ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hour 75, Freezing line on top of NYC. Major ice storm for ABE area north and west, and just north of NYC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110130/12/nam_namer_075_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Two important differences this run. The High is stronger to our North and the low cuts further west in the mid-west which increases chances for re-development to the NJ Coast. The second of those things not being nearly good as the first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 above 32 in the cities at hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1030 mb High over Quebec on this run at 75 hrs vs. 1027mb last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 .25" of snow and then .25" of ice for NYC thru 75. Parts of PA are now .50" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1028mb High over Quebec this run at 78 hrs. vs. 1024mb last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 .25" of snow and then .25" of ice for NYC thru 75. Parts of PA are now .50" of ice. Probably less snow..... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif That is not verbatim snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1030 mb High over Quebec on this run at 75 hrs vs. 1027mb last run. Storm over midwest can only get so far before running into the big high - storm has to redevelop further east - thing to watch in future runs is colder an colder solutions with that high holding in southeast canada forcing the storm to possibly redevelop further south then currently progged especially if the cold air damming holds longer then expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Blizzard of April 6, 1982 Dont forget the wet 6+ inch Easter storm. Forget the year right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Crippling ice storm for ABE north and north of NYC thru 78. Nearly .75" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Probably less snow..... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif That is not verbatim snow for NYC Yeah. About .15"-.20" of snow and then ice until hour 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Storm over midwest can only get so far before running into the big high - storm has to redevelop further east - thing to watch in future runs is colder an colder solutions with that high holding in southeast canada forcing the storm to possibly redevelop further south then currently progged You would be surprised how far a strong amplified low can go. It has happened before and it will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NW NJ remained below freezing at the surface the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has redevelopment now with the low forming over NYC moving to se of the cape move that 75 miles east and nyc stays all ice and areas to the north switch back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How much snow before the change to ice? Besides that, is it more sleet here? Been hearing reports that it's more sleet here while KABE gets more ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, surface freezing line barely gets to HPN, this is going to a close one... Important thing is that the storm really gets sheared out by the PV before it can do any serious damage in terms of WAA...it completely destroyed by the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Total storm qpf of 1.50+ for NYC and NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has redevelopment now with the low forming over NYC moving to se of the cape move that 75 miles east and nyc stays all ice and areas to the north switch back to snow. Interesting in that this isnt a relaible time frame for NAM - but I am not sure there is ever a reliable time frame for NAM this year. