Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Areas just to the North and West of NYC get heavy freezing rain between 78 and 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the euro takes the low up through youngstown oh....the long is weaker and alittle further east compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Areas just to the North and West of NYC get heavy freezing rain between 78 and 84 hrs. That doesn't sound too good.... How far NW are we talking about? 30 miles or so? Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Freezing line about 50 miles north of NYC at 90 hrs. Zero 850 line about 100 miles north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the euro takes the low up through youngstown oh....the long is weaker and alittle further east compared to 12z. Hopefully a trend in the right direction. The weaker/more elongated, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 90 it takes it over bradford pa and pops a 2ndry over central li...still looks like low to mid 40 for nyc and mid to upper 40s for phl,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Over at 96 hrs. Precip max total storm over NYC of 1.25+, surrounding areas are 1+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 EC DAY 4: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Over at 96 hrs. Precip max total storm over NYC of 1.25+, surrounding areas are 1+ The one time this area doesn't need to jackpot with QPF and low behold we do. Flooding is not high on my list of weather experiences. La Nina is finally flexing it's muscle. This is not a good setup and rain seems to be the most likely scenario after some front end snow considering the lack of blocking and a pretty hideous PNA setup as well. Total ugliness if you are looking to avoid flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 In Cliffside Park you will be getting 3-4 inches of snow on Tuesday, then freezing rain and sleet. I don't think you will see much rain. The Euro is too warm and it was last time too. The one time this area doesn't need to jackpot with QPF and low behold we do. Flooding is not high on my list of weather experiences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The one time this area doesn't need to jackpot with QPF and low behold we do. Flooding is not high on my list of weather experiences. La Nina is finally flexing it's muscle. This is not a good setup and rain seems to be the most likely scenario cosnidering the lack of blocking and a pretty hideous PNA setup as well. Total ugliness if you are looking to avoid flooding. This won't be a massive flooding event like January 17, 1996... Temps won't be that high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The most important question with this system for NYC and the immediate vicinity is how much flooding do we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I actually just noticed that it did pop a secondary low / transfer energy at 90 hrs just south of Long Island. So maybe we have something to watch for, if that can happen sooner it might be able to hold the cold air in better. By the way, the location that it transfers energy to is the exact same location that the Canadian said the low would exit the New Jersey coast south of Long Island. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 In Cliffside Park you will be getting 3-4 inches of snow on Tuesday, then freezing rain and sleet. I don't think you will see much rain. The Euro is too warm and it was last time too. This won't be a massive flooding event like January 17, 1996... Temps won't be that high... I certainly hope so because I have not seen snow piles like this since 1995-96 and that is saying something. Any kind of rain that causes flooding is a nightmare for many in the area. Not me, being on the cliffs but for plenty of other folks not so lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The most important question with this system for NYC and the immediate vicinity is how much flooding do we get. None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The one time this area doesn't need to jackpot with QPF and low behold we do. Flooding is not high on my list of weather experiences. Keep in mind, we still do not know where this is going. Tonight with the ECMWF, we are talking weaker, further east, more sprawled out, and eventually a secondary. Plus we have an arctic high banana shaped from the Rockies to eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England. All options are still open with this event. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How does the surface line run at hr78? 84? 90? Locations would be nice (Not just "north of NYC"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Verbatim Euro, the Wednesday morning commute in NYC would be ugly. As of 7 am, not quite to freezing at the surface with ballpark four tenths since the change from snow. Per AccuWx PPV numbers at LGA. Only about half an inch would fall as straight liquid water, interpolating 6 hour QPF and temps... So not the mother of all floods, even with frozen ground and frozen creeks and snow on storm drains. POU is very little liquid rain, maybe a very big ice storm. Verbatim, and interpolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This won't be a massive flooding event like January 17, 1996... Temps won't be that high... If you go by the 5F degree "rule" per the last storm, NYC would be in the upper 30's and Philly in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I certainly hope so because I have not seen snow piles like this since 1995-96 and that is saying something. Any kind of rain that causes flooding is a nightmare for many in the area. Not me, being on the cliffs but for plenty of other folks not so lucky. Oh yes, I agree. It is unreal over here. My dad hasn't seen it this bad since January 12th 1996, he claims.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 None Oh, we will get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Verbatim Euro, the Wednesday morning commute in NYC would be ugly. As of 7 am, not quite to freezing at the surface with ballpark four tenths since the change from snow. Per AccuWx PPV numbers at LGA. Only about half an inch would fall as straight liquid water, interpolating 6 hour QPF and temps... So not the mother of all floods, even with frozen ground and frozen creeks and snow on storm drains. POU is very little liquid rain, maybe a very big ice storm. Verbatim, and interpolating. Any idea how it looks at DXR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh yes, I agree. It is unreal over here. My dad hasn't seen it this bad since January 12th 1996, he claims.... Yes, the snow piles after the "96" blizzard were impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How does the surface line run at hr78? 84? 90? Locations would be nice (Not just "north of NYC"). hr 78 and 84 its below you with .75-1 qpf, by hr 90 its north of you and you get another .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Keep in mind, we still do not know where this is going. Tonight with the ECMWF, we are talking weaker, further east, more sprawled out, and eventually a secondary. Plus we have an arctic high banana shaped from the Rockies to eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and New England. All options are still open with this event. WX/PT Oh believe me I am well aware of that. I know this lesson well from following the last storm. I don't care how much snow I get even if it is nothing as long as there is not heavy enough rain to cause serious flooding and devastation to the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Most of the time precipitation is falling in the NYC area and Northern NJ the temperature will be below freezing. It will only rise above freezing as the storm is ending, or after it is pretty much over. If you go by the 5F degree "rule" per the last storm, NYC would be in the upper 30's and Philly in the low 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 78 and 84 its below you with .75-1 qpf, by hr 90 its north of you and you get another .1-.25 Sounds like a significant ice storm for northern and central PA. Yikes. I assume they crash back after hr90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Most of the time precipitation is falling in the NYC area and Northern NJ the temperature will be below freezing. It will only rise above freezing as the storm is ending, or after it is pretty much over. Well this is just a prediction at this point..... Noone knows exactly what will happen. You have to realize that this storm could just as easily shift 100 miles north and be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh believe me I am well aware of that. I know this lesson well from following the last storm. I don't care how much snow I get even if it is nothing as long as there is not heavy enough rain to cause serious flooding and devastation to the snow pack. Something similar to the 2" of rain we got after the "96' blizzard with temps in the 50s would not be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here comes the next threat up the coast at 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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