earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yes sir look at my picture.... and...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28Kjo5FJv34 That video is awesome. I've been itching to chase for a few years now--I really have to try and get out there this Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850mb dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850mb dews. That moist low level theta-e regime in the warm sector is going to get the beast going fast. Mostly why I am leaning towards the amped non-hydro models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That video is awesome. I've been itching to chase for a few years now--I really have to try and get out there this Spring. seat is open if you make it out here, I know Chi storm and I would take you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That moist low level theta-e regime in the warm sector is going to get the beast going fast. Mostly why I am leaning towards the amped non-hydro models. Oh yeah--this to. One of the most insane jet couplings I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chi storm and I would take you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If anyone out there can use Wikipedia, go ahead and start a page... Call it SuperBomb I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That moist low level theta-e regime in the warm sector is going to get the beast going fast. Mostly why I am leaning towards the amped non-hydro models. The jet couplet image you posted earlier today was mouth watering, too. Edit: you just posted it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 03Z SREF slp 60 & 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6/5/10 was hands down the biggest brainfart of my chasing "career". Several things fell through earlier in the day that didn't allow us to chase until much later in the day. By the time it all became sorted out the event was underway and we basically missed the boat. Looking back there were ways I could have got out of the prior obligations that would have allowed us to hit the road in a timely fashion. Sucks that a great outbreak happened so close to home and we didn't see any of it lol. Ahhhh, but to digress...can't wait to see those Euro ensembles. I met up with T-snow in Muscatine, but we ended up splitting up. He ended up getting in prime position for the tor's. I was on the cell with the first wall cloud near Roseville before I ended up getting post on farm roads(no GPS FTL). Then I ended up falling farther behind when tring to find Route 67(once again no GPS FTL). I finally found Route 30 and then jumped on I-74 to Peoria. I was able to see the Elmwood tornado to my south, but not nearly the shot tsnow had as it went through the town. The wall cloud actually passed overhead while I was on I-74 coming into Peoria. It's a good thing it lifted because that would have went right through the heart of downtown. I then ended up catching a second tornado on the NE side of town. To go back to the earlier portion of the chase, that following Tuesday on the way back from a chase(bust) I took the same route home. I ended up figuring out I passed that Route 67 I needed to turn on. Oh well...lesson learned, never forget your GPS. I also ended up stopping to see the Elmwood damage too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 03Z SREF slp 60 & 72 Awesome shots..where do you get them so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is a possible once a lifetime storm for lifetimers in the STL area. Just damn wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Awesome shots..where do you get them so early? i make those with gempak....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i make those with gempak....thanks Yeah I just realized that's what it looked like. Good stuff man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 03z SREF bumped the precipitation shield about 100 miles to the northwest compared to the 21z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 seat is open if you make it out here, I know Chi storm and I would take you out. Fine with me. I'm going to get BowMe out on a chase this season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro ensembles are running, too...but only through 24 hours thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Awesome to have you posting with us Earthlight. You're a great poster. Seems like the ETA's have been way weaker/southeast while ARW/NNM have been much stronger and farther northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 03z SREF bumped the precipitation shield about 100 miles to the northwest compared to the 21z suite Another STL QPF Bulls-eye. I think STL, ORD, and LAF will take the cake in QPF...all 1.5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 can you be more specific? how much further northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Fine with me. I'm going to get BowMe out on a chase this season too. Make sure you have a cooler full of Steel Reserve. That bump NW on the new SREF seems pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There's also a heavy spread to the northwest of the mean...exciting for those in Chicago and definitely an attempt to hedge towards the more northwest Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I met up with T-snow in Muscatine, but we ended up splitting up. He ended up getting in prime position for the tor's. I was on the cell with the first wall cloud near Roseville before I ended up getting post on farm roads(no GPS FTL). Then I ended up falling farther behind when tring to find a county road(once again no GPS FTL). I finally found Route 30 and then jumped on I-74 to Peoria. I was able to see the Elmwood tornado to my south, but not nearly the shot tsnow had as it went through the town. The wall cloud actually passed overhead while I was on I-74 coming into Peoria. It's a good thing it lifted because that would have went right through the heart of downtown. I then ended up catching a second tornado on the NE side of town. To go back to the earlier portion of the chase, that following Tuesday on the way back from a chase(bust) I took the same route home. I ended up figuring out I passed that county road(144?) I needed to turn on. Oh well...lesson learned, never forget your GPS. I also ended up stopping to see the Elmwood damage too. 2nd prime position for tor's lol Walker Ashley and trip 3 with CoD was in the #1 spot, just south of the tornadoes while we were looking ESE and east at them the whole time. http://thetae.blogspot.com/2010/06/652010-west-central-il-supercell-and.html we had a slow up about 15 mins before the first tor dropped. Gilbert and Victor lost their GPS software so we had to take over the lead and had to fly through a small town and shoot east. Also didn't take the south option that CoD took. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 can you be more specific? how much further northwest It's further northwest, but not further "west" by definition. It's also a bit faster so it can be deceiving if you're looking at the exact QPF over the past 24 hours for Omaha. 24 hour QPF 72 hours 03z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20110130/03/sref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif 24 hour QPF 78 hours 21z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/sref/20110129/21/sref_namer_078_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does south of IND have any chance of staying all snow? We've seen this before down here even with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 03z SREF bumped the precipitation shield about 100 miles to the northwest compared to the 21z suite 100 miles is quite the shift at this stage. already can't wait for the 12z runs. The addiction at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Awesome to have you posting with us Earthlight. You're a great poster. Seems like the ETA's have been way weaker/southeast while ARW/NNM have been much stronger and farther northwest. Thanks bud, anytime. The ETA members were skewing the mean terribly at 21z (but I guess that's what the mean is designed for). They were hundreds of miles east and faster than the NMM/ARW/RSM members. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSNC_21z/f81.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Fine with me. I'm going to get BowMe out on a chase this season too. One of the southwest WI chases through the hills lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 100 miles is quite the shift at this stage. already can't wait for the 12z runs. The addiction at its finest. Agreed. Don't hold me to the exact number of miles, but eyeballing it I immediately noticed that it was pretty dramatically futher north/northwest with the 0.5-1.0" QPF lines at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Make sure you have a cooler full of Steel Reserve. That bump NW on the new SREF seems pretty significant. Why not just drink varnish Honestly if I am going to drink i'll spend a little bit of cash to get something that doesn't taste like gasoline /ot Everyone ready for the NAM pumping out 4" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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