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Total storm qpf of 1.50+ for NYC and NE NJ. Only about .1 to .2" of that at best as snow. Then a marginal ice storm with the worst being further north and west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 PHL Soundings from 12Z NAM: Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1018.1 1020.5 1022.5 1026.9 1029.1 1031.2 1030.0 1028.5 1026.7 1023.2 1021.7 Mean SLP (mb): 1018.8 1021.4 1023.3 1027.8 1030.0 1032.2 1031.0 1029.4 1027.5 1024.2 1022.6 2m agl Tmp (F): 22.3 33.5 28.5 21.6 18.0 27.4 26.1 26.9 28.3 32.0 30.7 2m agl Dewpt(F): 21.2 30.1 25.1 16.6 12.9 19.3 22.7 24.5 27.0 30.8 29.8 2m agl RH (%): 95 87 87 81 80 71 87 91 95 95 96 10m agl Dir: 299 285 301 344 356 42 69 67 65 43 50 10m agl Spd(kt): 4 9 7 9 7 7 6 9 10 8 9 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.26 0.02 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.38 0.40 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sfc CINH (J/kg): 0.0 -0.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -1.8 -0.1 0.0 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 110.7 143.2 78.3 204.0 104.4 152.3 309.7 599.5 765.9 657.3 257.4 Precip H20 (in): 0.33 0.37 0.30 0.19 0.13 0.19 0.41 0.56 0.71 0.80 0.71 Lifted Index(C): 15.6 13.9 16.1 17.4 20.2 21.0 17.1 12.7 7.8 5.4 4.6 700mb VV(-ub/s): -1.5 -4.2 -0.2 -1.6 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.5 6.5 1.8 1.2 Thk1000-500mb(m)5338.4 5311.7 5323.6 5314.9 5328.1 5331.2 5349.0 5366.2 5397.8 5430.0 5461.2 Thk1000-850mb(m)1282.2 1283.4 1278.5 1269.1 1266.0 1267.5 1272.1 1277.1 1295.2 1311.4 1313.9 Thk850-700mb(m):1523.6 1515.4 1521.5 1516.7 1522.6 1518.9 1524.4 1534.1 1543.0 1551.0 1561.3 SWEAT Index: 128.8 149.3 137.4 115.7 93.8 58.6 201.0 214.6 237.6 233.9 194.0 Total Totals Idx 29.4 33.5 25.5 22.5 11.8 9.0 29.1 36.7 44.1 45.6 47.5 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 20 369 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 26 20 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000 73 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 3581 6952 7201 Equil Prs (mb): 1018 1021 1023 1027 1029 1031 1030 1029 1027 1023 1022 Equil Hgt(amsl): 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 13.5 53.8 14.1 12.0 8.9 7.4 9.2 10.1 10.6 42.8 45.8 Showalter Index: 15.6 14.4 16.5 17.1 19.7 20.2 16.3 12.6 7.1 5.5 3.4 Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 Storm Dir (deg): 313 312 313 321 323 299 291 281 271 274 283 Storm Spd (kts): 32 35 34 28 21 17 21 24 25 23 19 2m HeatIndex(F): 22 33 28 22 18 27 26 27 28 32 31 2m WindChill(F): 16 26 20 11 8 19 18 17 18 24 22 1000mb GPH (m): 148 169 184 215 230 249 240 229 215 190 177 1000mb Temp (C): -1.9 -0.4 -1.1 -5.5 -8.3 -5.3 -4.6 -4.4 -3.2 -0.8 -1.7 1000mb Dewpt(C): -3.8 -2.2 -4.4 -10.2 -12.8 -9.5 -7.5 -5.4 -3.6 -1.0 -1.8 1000mb RH (%): 86 88 78 70 70 72 80 92 97 98 99 1000mb Dir: 325 289 308 349 6 47 75 74 73 54 55 1000mb Speed(kt): 6 11 14 17 13 7 10 14 15 11 12 950mb GPH (m): 556 577 591 616 628 650 642 631 621 601 586 950mb Temp (C): -2.5 -3.2 -4.2 -7.8 -8.6 -8.2 -7.6 -5.9 -3.3 1.2 0.1 950mb Dewpt(C): -6.0 -6.2 -7.9 -13.4 -18.1 -16.3 -12.1 -7.5 -3.5 1.2 0.1 950mb RH (%): 77 80 75 64 47 52 71 88 99 100 100 950mb Dir: 322 300 324 352 31 75 103 116 115 144 120 950mb Speed(kt): 15 19 20 20 14 9 11 19 27 16 6 900mb GPH (m): 982 1003 1014 1035 1048 1070 1063 1056 1052 1039 1024 900mb Temp (C): -5.2 -4.7 -6.5 -7.3 -6.4 -7.0 -6.2 -5.1 0.0 3.0 4.6 900mb Dewpt(C): -7.0 -9.7 -12.2 -18.8 -23.9 -26.8 -16.7 -5.3 0.0 3.0 3.5 900mb RH (%): 87 68 64 40 24 19 43 98 100 100 92 900mb Dir: 302 299 325 330 350 98 177 184 182 208 244 900mb Speed(kt): 20 24 21 14 9 3 9 20 30 29 16 850mb GPH (m): 1430 1452 1462 1484 1496 1517 1512 1506 1510 1501 1491 850mb Temp (C): -5.4 -5.3 -3.9 -4.0 -4.5 -5.1 -4.1 -3.8 0.0 2.2 5.1 850mb Dewpt(C): -14.6 -10.4 -16.7 -20.0 -27.6 -30.2 -10.0 -3.8 0.0 2.0 3.4 850mb RH (%): 48 67 37 28 15 12 63 100 100 99 89 850mb Dir: 283 286 305 291 311 280 222 224 219 229 245 850mb Speed(kt): 27 30 