cnjraider Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 heres the 0z jma at hr 72 It appears to me that most models are showing very similar solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, models are pretty keyed in on a few inches of snow then a mix then frza/ra (for NYC area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DT really indicating on his facebook page that this is not going to be an East Coast period through 2/10 or 2/15 or so...generally hyping all the events for the MW, including the one on the the 5th also being inland of where its shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06z NAM appears to be coming in slightly colder/further south with the Tuesday thump. stronger high pressure across the upper Midwest, at 1056mb at 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Given the extensive snow cover in place and strong CAD signal, as well as the trend on all models toward lower heights/more confluence over SE Canada and Maine, I would expect the secondary to develop near the NJ coast and head ENE to the south of LI, not move bodily over New England like many of the GFS ensembles are indicating. The ECMWF ensembles have been consistently supporting this further south track for several runs. There is the potential for a very significant ice storm for interior areas from northern NJ to the lower Hudson Valley and CT, and possibly even NYC itself. The one saving grace will be that there will likely be a significant break between the initial overrunning precip. and the batch from the main storm, and the precip. from the main storm will last only about 8-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06z NAM appears to be coming in slightly colder/further south with the Tuesday thump. stronger high pressure across the upper Midwest, at 1056mb at 54hr FWIW, and maybe not much but 06z NAM has joined the GGEM camp, maybe even exceeded the GGEM, keeps 850 0c 75-100 miles south of 00z, looks to stop in northern Westchester, weaker primary (by 8mbs) that pops a secondary south of LI at 84 hours, also has1028 mbs north of NE, 00z had that high at 1020 mb, appears NYC remains all frozen on this run but not all snow, however, if this is the beginning of a trend....but who's to say, only reason I'm looking is damn insomnia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 These events are so wierd in that Cape Cod can be all snow and NYC can change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 These events are so wierd in that Cape Cod can be all snow and NYC can change to rain its all about latitude it seems like here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 By the way, great SPS from OKX: AFTER SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORMS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...A DEEP SNOWPACK REMAINS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE TRI- STATE AREA. A GENERAL 10 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH REMAINS ON THE GROUND...WITH THE DEEPEST SNOW DEPTH VALUES ACROSS CONNECTICUT. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS IN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF WEIGHT PER SQUARE FOOT. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF COLLAPSED ROOFS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW...AND WITH THE THREAT OF YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...NOW IS THE TIME FOR RESIDENTS AND BUILDING OWNERS TO TAKE PREVENTATIVE ACTION TO SAFELY REMOVE SNOW FROM FLAT ROOF TOPS AND DECKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
citylikeAMradio Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 im new to this and im looking at my area (central nj), but im seeing some dusting-> little accum on tues and then ice->rain on wednesday.. the potential for ice is, at this point, definite whether it be after the snow or in lieu of it.. im assuming the nam is over intensified dropping the low to 992.. liking the gfs as a balance to the nam and the euro.. once the low leaves land i would expect another dusting -> little accum of snow.. first post so im looking for some feedback- thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06Z RGEM Three hour dominant precip. @ hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS bing in their AFD paints an ominous picture for us NEPA folk about a signifigant ice storm tuesday night into wednesday. Calling for widespread freezing rain after 4-6 inches of snow if I read it correctly. Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday: Snow before 1pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 24. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday: Freezing rain. High near 28. Chance of precipitation is 90%. I know most of you guys are metro folks, but there's hundreds of thousands of people in wilkes-barre/scranton area that may have a bad event on the horizon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS bing in their AFD paints an ominous picture for us NEPA folk about a signifigant ice storm tuesday night into wednesday. Calling for widespread freezing rain after 4-6 inches of snow if I read it correctly. Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday: Snow before 1pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 24. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday: Freezing rain. High near 28. Chance of precipitation is 90%. I know most of you guys are metro folks, but there's hundreds of thousands of people in wilkes-barre/scranton area that may have a bad event on the horizon... at least it's snow first then ice...not the other way around...still bad, could be a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 at least it's snow first then ice...not the other way around...still bad, could be a lot worse. 