janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 316 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY ...SNOW EVENT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EXCEPTIONAL LOW CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE... OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION BELOW AVERAGE WITH DEEPLY OCCLUDED LOW STILL OFF CALIFORNIA SHOWING DISCREPANCIES ALL SOLUTIONS BOTH UPSTREAM INTO ALASKA AND ALSO WITH STALLED FRONT IN TEXAS. THE VERIFICATION AT 06Z SHOW MAJOR ISSUE THE DISCREPANCY OF MOISTURE FIELDS OVERDONE ON MOST SOLUTIONS WITH FORCING. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND ALSO GREATER INTEGRITY WITH FORCING FIELDS. NONETHELESS...HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 15 TO 25 TO 1 SUPPORT RAPID SNOW TOTALS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. TRENDED TOWARD A 70/30 BLEND OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF/UKMET MIX INTO DAY 4 AND THEN 50/50 DAY 4 ONWARD OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF. STILL EVIDENCE MAIN FORCING MAY TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH BY 100+ MILES ALSO A CONCERN FOR LATER SHIFTS. HEADLINE...ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL THE AREA VALID FROM 18Z TUESDAY UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 15 TO 25 TO 1. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF A DRY AND POWDERY SNOW WITH ISOLATED AMOUNT NEAR 3 POSSIBLE. THIS NOT ENOUGH OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO SUPPORT GOING WITH AN ADVISORY AS FORCING SUGGEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RATES TO BE LIGHT WITH DURATION THE PRIMARY REASON FOR ACCUMULATIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN OVERVIEW...LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS DUE TO DICHOTOMY OF FORCING WITH MOST SOLUTION MOISTURE FIELDS. ADD THE ADDITIONAL VARIABLE OF HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF 25+ TO 1 POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NW 1/2 OF AREA. THE GFS BY FAR APPEARS CLOSEST. OVER A DOZEN TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO 50 PERCENT OFF (LOWER) THAN THIS CURRENT PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW 1/2 SECTIONS OR MORE OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH ADDITIONAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES NW OF A DBQ-CID-OTM LINE. SE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED LINE DOWN TO A SQI-MUT-FFL LINE WENT WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES AND THEN SE OF THIS LAST PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE SUGGEST 8 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH RISK OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OF NEAR 15 INCHES ALONG AND SE OF A MEMPHIS TO MONMOUTH TO PRINCETON LINE. NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35+ MPH TO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS...MAINLY LATE PM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PM. OVER SE SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...THIS SHOULD BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACT DUE TO WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS NW EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS. WHEN MAIN LOW MOVES ONSHORE BY TONIGHT...THIS WILL AID IN PHASING ISSUES AND ULTIMATE LOW TRACK. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP ROADS POOR SUPPORTING WATCH UNTIL 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06Z RGEM also hitting wc mn with good waa snows...06Z run shows more qpf than the 0Z run...overdoing it probably but still nice to see it on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IND dropped a watch. 10"+ snow N of about SR 26. 1"+ ice south, including Muncie. Really amping up the talk of destructive ice and winds. "I rest my case." Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Point and click forecast for Eastpointe MI Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 15. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 21. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DVN goes WSW. Parts of MKE also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NICE!! 6z nam and 0z euro now both give me a half inch of moisture , which means 8-10" of snow and some strong winds as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro I think your Christmas tree lighting up is occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Point and click forecast for Eastpointe MI Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 15. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow. High near 21. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Kinda low? Look at the temp/snow profiles, with a temp of 18 and .41 qpf would not yield 4.1 inches of snowfall tho.. Snow Ratios would be a lot higher. Are they going like 10-1 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&pqpfhr=6&AheadHour=56&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=42.58000&textField2=-83.03050&site=dtx&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 PAH holding back on Winter Storm Watches at this time for the northern and western parts of our CWA. I know I won't be in a watch, but I'm wondering what's holding them back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kinda low? Look at the temp/snow profiles, with a temp of 18 and .41 qpf would not yield 4.1 inches of snowfall tho.. Snow Ratios would be a lot higher. Are they going like 10-1 http://forecast.weat...nit=0&dd=0&bw=0 Its early, they are going conservative right now, which is smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTW's 44" seasonal average includes an average of 1-2 storms per season of 6"+, and a 10"+ storm every 5 years or so. So when you have most models saying 2 feet of snow is a possibility, it is bordering epic. Snow depths right now in metro-Detroit are between 6 and 9 inches, so we also could be looking at epic snow depths come Thursday if it pans out. Looks like a major storm is a guarentee, and if the model qpf actually panned out....just WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM for ORD: QPF: 1.92" Snowfall: 33.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro I think your Christmas tree lighting up is occurring Are you observing during this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 336 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 DISCUSSION ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A POWERFULL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT A LARGE PART OF THE MIDWEST TUE/WED. THIS TO BRING MAINLY HEAVY SNOW TO CENTRAL IL AND ICE CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SE IL. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF MODELS STILL FURTHER NORTH THAN 00Z GFS MODEL WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACK CLOSER TO SE IL THOUGH SURPRISING BOTH NAM AND GFS PAINT SIMILAR VERY HEAVY SNOW BAND OF 10-20 INCHES OVER CENTRAL IL TUE/TUE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SE IL TUE AND WED WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. SNOW DIMINISHES DURING WED FROM SW TO NE BUT STRONG WINDS TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF IL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SE IL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SE OF THE IL RIVER WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS NW OF THE IL RIVER THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL DURING TODAY. SEASONABLE HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF I-72 TO THE UPPER 30S IN SE IL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS FROM I-74 NE TO THE MID 20S IN SE IL. STRONG STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MON AND DEVELOP 1004 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SW TX BY MON EVENING. THIS WILL ALREAD HAVE ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO IL BY MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MON WITH LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-72 AND A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET FROM I-72 SOUTH WITH EVEN JUST RAIN POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON SE OF I-70 WHERE HIGHS REACH THE MID 30S NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE. BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-72 MON AFTERNOON AND MON NIGHT WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF I-72 SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED MON AND MON NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NE FROM TEXAS INTO WESTERN TIP OF KY WED EVENING TO 998 MB...THEN TO SE OHIO BY SUNRISE WED AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WED. NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE INCREASED QPF TO 1.5-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 2-2.5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL IL TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TAPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INTENSITY BY TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT WITH SNOW NORTH OF I-72. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SOUTH OF I-72 CHANGING TO SNOW DURING TUE...EXPECT NOT IN SE IL UNTIL DURING TUE EVENING. SNOW DIMINISHES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY WED BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WED TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM I-72 NORTH TO 2-4 INCHES IN SE IL WHERE QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Are you observing during this storm? If it lasts past 4pm on Wednesday, then yes. If not then I will be observing from the comfort of my nice warm home. Beyond that, I will get to navigate the nightmare that will be the roads Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If it lasts past 4pm on Wednesday, then yes. If not then I will be observing from the comfort of my nice warm home. Looks like that will be the tail end. It would have been sweet to do some snincr reports. Looks like that drive will be interesting heading to the airport for you. Thankfully I never had to do a drive to KGFK during a blizzard. The stretch from GFK proper to the airport is 5 miles of flat nothing where the wind howls un-perturbed. It was always an issue during blizzards for us since it can become so whiteout driving is literally impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like that will be the tail end. It would have been sweet to do some snincr reports. Looks like that drive will be interesting heading to the airport for you. Thankfully I never had to do a drive to KGFK during a blizzard. The stretch from GFK proper to the airport is 5 miles of flat nothing where the wind howls un-perturbed. It was always an issue during blizzards for us since it can become so whiteout driving is literally impossible. Driving here wouldn't be bad if it wasn't for the other drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MPX has upgraded my area to a warning...up to 10" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Driving here wouldn't be bad if it wasn't for the other drivers. I hear that. Saddest story ever--a college student was driving on the highway just before it closed and broke down in whiteout blizzard conditions in between GFK and the airport. A trucker disregarded the "highway closed" signs and exited anyways. He rammed her car going full speed and killed her. That story stuck in my mind forever after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For southern counties in S/E Michigan.. DTX EXPECTING 8-12, -IND EXPECTING 12-18 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMNTS POSSIBLE UP TO 20". http://forecast.weat...ter+Storm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hear that. Saddest story ever--a college student was driving on the highway just before it closed and broke down in whiteout blizzard conditions in between GFK and the airport. A trucker disregarded the "highway closed" signs and exited anyways. He rammed her car going full speed and killed her. That story stuck in my mind forever after that. Super sad story. My enthusiasm for weather is always balanced by knowing how important and possibly catastrophic weather is in other peoples lives. Forecasting is something I don't take lightly. http://www.startribu...l/41086692.html http://madisonet.com...id=181985&rfi=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z GFS coming in a tad NW and with a stronger defo band compared to the 0z run through 66hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z GFS coming in a tad NW and with a stronger defo band compared to the 0z run through 66hrs. It is pretty much correcting itself from its bad 0Z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hear that. Saddest story ever--a college student was driving on the highway just before it closed and broke down in whiteout blizzard conditions in between GFK and the airport. A trucker disregarded the "highway closed" signs and exited anyways. He rammed her car going full speed and killed her. That story stuck in my mind forever after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTX's AFD is a book today BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-IMPACT HEAVY SNOWSTORM TO HIT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AND SNOW AMOUNT COORDINATION WITH HPC...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE DECISION TO CARRY THE WATCH ONLY THAT FAR NORTH WAS TO ALLOW SOME ROOM FOR TRACK ADJUSTMENT SINCE IT IS STILL VERY EARLY. THIS IS THE AREA WE ARE THE MOST CONFIDENT IN SEEING HEAVY SNOW DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET BUT COOL TONIGHT. THE HIGH MAY END UP DISRUPTING NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW INTO THE THUMB AS IT SINKS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT TO IMPACT THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK POPS SLIGHTLY...AND KEPT ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST MINS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM...OTHER THAN TO FORM A STRONGER CONSENSUS. AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS THE STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPPING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA PHASE. ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH (REMNANTS OF THE CALIFORNIA LOW) IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW TRACK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PER GFS/EURO/NAM/UKMET. GEM IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...AND IS A STRONG OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES. PRECEDING THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE WINTER STORM...700-850MB FGEN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THERMAL/WIND CONVERGENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND MID LEVEL WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE TO OUR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BECOME ESPECIALLY TIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT WHEN GFS/NAM/EURO SHOW A SEASONABLY STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING UP INTO OHIO. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOK TO COMBINE WITH FORCING FROM COUPLED UPPER JET TO PROVIDE A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT WITH HOW MUCH QPF AND SNOW THEY GENERATE...BUT WITH LIFT LOOKING TO BE CENTERED UP HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK WE WILL ONLY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT ON TUESDAY AS STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUBSIDE...WITH JUST LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK AS IF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE PLACED WITHIN A STRONG AREA OF DEFORMATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN BETWEEN 850-700MB LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THIS LAYER TO EVEN EXPAND DOWN TO 925 MB. THE ADDITION OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND VERY STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AT LEAST UP THROUGH THE I-69 CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (POSSIBLY WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AS WE LOSE JET SUPPORT)...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AT FIRST GLANCE...PW VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT AT 0.5 INCHES WOULD SUGGEST MODEL QPF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF ONE INCH ARE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...FURTHER ANALYSIS USING CROSS-SECTIONS AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWS MOISTURE MAY BE CENTERED IN AN AREA OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHERE IT WILL REACH ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. GFS/NAM SHOW THE HIGHEST VALUES OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY (NOW UP TO 4 G/KG) CENTERED WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE STRONG FGEN LAYER TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WITHIN AND JUST BELOW STEEPEST LAPSE RATES...AND ALSO LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS HIGH OF A DEGREE OF MOISTURE QUALITY...WENT WITH A GENERAL 8 TO 12 INCH ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS CONSERVATIVE GIVEN MODEL OUTPUT AND HPC FORECAST WHICH HAVE TOTALS BETWEEN 18-24 INCHES. NORMALLY NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...A STRONG CORE OF NORTHEAST WINDS (AS HIGH AS 50-60 KNOTS) FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOT 100 PERCENT CONFIDENT WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 35 MPH MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DRAG. IF WINDY CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...IT WILL CREATE ADDITION PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. THIS STORM CERTAINLY BEARS VERY CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND ADJUSTMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GRR's AFD CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WINTER STORM DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...NAMELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR MUSKEGON...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT COUNTIES SOUTHWARD FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. IT MUST BE CONVEYED THAT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AT THIS POINT AS A VERY COMPLEX 500MB PATTERN IS YET TO EVOLVE. THE MAIN PLAYERS ARE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB PATTERN...THE AMOUNT OF PHASING THAT ACTUALLY TAKES PLACE...AND THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM THAT IS EJECTED OUT OF THE EVOLVING WESTERN TROUGH IS PARAMOUNT TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT SAID...WE ARE AT A POINT WHERE CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN TO THE LEVEL WHERE WE FEEL A WATCH IS WARRANTED PER COORDINATION WITH DTX AND IWX. ALSO FACTORING IN...IS THE FACT THAT THIS APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH END EVENT...BOTH IN TERMS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY WIND. THE GFS...EUROPEAN AND NAM ALL BRING A LOW OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING...PUSHING IT INTO OHIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE EUROPEAN IS THE FURTHEST NORTH TRACKING THE LOW FROM SOUTHERN IL TO JUST SOUTH OF CLEVELAND. THE 850MB AND 700MB LOWS TRACK CLOSER TO OUR AREA...PLACING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MOST UNDER THE GUN. A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...CLOSED LOW AT 500MB...AND THE ONE/TWO PUNCH FROM WAA SNOW FOLLOWED BY TROWAL SNOW ALL LEAD TO POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRY SLOT MISSES US TO THE SOUTH WHICH YIELDS A LONG DURATION HEAVY SNOW EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO GRAND RAPIDS TO ST. JOHNS LINE COULD BE LOOKING AT...OR IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL BECOME MORE OF A TOPIC OF DISCUSSION ONCE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE ZEROED IN ON IS THE WIND. THE LOW WILL BE OF DECENT DEPTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 997MB/S. COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SAGGING INTO THE PLAINS NEAR 1050MB A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BLOWING SNOW LOOKS TO BE A LIKELIHOOD WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE WESTERN UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION CLOSELY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH A SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTX's AFD is a book today "NORMALLY NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY" This is what I like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 "NORMALLY NOT COMFORTABLE WITH A WATCH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND COORDINATION WITH HPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE FELT THIS EVENT WAS WORTHY" This is what I like to see. Yes, coordinating with other offices is great move here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM gives IND 1.9" of FZRA.. and 1" of snow. IND making a very bad, call on already issuing WSW this far out I think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MPX has upgraded my area to a warning...up to 10" possible. Well forget what I said--the Chanhassen NWS is going full blown warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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