The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 are you kidding? nam gives KSTL 15 inches of snow and sleet. my back yard about the same. 1.60 inches of QPF. about .3-.5 ice, KILLER. 8 inches of snow, 5-6 inches of sleet on top of it...sleet first. this will stick around a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Was a little warmer down here due to the NW shift. Maybe some ice but it looks like a lot of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has a crippling ice storm guys...CRIPPLING. inches of ice in many places! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has a crippling ice storm guys...CRIPPLING. inches of ice in many places! Not here in South Central Indiana. Just plain old rain...although IND is about to issue winter storm watch for our CWA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has a crippling ice storm guys...CRIPPLING. inches of ice in many places! So jealous of you Friv! But you are one of those who has been waiting for one of these for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thunder you have the 78 hr map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr78 Temps look to fall significantly, some nice ratios involved.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You guys are not out of it yet. I think surface temps will be colder then progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 alot better of a run for here...I could look at these images all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thunder you have the 78 hr map? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yep .75 to 1 inch in 6 hours , chicago may approach 2inches on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we should start to see the WSW's issued for ORD, the SE half of DVN's area, perhaps far SE part of DSM's area, most all of lincolns area, and probably the SE half or so of MKE's area pretty soon... within the next hour or so. Its probably time to start ramping up public awareness due to potential of near blizzard/blizzard conditions, potential historic snow storm, and to get the streets and sanitations departments ready to go, and get people to the grocery stores to stock up, as well as making the major employers in the area aware of this. This is going to shut down quite a few places for a few days I have a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 look at how tight the temp gradient is at 850mb at 72hr over nw IN...WOW. that is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we should start to see the WSW's issued for ORD, the SE half of DVN's area, perhaps far SE part of DSM's area, most all of lincolns area, and probably the SE half or so of MKE's area pretty soon... within the next hour or so. Its probably time to start ramping up public awareness due to potential of near blizzard/blizzard conditions, potential historic snow storm, and to get the streets and sanitations departments ready to go, and get people to the grocery stores to stock up, as well as making the major employers in the area aware of this. This is going to shut down quite a few places for a few days I have a feeling. Yeah I am expecting GRR/DTX/IWX to follow suit probably this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 look at how tight the temp gradient is at 850mb at 72hr over nw IN...WOW. that is insane. wow...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That run would be absolutely epic....24" would seem like a real possibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 and we are not even done at that point, so maybe 4"qpf lol 6z posted on previous page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM had some nice, nice difluence showing up on the thickness charts from NE Missouri right up thru Northern Indiana and extreme Southern Michigan and that will aid nicely too into the lifting parameters and make for efficient precipitation production. Very, very dynamic system and while early on I was sort of poo pooing the QPF outputs, I'm becoming a believer very quickly... usually always seems models over ramp these things QPF wise and they end up underperforming for a lot of us, but I think this will very likely be the exception to that. There are to many processes at work that have been discuss at great length to lower QPF totals. Just that the heaviest QPF band may wobble around from run to run until the models resolve everything to a T, and that may take right up until the storm is getting ready to go BAM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That run would be absolutely epic....24" would seem like a real possibility here. I was talking with a co-worker earlier, and I said as of right now its about a 95% chance of 6-10" up here, I'm starting to feel that percentile would work well for 10-15" instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New ZFPs out for IWX, they went with a watch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z posted on previous page. My bad...I'm half asleep LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TUESDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW LIKELYIN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THEDAY. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OFMEASURABLE SNOW 70 PERCENT. WIND CHILLS 1 BELOW TO 9 ABOVE ZERO. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN...SLEET ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVYAT TIMES. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW 90 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...SNOW...CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THEMORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOWTHROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. MODERATE SNOWACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF MEASURABLESNOW 80 PERCENT. IWX has gone ahead and issued Winter Storm Watches for the counties in northwest Ohio west of Toledo and Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Of course as I made that last post I see the NAM total QPF output for this area really dropped.... so this might be the start in this area of cutting back the amounts. Only about 0.50" total QPF around here on the map prev. poster put up. I am really tired too. This has been a long day of looking over all the info. I've got all these notes scribbled down of what I was seeing from each of the runs and qpf and ratio guesses. Then sending out the personalized forecasts to the folks I do that for. What a day. I think I need to go have me a jack and coke and wind it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Of course as I made that last post I see the NAM total QPF output for this area really dropped.... so this might be the start in this area of cutting back the amounts. Only about 0.50" total QPF around here on the map prev. poster put up. I am really tired too. This has been a long day of looking over all the info. I've got all these notes scribbled down of what