6z NAM has the low exiting the southern NJ coast, with colder air 35F or lower trapped to the north of the track, precip is by hour 84. As it is, N NJ/NYC would see 1" of snow, than some sleet/ice, ending as a cold rain. But a 50 mile shift south and the picture would be significanlty different. Places as close of Peekskill/Poughkeepsie are mostly snow, and 100% frozen/freezing. Going to be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM has the low exiting the southern NJ coast, with colder air 35F or lower trapped to the north of the track, precip is by hour 84. As it is, N NJ/NYC would see 1" of snow, than some sleet/ice, ending as a cold rain. But a 50 mile shift south and the picture would be significanlty different. Places as close of Peekskill/Poughkeepsie are mostly snow, and 100% frozen/freezing. Going to be close... NYC is definitely on the fence, IMO with round 2. Philly is pretty much going to get above 32 at some point but they'll probably have some icing to deal with Tuesday night. NYC may get more freezing rain out of this. 6z GFS is a nudge colder compared to 0z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WOW KABE: KAVP: That is a LOT of freezing rain (at least on the NAM).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Current Wxsim program with the 6z models has a good front end thump for the NW Philadelphia suburbs (4 to 5") followed by a significant ice storm (0.50" qpf) and then a significant amount of rain (around 1.0") to top things off. Temps beginning to back off a bit but still indicates a high of 40 on Wed PM (kinda suspicious of that) mid 30s more likely here's the rundown Snow arrives overnight by 3am Tuesday morning temp 22.5 Snow gets moderate to heavy during the afternoon with 4-5" of snow by 7pm Then a gradual change to IP then ZR for most of the night. Temps get above freezing just after 7am on Wed morning Current Snow depth here 19.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm still not buying ANY model solution at this juncture.....0Z tonight at the earliest, and probably later than that, we'll start to get a better idea of what will actually happen. Funny though, how everyone seems to have put this one to rest and moved on already. You would think after the way this year is going people would know better by now. What is interesting, is that the models seem to be getting little by little colder lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Even IF the precip changes to plain rain Wednesday afternoon by Wednesday evening the below freezing temps return and by Thursday morning temps are once again in the teens across NYC metro - which will mean flash freezing - so to recap its several inches of snow Tuesday - freezing rain some time Tuesday night - possibly a period of heavier rain Wednseday changing to snow showers Wednesday night then temps crash and all the slop freezes solid- what a mess - Thursday morning would be just as bad as Tuesday and Wednesday regarding travel conditions...........really no where for the liquid to drain with all huge snow piles blocking storm drains on the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For those interested JB tweeted this AM that the storm #1 tracks from Texas to Erie PA before 2ndry reaches coast...heaviest snow north and west of last few with ice a problem....#2 this weekend tracks up the coast and hits the places that have been getting it all year and the mid-atlantic too.. Plus big cold between the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For those interested JB tweeted this AM that the storm #1 tracks from Texas to Erie PA before 2ndry reaches coast...heaviest snow north and west of last few with ice a problem....#2 this weekend tracks up the coast and hits the places that have been getting it all year and the mid-atlantic too.. Plus big cold between the 2 I'm envisioning a 2007 situation with a sleetfest...I don't buy the rain solution the way this winter has been going...Regardless, I have a bad feeling about ice! Will definately be cranking up the heat starting Monday night in case we lose power for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hi DSS Not really the same situation....this looks like very shallow cold air near the surface so ZR very likely over and IP problems...fortunately I have an automatic generator that will kick in if need be. Take care Paul I'm envisioning a 2007 situation with a sleetfest...I don't buy the rain solution the way this winter has been going...Regardless, I have a bad feeling about ice! Will definately be cranking up the heat starting Monday night in case we lose power for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm envisioning a 2007 situation with a sleetfest...I don't buy the rain solution the way this winter has been going...Regardless, I have a bad feeling about ice! Will definately be cranking up the heat starting Monday night in case we lose power for a few days. The Valentine's Day 2007 storm has been a frequent analog with the current synoptics as shown on the CIPS website. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Valentine's Day 2007 storm has been a frequent analog with the current synoptics as shown on the CIPS website. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php I was just going to ask about the analog for this storm. The only thing different about that storm were the temperatures.They were much colder in that storm than what they will be in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 9z SREF gives the area about .50 qpf of frozen precip before the surface warms up. Also, the low looks streched out as it gets near the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SREF probabilities for the Lehigh Valley north are disastrous. Almost no plain rain falls after a couple inches of snow. Up to an inch of freezing rain in some spots. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 36 hrs the 12z NAM now has a CLOSED 1034 High over SE Ontario. It moves that to Northern NY State at 39 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Through 39 on NAM. Southern stream system definitely stronger than at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 42 hrs. the High continues to be a bit stronger to the north with a 1033 mb High centered over N VT and the precip has made it to ABE with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1056 high over Montana! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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