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Guest stormchaser

Two important differences this run. The High is stronger to our North and the low cuts further west in the mid-west which increases chances for re-development to the NJ Coast.

The second of those things not being nearly good as the first

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1030 mb High over Quebec on this run at 75 hrs vs. 1027mb last run.

Storm over midwest can only get so far before running into the big high - storm has to redevelop further east - thing to watch in future runs is colder an colder solutions with that high holding in southeast canada forcing the storm to possibly redevelop further south then currently progged especially if the cold air damming holds longer then expected

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Guest stormchaser

Storm over midwest can only get so far before running into the big high - storm has to redevelop further east - thing to watch in future runs is colder an colder solutions with that high holding in southeast canada forcing the storm to possibly redevelop further south then currently progged

You would be surprised how far a strong amplified low can go. It has happened before and it will happen again.

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NAM has redevelopment now with the low forming over NYC moving to se of the cape

move that 75 miles east and nyc stays all ice and areas to the north switch back to snow.

Interesting in that this isnt a relaible time frame for NAM - but I am not sure there is ever a reliable time frame for NAM this year.

Rossi

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Total storm qpf of 1.50+ for NYC and NE NJ.

Only about .1 to .2" of that at best as snow. Then a marginal ice storm with the worst being further north and west of the city

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PHL Soundings from 12Z NAM:

 Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr   54hr   60hr                               
Sfc Prs(mb):    1018.1 1020.5 1022.5 1026.9 1029.1 1031.2 1030.0 1028.5 1026.7 1023.2 1021.7                               
Mean SLP (mb):  1018.8 1021.4 1023.3 1027.8 1030.0 1032.2 1031.0 1029.4 1027.5 1024.2 1022.6                               
2m agl Tmp (F):   22.3   33.5   28.5   21.6   18.0   27.4   26.1   26.9   28.3   32.0   30.7                               
2m agl Dewpt(F):  21.2   30.1   25.1   16.6   12.9   19.3   22.7   24.5   27.0   30.8   29.8                               
2m agl RH (%):      95     87     87     81     80     71     87     91     95     95     96                               
10m agl Dir:       299    285    301    344    356     42     69     67     65     43     50                               
10m agl Spd(kt):     4      9      7      9      7      7      6      9     10      8      9                               
6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.03   0.09   0.26   0.02                               
AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.03   0.12   0.38   0.40                               
Sfc CAPE (J/kg):   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0                               
Sfc CINH (J/kg):   0.0   -0.7   -1.3   -0.6   -0.2    0.0   -0.4    0.0   -1.8   -0.1    0.0                               
0-3km Hel(J/kg): 110.7  143.2   78.3  204.0  104.4  152.3  309.7  599.5  765.9  657.3  257.4                               
Precip H20 (in):  0.33   0.37   0.30   0.19   0.13   0.19   0.41   0.56   0.71   0.80   0.71                               
Lifted Index(C):  15.6   13.9   16.1   17.4   20.2   21.0   17.1   12.7    7.8    5.4    4.6                               
700mb VV(-ub/s):  -1.5   -4.2   -0.2   -1.6    0.0    1.8    1.8    1.5    6.5    1.8    1.2                               
Thk1000-500mb(m)5338.4 5311.7 5323.6 5314.9 5328.1 5331.2 5349.0 5366.2 5397.8 5430.0 5461.2                               
Thk1000-850mb(m)1282.2 1283.4 1278.5 1269.1 1266.0 1267.5 1272.1 1277.1 1295.2 1311.4 1313.9                               
Thk850-700mb(m):1523.6 1515.4 1521.5 1516.7 1522.6 1518.9 1524.4 1534.1 1543.0 1551.0 1561.3                               
SWEAT Index:     128.8  149.3  137.4  115.7   93.8   58.6  201.0  214.6  237.6  233.9  194.0                               
Total Totals Idx  29.4   33.5   25.5   22.5   11.8    9.0   29.1   36.7   44.1   45.6   47.5                               
Frz Hgt(ft amsl)    20    369     20     20     20     20     20     20     20     26     20                               
0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000     73  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000   3581   6952   7201                               
Equil Prs (mb):   1018   1021   1023   1027   1029   1031   1030   1029   1027   1023   1022                               
Equil Hgt(amsl):    20     20     20     20     20     20     20     20     20     20     20                               
Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00                               
Conv Wind Gust:   13.5   53.8   14.1   12.0    8.9    7.4    9.2   10.1   10.6   42.8   45.8                               
Showalter Index:  15.6   14.4   16.5   17.1   19.7   20.2   16.3   12.6    7.1    5.5    3.4                               
Cap Strength(C):-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9                               
Storm Dir (deg):   313    312    313    321    323    299    291    281    271    274    283                               
Storm Spd (kts):    32     35     34     28     21     17     21     24     25     23     19                               
2m HeatIndex(F):    22     33     28     22     18     27     26     27     28     32     31                               
2m WindChill(F):    16     26     20     11      8     19     18     17     18     24     22                               

