brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 have I asked you where your picture was taken and when? amazing sup. June 16, 2008, between Lawton and Altus... random OFB day with weak sauce upper flow... don't think anyone could've seen that structure coming. More details here: http://www.skyinmotion.com/chase/chase.php?id=59 Back OT, this is still a nailbiter for the I-35 corridor. We really need this thing to deepen sooner and/or track more northward after it gets into AR. I'm not even that worried at this point because last year (esp 12/24 and 01/29) proved just about anything can happen in this type of pattern, even within the 24-hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gotta run to bed..catch you guys tomorrow. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 June 16, 2008, between Lawton and Altus... random OFB day with weak sauce upper flow... don't think anyone could've seen that structure coming. More details here: http://www.skyinmoti...chase.php?id=59 Back OT, this is still a nailbiter for the I-35 corridor. We really need this thing to deepen sooner and/or track more northward after it gets into AR. I'm not even that worried at this point because last year (esp 12/24 and 01/29) proved just about anything can happen in this type of pattern, even within the 24-hour timeframe. Your pics are nice! That Rockies pic--the Flatirons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gotta run to bed..catch you guys tomorrow. Good luck Wait dude--we want your NAM analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gotta run to bed..catch you guys tomorrow. Good luck Adios man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New HPC maps are out... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM might head a bit farther NW based on looking at HR 45. LOW is a bit stronger and a tad north so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 June 16, 2008, between Lawton and Altus... random OFB day with weak sauce upper flow... don't think anyone could've seen that structure coming. More details here: http://www.skyinmoti...chase.php?id=59 Back OT, this is still a nailbiter for the I-35 corridor. We really need this thing to deepen sooner and/or track more northward after it gets into AR. I'm not even that worried at this point because last year (esp 12/24 and 01/29) proved just about anything can happen in this type of pattern, even within the 24-hour timeframe. very nice! we were on alot of the same storms this past year. will be looking through your chase logs awaiting new model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM is going to come in a bit farther NW based on how it looks through 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro, any decent winds coming our way with this system?...hoping for some good fluff & winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Temps starting to crash at 42hr. cold profile in the SPG to STL area deepening to sleet profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WAA snows.. and then BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HR 51 has a sub 1004 low in south-central Texas. 0z HR 57 NAM had a 1004 low a bit farther south. Nice WAA snows from C. IA to S. WI, N. IL, S. MI and IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Baro, any decent winds coming our way with this system?...hoping for some good fluff & winds. Nothing really special. Sustained 15 and G to 25 maybe 30--but not much to mix down. In your area though--with the open fields and fluffy snow--it will likely blow around a bit--but nothing extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is the Accuweather forecast for here in Toledo. Monday Mostly cloudy. High 21. ENE 8 mph gusting to 11. Monday night Cold with 1-3 inches of snow. Low 13. NE 8 mph gusting to 11. Tuesday Cloudy, breezy and cold with a little snow, accumulating up to an additional inch. High 22. NE 14 mph gusting to 29. Tuesday night 1-2 feet of heavy snow; windy. Low 16. NNE 20 mph gusting to 29. Wednesday Cloudy and windy with a chance for snow. High 23. N at 18 mph gusting to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like mama nature is giving me a nice birthday present on tuesday. I'm so hoping I can pull 10+ out of this, still not totally convinced we won't see the QPF end up getting trimmed back but all models now printing out some good totals. Someone earlier mentioned putting out maps with totals and what not. I'd really hold off on that until Sun Night or Mon Morning. A lot can change in terms of fine details but i think its safe to say somewhere generally from Central Mo up to Northern In and Southeast Mi/NW Ohio/Southern Canada should be doing some serious digging out from say 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nothing really special. Sustained 15 and G to 25 maybe 30--but not much to mix down. In your area though--with the open fields and fluffy snow--it will likely blow around a bit--but nothing extreme. i'll take it...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Has to be one of the longest AFD's from Indy i've ever seen. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 243 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...BUT THEN FOCUS WILL CHANGE TO THE MAJOR STORM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE COLD NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW GENERALLY A DRY COLUMN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS AGAIN EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGHS COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS AND LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MAVMOS. THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL THEN BEGIN TO EFFECT THE AREA STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A PRECURSOR TO THE MAJOR WAVE THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 4 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE REST OF CENTRAL INDIANA REVEALS A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN TYPE SOUNDING. THUS WILL RAISE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT LEAN WARMER THAN MAVMOS ON LOWS GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT AND MORE POWERFUL PART OF THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...LAF...KOKOMO...WILL MAINLY BE SEE SNOW AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THEIR PROFILES TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH...IND...HUF...MIE...BMG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING. MANY FORCING MECHANISMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST...UPPER JET SHOWS COUPLING. 300MB HEIGHTS SHOW RIGHT REAR REGION ACROSS WISCONSIN AND AN APPROACHING LEFT ENTRANCE ACROSS MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG LIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS...POISED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. SECOND...VERY STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION SEEN AT 500MB AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIRD...POTENTIAL VORTICITY ALSO SHOWS STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION DOWN TO NEARLY 450-500MB DEPENDING UPON YOUR MODEL CHOICE. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG FORCING. THIRD...VERY STRONG Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS INDIANA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOURTH...THE 700MB CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE PATH OF A 700 MB CLOSED LOW. FIFTH...THE GFS 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS VERY STRONG UPGLIDE ESTABLISHING ITSELF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ALONG THIS SURFACE AS MIXING RATIOS REACH 5 TO 6 G/KG. SIXTH...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH STRONG LIFT. SEVENTH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH INDIANA FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THIS IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY STRONG...LOW LEVEL JET LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT 70-80 KNTS ACROSS KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA. THIS KIND OF WARM AND MOIST TRANSPORT CERTAINLY WILL OVERRUN COLDER AIR...EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S...AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THIS...NAM POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACE AT 650MB ALSO SUGGEST TROWAL DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...BUFKIT SHOWS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH THAT ICE WILL RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. I REST MY CASE. GIVEN THIS WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS TIME FRAME...STARTING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. GIVEN WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT ON THIS SYSTEM...PRECISE TRACKING OF THE STORM IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SOME AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW AND OTHERS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN OR ICE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND ICE STORM DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITION...HEAVY SNOW AND EVEN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. VERY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND A QUICK THAW IS NOT EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM is going to come in a bit farther NW based on how it looks through 48hrs. We may end up close to what would have been that amazing 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM at 54 hours. And on that SEMI-random and moment I guess I'll go to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Goodness sakes--this NAM run is amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 57HR heavy sleet is starting in STL with heavy snow just north and west. Temps are crashing, mid 20s surface. warm layer almost eroded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 JoMo gets crushed at hr 60. This thing is gonna explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just analyzing this NAM run verbatim--at 63 it is absolutely insane. The defo band on this run will be absolutely ridic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Goodness sakes--this NAM run is amped. Its looking that way..wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just analyzing this NAM run verbatim--at 63 it is absolutely insane. The defo band on this run will be absolutely ridic. 4" QPF here we come J/k I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM continues its trend of weaker surface low but stronger gradient and overall more intense. Much farther NW on the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 JoMo gets crushed at hr 60. This thing is gonna explode. 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run is insane--massive blizzard for the same parts as 0Z NAM--but even more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SLP in the same spot as the 0z ECMWF by 72hrs. Actually, up to that point the track is basically the same as the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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