tornadojay Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 <br />I'll say it right now...I will be utterly AMAZED if even in this awful set-up we manage to stay all or mostly frozen (that includes any and all ice). If that happens I believe we make a realistic run at 95-96 and more likely surpass it in this anomalous ridiculous winter we're having.<br /><br /><br /><br />... Yea... And not to mention... Even the little minor nuisance storms have been over performing this winter. It seems like its very easy to make snow fall in our area this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If we pull off an all frozen event Tuesday into Wednesday albeit sleet/FR/Snow in any combination this would be stunningly dramatic. Preserving the snowpack is key with minimal eroding. 2010-11 is record smashing, potential record smashing, one surprise after another and we're only 1/3 into winter...nothing short of astonishing. well 2/3 of the way through MET winter (dec-feb). So about 50% of the way through seems more apt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well 2/3 of the way through MET winter (dec-feb). So about 50% of the way through seems more apt March and April should prove interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM looks like a massive ice storm for the lower hudson valley...it looks like the cold air doesn't make much progress north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like it exits the coast near Asbury Park, and just south of Long Island. Very close here. Areas just north of NYC get it pretty good. It actually keeps NW NJ frozen/freezing precip the entire time. 0z GGEM is snow to rain for NYC. It looks like the low exits right over NYC. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 March and April should prove interesting too. The winter cutoff for me is the 1st week of April. After that, it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 verbatim for KPNE from the 0z GFS, we're 0.25 SN, 0.13 ZR. the main events also begins with 0.19 ZR, then goes over to RN and 850's surge to +9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like it exits the coast near Asbury Park, and just south of Long Island. Very close here. Areas just north of NYC get it pretty good. Who said "the Trend is your Friend"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM looks like a massive ice storm for the lower hudson valley...it looks like the cold air doesn't make much progress north of NYC Looks like it exits the coast near Asbury Park, and just south of Long Island. Very close here. Areas just north of NYC get it pretty good. Very close situation. I was going to go to bed because I have work in the morning but now ,I am going to wait up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 To be honest, you just cann't discount any of the solutions. We are seeing large run to run differences and even complete flips from one day to the next. Honestly we seem to do better this year when most of the guidance is not supportive of a SECS. I also can not think of a single event so far this year that was modeled well 4-5 days out. Drawing conclusions at this point is just plain stupid. You just get the feeling that this year is ultra special with all of the luck we have been having. I have a feeling we don't get out of February without a MECS and if we could manage to get some blocking, who knows maybe we could hit the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 heres the ukmet at hr 72 slp and h5 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The winter cutoff for me is the 1st week of April. After that, it's over. April 15th is the one for me, Since I cant forget winter storm warnings from 4.19.83 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The winter cutoff for me is the 1st week of April. After that, it's over. In Hazleton we can go all the way into the end of April. But by then I'm in the "Get warm!" camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 April 15th is the one for me, Since I cant forget winter storm warnings from 4.19.83 for NYC realistically we have about 6-7 weeks left of ideal conditions. Once mid March rolls around we start to have issues with the higher sun angle. The latest Euro weeklies really wants to pump up the SE ridge in the long term and pretty much put an end to winter east of the Mississippi in late February. Alot of speculations and dissagreement on that though. I'm finding hard to understand how a model could properly forecast the SE ridge over a month in advance when it cann't even get a forecast right 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It wouldn't take much of an adjustment for an all frozen event for most of far N. Jersey...meaning Sussex, Warren, Passaic, Bergen, and Morris counties....and a bit more for NYC...being further north will likely be the main factor here...with proximity to the coast taking on lesser importance. And the difference 10- 15 miles can make from Long Island South Shore to North Shore too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly, you are an intelligent man. I love the analysis that you bring to this board and I agree with your assessment. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment for an all frozen event for most of far N. Jersey...meaning Sussex, Warren, Passaic, Bergen, and Morris counties....and a bit more for NYC...being further north will likely be the main factor here...with proximity to the coast taking on lesser importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The updated HPC heavy snowfall maps keep the significant probabilities fairly well north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The updated HPC heavy snowfall maps keep the significant probabilities fairly well north of NYC. Far enough north that Ottawa gets in on the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't see anything new posted. The updated HPC heavy snowfall maps keep the significant probabilities fairly well north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't see anything new posted. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.hpc.ncep....hr_probs_sn.php The probs are high for freezing rain in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The probs are high for freezing rain in the area. Tombo, you should be up soon for your pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tombo, you should be up soon for your pbp. im here, but nothing is of noteworthy change through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We are talking about the major storm affecting the country this week. However we are also making earmark notes about how this storm sets up a potential storm for next weekend as well. This storm however also kind of has two parts 1) the overrunning and 2) the main low. Hope that helps clear it up : ) Probably why I'm confused...thanks for the explanation. Hope you can sort it all out. I'll just watch...good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Always appreciate your great work and dedication Tombo. Much thanks for what you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro has about 3 inches of snow with the Tuesday event. .25+ liquid equiv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 per euro we get 1-3 of overunning before the 850s blast through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850 line makes it north of NYC past 72 hrs, then freezing drizzle between 72 and 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro has about 3-4 inches of snow with the Tuesday event. Sounds like a 2 phaser like the last storm. If only the 2nd wave can wait for the arctic air like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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