1000mb GPH (m):     148    169    184    215    230    249    240    229    215    190    177                               
1000mb Temp (C):   -1.9   -0.4   -1.1   -5.5   -8.3   -5.3   -4.6   -4.4   -3.2   -0.8   -1.7                               
1000mb Dewpt(C):   -3.8   -2.2   -4.4  -10.2  -12.8   -9.5   -7.5   -5.4   -3.6   -1.0   -1.8                               
1000mb RH (%):       86     88     78     70     70     72     80     92     97     98     99                               
1000mb Dir:         325    289    308    349      6     47     75     74     73     54     55                               
1000mb Speed(kt):     6     11     14     17     13      7     10     14     15     11     12                               

950mb GPH (m):     556    577    591    616    628    650    642    631    621    601    586                               
950mb Temp (C):   -2.5   -3.2   -4.2   -7.8   -8.6   -8.2   -7.6   -5.9   -3.3    1.2    0.1                               
950mb Dewpt(C):   -6.0   -6.2   -7.9  -13.4  -18.1  -16.3  -12.1   -7.5   -3.5    1.2    0.1                               
950mb RH (%):       77     80     75     64     47     52     71     88     99    100    100                               
950mb Dir:         322    300    324    352     31     75    103    116    115    144    120                               
950mb Speed(kt):    15     19     20     20     14      9     11     19     27     16      6                               

900mb GPH (m):     982   1003   1014   1035   1048   1070   1063   1056   1052   1039   1024                               
900mb Temp (C):   -5.2   -4.7   -6.5   -7.3   -6.4   -7.0   -6.2   -5.1    0.0    3.0    4.6                               
900mb Dewpt(C):   -7.0   -9.7  -12.2  -18.8  -23.9  -26.8  -16.7   -5.3    0.0    3.0    3.5                               
900mb RH (%):       87     68     64     40     24     19     43     98    100    100     92                               
900mb Dir:         302    299    325    330    350     98    177    184    182    208    244                               
900mb Speed(kt):    20     24     21     14      9      3      9     20     30     29     16                               

850mb GPH (m):    1430   1452   1462   1484   1496   1517   1512   1506   1510   1501   1491                               
850mb Temp (C):   -5.4   -5.3   -3.9   -4.0   -4.5   -5.1   -4.1   -3.8    0.0    2.2    5.1                               
850mb Dewpt(C):  -14.6  -10.4  -16.7  -20.0  -27.6  -30.2  -10.0   -3.8    0.0    2.0    3.4                               
850mb RH (%):       48     67     37     28     15     12     63    100    100     99     89                               
850mb Dir:         283    286    305    291    311    280    222    224    219    229    245                               
850mb Speed(kt):    27     30     28     25     19      6     16     27     37     35     22                               

800mb GPH (m):    1907   1928   1941   1961   1973   1993   1990   1987   1995   1990   1984                               
800mb Temp (C):   -4.0   -5.5   -3.7   -5.1   -4.4   -4.8   -4.0   -2.3   -1.0    0.7    2.4                               
800mb Dewpt(C):  -24.5   -9.2  -15.7  -19.1  -32.4  -25.4   -5.9   -2.3   -1.0    0.5    0.3                               
800mb RH (%):       19     75     39     33     10     19     87    100    100     98     85                               
800mb Dir:         290    286    286    284    295    270    242    239    228    239    242                               
800mb Speed(kt):    37     39     38     33     25     15     24     36     38     35     27                               

750mb GPH (m):    2415   2433   2448   2466   2480   2498   2498   2498   2509   2507   2503                               
750mb Temp (C):   -4.8   -6.7   -6.3   -7.1   -5.5   -6.3   -5.8   -3.9   -2.7   -1.8   -0.2                               
750mb Dewpt(C):  -21.7  -11.8  -17.2  -22.5  -41.0  -20.6   -6.3   -4.4   -2.7   -1.8   -4.3                               
750mb RH (%):       26     67     42     28      4     32     96     96    100    100     74                               
750mb Dir:         287    286    278    282    288    266    253    249    239    247    243                               
750mb Speed(kt):    47     47     44     39     28     24     32     36     33     35     29                               

700mb GPH (m):    2954   2968   2984   3001   3018   3036   3036   3040   3053   3052   3053                               
700mb Temp (C):   -8.3  -10.4   -9.4   -9.4   -7.4   -8.3   -8.6   -7.0   -5.7   -4.9   -3.1                               
700mb Dewpt(C):  -16.0  -16.2  -18.5  -27.1  -40.1  -23.4   -9.7   -7.9   -6.0   -5.3   -9.2                               
700mb RH (%):       54     63     48     23      6     29     92     93     98     97     63                               
700mb Dir:         280    284    272    282    282    260    258    259    247    252    248                               
700mb Speed(kt):    52     54     51     45     31     30     38     33     28     36     29

For PHL, hour 48 is snow, and by hour 51, we're at ZR/IP, and it goes clear to hell from there. We don't get back to a snow sounding through the entire run of the NAM.

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You would be surprised how far a strong amplified low can go. It has happened before and it will happen again.

thing to watch is if the high continues to strengthen in southeast canada and doesn't try to escape east - then thats a sign the low will try and redevelop and take the path of least resistance - plus climatology and the current set up favors this ....

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Guest stormchaser

thing to watch is if the high continues to strengthen in southeast canada and doesn't try to escape east - then thats a sign the low will try and redevelop and take the path of least resistance - plus climatology and the current set up favors this ....

The same problem with the current setup would be the thing to allow it to escape east as there is no shape or form of blocking.

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