I was seeing from each of the runs and qpf and ratio guesses. Then sending out the personalized forecasts to the folks I do that for. What a day. I think I need to go have me a jack and coke and wind it down. That was the 0z. 6z has close to 1.25" for DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=iwx&product=AFD&issuedby=iwx The discussion speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DTX also with a watch for Tuesday night, from I-69 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Of course as I made that last post I see the NAM total QPF output for this area really dropped.... so this might be the start in this area of cutting back the amounts. Only about 0.50" total QPF around here on the map prev. poster put up. I am really tired too. ??? that was a 6 hior precip map over 1 inch for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IWX AFD is great .LONG TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE PHASING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER THE NW CONUS. A DEEP/WRAPPED UP CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS UNDERGOING DEEPENING AS LL CAA UNDERCUTS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE PER THE ADVECTING IMPULSE OVER SOUTHERN BC. AN INTENSE 100+ KNOT UPPER JET IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER WAVE DIGGING THROUGH CUTTING UPPER FLOW. MEANWHILE A RATHER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID CONUS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PROVIDE THE PATHWAY FOR THE EJECTING DISTURBANCE BY EARLY THIS WEEK...SUPPORTING A STORM TRACK THAT WILL HIGHLY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP. NEARLY EVERY SOURCE OF GUIDANCE OFFERS A SIMILAR SOLUTION...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WITH VERY INTENSE MOMENTUM FIELDS SUPPORTING MASSIVE HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT AND ADVECTION FIELDS. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR HISTORICAL STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...WITH THE FA RESIDING IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND WIND. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIRD...WITH SOME ICING POSSIBLE. HAVE UTILIZED A HEAVY BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS...WITH A BLEND TO CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS VARIANCE ATTM...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE. TUE-WED...RAPID HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ROBUST LL ADVECTION FIELDS RESPONDING TO AN ADJUSTING MOMENTUM FIELD. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GOMEX ORIGIN WILL ADVECT HIGH MIXING RATIO AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION BEING AIDED BY A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE EVIDENT AT H3. THIS TYPE OF UPPER JET ORIENTATION WILL SUPPORT A VERY INTENSE LLJ RESPONSE WITH 60-80 KNOT FLOW EXPECTED. MIXING RATIOS OF OVER 6 G/KG WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND FEED INTO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. SFC LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A VERY INTENSE LL DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS ACROSS THE FA...WITH POTENT SLANTWISE FLOW EXPECTED...GIVEN ASSUMED SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY. 285-280K ISENTROPIC CHARTS PROG 50-60 KNOT CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW IN A DEEP SATURATED LAYER...A STRONG CORRELATION TO INTENSE UVM OVER A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. IMPRESSIVE LIFT CENTERED IN THE DGZ WITH THE NAM INDICATING NEARLY 40 MICRO/SEC IN THE -12 TO -19C LAYER...WOULD SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAYER OVER AN INTENSE LL ADVECTION REGIME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS RESIDING IN THE FA....LIKELY THE NW HALF. THE H7 LOW TRACKS SW-NE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE FA...WITH -5 TO -10C AT H7 AND THE SNOW SOURCE REGION K INDEX NUMBERS OF OVER 10...ALL IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING DEEP LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER PROGGED Q-VECTOR NUMBERS. GIVEN CONSENSUS QPF NUMBERS OF 1 TO 1.75 INCHES...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS WOULD BE EXPECTED EVEN WITH AT LOW SNOW RATIOS OF 10:1 TO 14:1 AS INDICATED IN BUFR MAX T PROFILES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW WITH AMOUNTS OF OVER 20 INCHES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. VERY INTENSE EXPECTED PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE RAPID ADJUSTING HEIGHT FIELD WOULD BE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG LL WINDS. CURRENT CONSENSUS NUMBERS PROG SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS LIKELY. THIS IS VERY WORRISOME AS WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WOULD BE EXPECTED...SUPPORTING VERY HIGH SNOW DRIFTS...POSSIBLY OVER SEVERAL FEET IN SOME AREAS. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WOULD BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH ROAD CLOSURES LIKELY IF WIDESPREAD DRIFTING OCCURS. THE OTHER MAJOR IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ZR AND IP IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD GIVEN WARM NOSE PROCESSES. THE NAM IS THE WARMEST OF ALL MODELS WITH 2-3C PROGGED AT THE WARM NOSE IN THE SE. A PERIOD OF ZR AND IP WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ICING. DO EXPECT MODEL WAVE TRACK ADJUSTMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO SHIFT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...A POTENT SW CONUS EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HEIGHT PATTERN. TYPICALLY...MODELS FORECAST THE STORM TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH AND ADJUST WELL WEST UP TO THE EVENT...BUT THE CAVEAT TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENT ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING SOUTH...WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR A SOUTHERN BIAS TO THE WEST ADJUSTED STORM TRACK...IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST MODEL PROGS. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR A MAJOR STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION/THE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE/AND THE IMPACT INVOLVED...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. NW AREAS MAY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW GIVEN SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT MAJOR AXIS SNOW BAND. INCREASING DELTA T/S WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND RAISED INVERSION HEIGHTS WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR A SHIFTING LAKE BAND WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT OVER THE NW ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DVN goes WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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