINES AND LET DAY SHIFT TRY AND GET BETTER FEEL FOR PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUE TO DECIDE WHETHER A LONG WATCH IS BEST OR WHETHER IT MAY BE AN ADVISORY THEN WARNING TYPE SITUATION. This is part of the early morning Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> Meant to say 1" of snow..<br /> <br /><br /><br />Ah. Makes more sense. Been up since 8am. (Not model chasing either!) Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago to angola IN looks to be in the best spot for the highest totals. Better ratios and deformation band. Anyone think a transfer is occuring too quickly on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago to angola IN looks to be in the best spot for the highest totals. Better ratios and deformation band. Anyone think a transfer is occuring too quickly on the GFS? Looks like that might be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z GFS has a pretty tight gradient on QPF over a distance of 50 miles.. IND comes in with 2.22" LAF comes in with 1.46" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like that might be the case. Looking good around here but still hopeful that it will track no more NW. I am still thinking the low may get stronger than what the NAm and GFs are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hopefully this thing doesn't shift any further NW. EURO apparently has me flirting with the dry slot. Fortunately the 06z/18z runs have been somewhat different from the 00z/12z runs anyway, so maybe they're a hair too dry/too far NW. BTW, does anyone think LOT/DTX/GRR/IWX will issue a B-word watch after assessing today's model runs? They already included the possibility of B-word conditions in their WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hopefully this thing doesn't shift any further NW. EURO apparently has me flirting with the dry slot. Fortunately the 06z/18z runs have been somewhat different from the 00z/12z runs anyway, so maybe they're a hair too dry/too far NW. BTW, does anyone think LOT/DTX/GRR/IWX will issue a B-word watch after assessing today's model runs? They already included the possibility of B-word conditions in their WSW. Yea I was thinking that too. I think more LOT IWX and GRR because they will be in the higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Read more and post less. How thoughtful of you. Could you elaborate as to why my view point is so inferior to anyone else's here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The watch is warranted. For Central Indiana the confidence is high for an frz/ice/snow event and there is a lot of evidence to support the decision for WSW in their morning disc. Not to wish the event on someone else but I'm praying for a continued nw track to bring our temps above freezing, at least for a good period of time, to lessen ice accumulations. With it being 36-48 hours out now of the start of this thing, it will be a godsend if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haven't seen watches this early since Blizzard of '99....very rare to have a watch this far in advanced, but is well necessitated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Great coverage as always, brandon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GEFS members 72 hour QPF valid 12z Thu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I thought the 0z NAM was sweet until the 6z made it look like dog crap. nearly 2" are you kidding me!!!1!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Great coverage as always, brandon. I feel like a kid before Christmas Ice makes me extremely nervous though, especially after living through 8 days of no power/hell after the 05 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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