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Guest stormchaser

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Guest stormchaser

Not based upon what has been happening this year. It is MUCH more likely to go the other way.

The reality is..... past storms have no bearing on future outcomes. The pattern here is much different then with the other storms. To say what is more likely to happen one way or the other against what the data says is not feasible.

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Sounds like a significant ice storm for northern and central PA. Yikes.

I assume they crash back after hr90?

I can't buy for a second that the surface warmth surges north the way the mid level warmth does, with the degree of cold air prior and the snowcover. NE PA is a given I think for at least a sleet/ZR event. Plain rain makes it up to maybe Allentown but even there is iffy. Probably a huge differential between ABE and JFK in temps, i.e. maybe 30F/heavy ZR at ABE and 43F/RA at JFK. Hopefully we see some kind of trend south soon so at least the major warmth to the 40s stays south and over the open ocean.

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Any idea how it looks at DXR?

More rain and less ice, maybe, but the 6 hour max surface temp is 1.2º, and even assuming the Euro was perfect in everything else, a big ice storm is real close.

I'm looking at straight text now, no maps yet, interpolating 2 m, 850 mb temps and QPF at 6 hours, even assuming the model was perfect, not the best way to predict when things are so close, temp wise. Euro GFS maps won't on AccuWx before I go to bed. I can make forecast skew-Ts for any lat long at 6 hour intervals when they do update, which gives a better fell, but as I just mentioned, I won't be up then.

I'd take away, 4 days out, potential for a significant ice storm.

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I can't buy for a second that the surface warmth surges north the way the mid level warmth does, with the degree of cold air prior and the snowcover. NE PA is a given I think for at least a sleet/ZR event. Plain rain makes it up to maybe Allentown but even there is iffy. Probably a huge differential between ABE and JFK in temps, i.e. maybe 30F/heavy ZR at ABE and 43F/RA at JFK. Hopefully we see some kind of trend south soon so at least the major warmth to the 40s stays south and over the open ocean.

I can't even buy the mid-level warmth shown at 72 hours when the system is over MO...the models are not able to grasp this cold dome...even at 850-700mb until inside 48-60 hours.

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I can't buy for a second that the surface warmth surges north the way the mid level warmth does, with the degree of cold air prior and the snowcover. NE PA is a given I think for at least a sleet/ZR event. Plain rain makes it up to maybe Allentown but even there is iffy. Probably a huge differential between ABE and JFK in temps, i.e. maybe 30F/heavy ZR at ABE and 43F/RA at JFK. Hopefully we see some kind of trend south soon so at least the major warmth to the 40s stays south and over the open ocean.

As Will says, I believe this is a more east to west latitude event and the temperatures won't be that far apart. I'm not saying it won't be colder in Allentown, but in this situation I doubt by 13F.

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The reality is..... past storms have no bearing on future outcomes. The pattern here is much different then with the other storms. To say what is more likely to happen one way or the other against what the data says is not feasible.

How do you know what exactly the pattern will be when it hasn't happened yet? All we are looking at is "forecast maps". These maps do not etch the pattern in stone. It is in my opinion wiser to use the seasonal trends more than speculate that everything (pattern-wise) has changed when, in fact, we do not know that yet and it increasingly appears possible that it hasn't.

WX/PT

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I can't even buy the mid-level warmth shown at 72 hours when the system is over MO...the models are not able to grasp this cold dome...even at 850-700mb until inside 48-60 hours.

Yeah, models often overdo warm advection at this stage. Hopefully we see more of an elongation and/or more energy left behind soon so we see a further south track. Any way you cut it (pun not intended), a low headed to between CLE and BFD is never good when there's no coastal redevelopment south of here.

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Guest stormchaser

What has been happening all winter has pretty much gone against all the data all along. It won't stop now.

Just saying, pattern has alot to do with it this time around. Major teleconnectors are stacked against this being a snowstorm.

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As Will says, I believe this is a more east to west latitude event and the temperatures won't be that far apart. I'm not saying it won't be colder in Allentown, but in this situation I doubt by 13F.

Ehh, valleys can hold the cold air in pretty effectively, especially when it seems the warm air will be flowing in aloft like this according to modelling today/tonight. It might be wrong and often it's overdone, but the further inland you are and sheltered from surface warm intrusions like you would experience near the ocean, the better. The surface warming is probably very overdone at this stage given the foot to 2 feet of snow many of us have right now and the sprawling high we have before this mess heads in. Many of us will likely struggle to get above 32 and I could see ZR being a problem for many of us even closer to NYC.

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at 168 hrs. a sub 996 is well off the NJ Coast with light snow hanging way back to central PA and moderate snow right along the immediate coast. Should get a few inches total for everyone out of this.

Let's just keep this thread to this storm so as to avoid confusing/cluttering the thread please. People were getting confused as to what we were talking about earlier and i believe there is a separate thread already for next week's threat. Thanks.

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Ehh, valleys can hold the cold air in pretty effectively, especially when it seems the warm air will be flowing in aloft like this according to modelling today/tonight. It might be wrong and often it's overdone, but the further inland you are and sheltered from surface warm intrusions like you would experience near the ocean, the better. The surface warming is probably very overdone at this stage given the foot to 2 feet of snow many of us have right now and the sprawling high we have before this mess heads in. Many of us will likely struggle to get above 32 and I could see ZR being a problem for many of us even closer to NYC.

In Hazleton on the last mix event I topped out exactly at 32 and that's when the precip was down to essentially drizzle.

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Light snow continues through hour 174 as the low exits well east and out to sea.

So after the 2 phaser, the next storm seems to have trended south and east on the Euro is that correct? I know this is fantasy land, but I believe there was a third storm at hour 240 on the 12z euro that was warm, did that trend south and east as well?

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More rain and less ice, maybe, but the 6 hour max surface temp is 1.2º, and even assuming the Euro was perfect in everything else, a big ice storm is real close.

I'm looking at straight text now, no maps yet, interpolating 2 m, 850 mb temps and QPF at 6 hours, even assuming the model was perfect, not the best way to predict when things are so close, temp wise. Euro GFS maps won't on AccuWx before I go to bed. I can make forecast skew-Ts for any lat long at 6 hour intervals when they do update, which gives a better fell, but as I just mentioned, I won't be up then.

I'd take away, 4 days out, potential for a significant ice storm.

Thanks Ed. Knowing the Euro warm bias at this range I'm definitely concerned for icing.

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not as far north as the nam...its slides .1-.25 through phl and nyc

So it looks like 1-3" then mix/ freezing rain N and W of the city and rain further south. The positive thing on this run would be the low being weaker and more elongated. Also as was pointed out there appears to be a secondary develop. This goes back to what some models were trying to do a few days ago.

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Yes, it is further south and east for next weekend's storm.

So after the 2 phaser, the next storm seems to have trended south and east on the Euro is that correct? I know this is fantasy land, but I believe there was a third storm at hour 240 on the 12z euro that was warm, did that trend south and east as well?

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