The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we really need to watch the dynamical cooling with this. I am not sure how far south that can go..but we have seen with this kind of moisture influx and lift snow lines plow south quite a bit more then models progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z Euro ensembles through 60 hours are a bit more amplified than the 12z ensembles at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 66 hours 1004mb surface low over Eastern AR...again more amplified and a bit further north than the 12z Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah...at 72 hours they are a good bit northwest of the 12z ensembles which is pretty big. Surface low is about 1000mb and centered over Western KY/TN. STL is getting hammered at that hour and the snow is into Southeast Iowa and North-Central Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 66 hours 1004mb surface low over Eastern AR...again more amplified and a bit further north than the 12z Ensembles. That is just perfect. thanks for the updates, please post qpf if you get it, thanks!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah...at 72 hours they are a good bit northwest of the 12z ensembles which is pretty big. Surface low is about 1000mb and centered over Western KY/TN. STL is getting hammered at that hour and the snow is into Southeast Iowa and North-Central Illinois How are they comparing to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 IND leaning mostly snow in the northwest and talking up the ice potential elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1000mb surface low over Northern KY at 78 hours. Still snowing in STL..all the way back to Northeast MO/Southeast IA..with the good QPF as far north as Chicago. Northwest IN also into the good snows at that hour..as well as Southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How are they comparing to the op? They are definitely a tick southeast of the OP at 78 hours...but more amplified than the 12z mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is just perfect. thanks for the updates, please post qpf if you get it, thanks!!!!! Don't get total QPF...but it doesn't really look all that far off from the 03z SREF mean just broad-brushing the area and adding the QPF for each panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 84 hours the surface low is over Southeast OH. CCB precipitation signal stretches back to Chicago..through MI/Northern IN and NW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 They are definitely a tick southeast of the OP at 78 hours...but more amplified than the 12z mean. I bet they have 15-20 inches from STL to LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I bet they have 15-20 inches from STL to LAF They are never too bullish on the QPF as they are a 51 member ensemble if I remember correctly. You just have to try and use them for the forecast track in comparison to the OP and the earlier ensemble run. But they are definitely signaling some good QPF in the cold sector. Guessing amounts is a crap shoot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hate to be an IMBYer, but... rough storm total QPF for OKC and TUL? Hard to tell. The mean is so smoothed....check your PM's in about two minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM out to 12hr. I guess I will be staying up for this run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hate to be an IMBYer, but... rough storm total QPF for OKC and TUL? have I asked you where your picture was taken and when? amazing sup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM out to 12hr. I guess I will be staying up for this run lol. Might as well stay up for the 06z GFS then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM generally looks the same through 21 hours in the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM out to 12hr. I guess I will be staying up for this run lol. if you don't have stormvista, use this site for the nam. Better maps imho and they are faster than ncep and give 3hr increments with uptodate soundings for your location that you click on. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=06&fhour=21¶meter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Might as well stay up for the 06z GFS then too RUC has this now..you know tomorow it will be modeling the H5 vorts trek in the SW and far S it Digs.. I might have to take off work Monday and Tuesday as sick days to track this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 that supercell you and I caught at night on 6/21 was insane, best lightning display I saw all year. looked like it had some good structure, If only it was during the day. Besides what occured with the '08 derecho, that was likely the 2nd best lightning display I have seen. It did have decent structure, but like you said too bad it wasn't daytime. Would have helped if we didn't get lost in the middle of nowhere for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if you don't have stormvista, use this site for the nam. Better maps imho and they are faster than ncep and give 3hr increments with uptodate soundings for your location that you click on. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false I'm used to NCEP and COD and wouldn't change now due to superstition lol thanks though, I tend to only use twisterdata in spring/summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm used to NCEP and COD and wouldn't change now due to superstition lol You sound just like me...I listened to the same song before the 00z Euro for 5 nights straight prior to Dec 26. It seriously worked (in my mind, at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Besides what occured with the '08 derecho, that was likely the 2nd best lightning display I have seen. It did have decent structure, but like you said too bad it wasn't daytime. Would have helped if we didn't get lost in the middle of nowhere for a bit. I knew that was something when we left McDonald's, could see the nice base off to the northwest at sunset and wow did that thing get going fast. I'm sure we were alittle help to Gino that night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS has -20 to -30F in central MO after this? is that real? wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You sound just like me...I listened to the same song before the 00z Euro for 5 nights straight prior to Dec 26. It seriously worked (in my mind, at least). I'm very superstitious...very. And not just for weather. On chase days, I will try to wear the same shirt and eat at the same fast food places, order the same thing as I have before on good days. a bag of peanut M&M's always at a gas station. and thats just the beginning..lol sports is another story haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM looks the same at 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Maybe a tick more phased/further south with the northern stream energy through 36 hours. Nothing too dramatically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM looks the same at 24hr. If you like NCEP--go here. At 33 hours. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller Twisterdata at 33 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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