28 25 19 6 16 27 37 35 22 800mb GPH (m): 1907 1928 1941 1961 1973 1993 1990 1987 1995 1990 1984 800mb Temp (C): -4.0 -5.5 -3.7 -5.1 -4.4 -4.8 -4.0 -2.3 -1.0 0.7 2.4 800mb Dewpt(C): -24.5 -9.2 -15.7 -19.1 -32.4 -25.4 -5.9 -2.3 -1.0 0.5 0.3 800mb RH (%): 19 75 39 33 10 19 87 100 100 98 85 800mb Dir: 290 286 286 284 295 270 242 239 228 239 242 800mb Speed(kt): 37 39 38 33 25 15 24 36 38 35 27 750mb GPH (m): 2415 2433 2448 2466 2480 2498 2498 2498 2509 2507 2503 750mb Temp (C): -4.8 -6.7 -6.3 -7.1 -5.5 -6.3 -5.8 -3.9 -2.7 -1.8 -0.2 750mb Dewpt(C): -21.7 -11.8 -17.2 -22.5 -41.0 -20.6 -6.3 -4.4 -2.7 -1.8 -4.3 750mb RH (%): 26 67 42 28 4 32 96 96 100 100 74 750mb Dir: 287 286 278 282 288 266 253 249 239 247 243 750mb Speed(kt): 47 47 44 39 28 24 32 36 33 35 29 700mb GPH (m): 2954 2968 2984 3001 3018 3036 3036 3040 3053 3052 3053 700mb Temp (C): -8.3 -10.4 -9.4 -9.4 -7.4 -8.3 -8.6 -7.0 -5.7 -4.9 -3.1 700mb Dewpt(C): -16.0 -16.2 -18.5 -27.1 -40.1 -23.4 -9.7 -7.9 -6.0 -5.3 -9.2 700mb RH (%): 54 63 48 23 6 29 92 93 98 97 63 700mb Dir: 280 284 272 282 282 260 258 259 247 252 248 700mb Speed(kt): 52 54 51 45 31 30 38 33 28 36 29 For PHL, hour 48 is snow, and by hour 51, we're at ZR/IP, and it goes clear to hell from there. We don't get back to a snow sounding through the entire run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Groundhog's Day Ice Storm for East and Central PA (LV and Poconos) and parts of N NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I would say about 4 inches of snow on Tuesday, then freezing rain. How much snow before the change to ice? Besides that, is it more sleet here? Been hearing reports that it's more sleet here while KABE gets more ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How much snow before the change to ice? Besides that, is it more sleet here? Been hearing reports that it's more sleet here while KABE gets more ZR. you get zr as well per the NAM. 850's are up along the NY/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You would be surprised how far a strong amplified low can go. It has happened before and it will happen again. thing to watch is if the high continues to strengthen in southeast canada and doesn't try to escape east - then thats a sign the low will try and redevelop and take the path of least resistance - plus climatology and the current set up favors this .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CAD areas are going to get crushed here, weak WAA that cant dislodge the surface cold....look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thing to watch is if the high continues to strengthen in southeast canada and doesn't try to escape east - then thats a sign the low will try and redevelop and take the path of least resistance - plus climatology and the current set up favors this .... The same problem with the current setup would be the thing to allow it to escape east as there is no shape or form of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is snow through 51 hrs as per soundings. So, 2-3 inches of snow before the changeover. Probably less snow..... http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_054l.gif That is not verbatim snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 this looks a lot (not in terms of low pressure centers but sensible wx) like two weeks ago Tuesday, only with more of a front end thump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 upton has already said the NAM is dislodging the surface cold too quick. This has crippling ice storm written all over it from nyc on north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CAD areas are going to get crushed here, weak WAA that cant dislodge the surface cold....look out Yeah. And this is also a classic type of system where models can underestimate surface cold until we get under 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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