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<br />I'll say it right now...I will be utterly AMAZED if even in this awful set-up we manage to stay all or mostly frozen (that includes any and all ice).  If that happens I believe we make a realistic run at 95-96 and more likely surpass it in this anomalous ridiculous winter we're having.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

... Yea... And not to mention... Even the little minor nuisance storms have been over performing this winter. It seems like its very easy to make snow fall in our area this winter

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If we pull off an all frozen event Tuesday into Wednesday albeit sleet/FR/Snow in any combination this would be stunningly dramatic.

Preserving the snowpack is key with minimal eroding.

2010-11 is record smashing, potential record smashing, one surprise after another and we're only 1/3 into winter...nothing short of astonishing.

well 2/3 of the way through MET winter (dec-feb). So about 50% of the way through seems more apt

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Looks like it exits the coast near Asbury Park, and just south of Long Island. Very close here. Areas just north of NYC get it pretty good. It actually keeps NW NJ frozen/freezing precip the entire time.

0z GGEM is snow to rain for NYC. It looks like the low exits right over NYC.

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

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GGEM looks like a massive ice storm for the lower hudson valley...it looks like the cold air doesn't make much progress north of NYC

Looks like it exits the coast near Asbury Park, and just south of Long Island. Very close here. Areas just north of NYC get it pretty good.

Very close situation. I was going to go to bed because I have work in the morning but now ,I am going to wait up for the Euro.

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To be honest, you just cann't discount any of the solutions. We are seeing large run to run differences and even complete flips from one day to the next. Honestly we seem to do better this year when most of the guidance is not supportive of a SECS. I also can not think of a single event so far this year that was modeled well 4-5 days out. Drawing conclusions at this point is just plain stupid.

You just get the feeling that this year is ultra special with all of the luck we have been having. I have a feeling we don't get out of February without a MECS and if we could manage to get some blocking, who knows maybe we could hit the jackpot.

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April 15th is the one for me, Since I cant forget winter storm warnings from 4.19.83 for NYC

realistically we have about 6-7 weeks left of ideal conditions. Once mid March rolls around we start to have issues with the higher sun angle. The latest Euro weeklies really wants to pump up the SE ridge in the long term and pretty much put an end to winter east of the Mississippi in late February. Alot of speculations and dissagreement on that though. I'm finding hard to understand how a model could properly forecast the SE ridge over a month in advance when it cann't even get a forecast right 48 hrs out.

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It wouldn't take much of an adjustment for an all frozen event for most of far N. Jersey...meaning Sussex, Warren, Passaic, Bergen, and Morris counties....and a bit more for NYC...being further north will likely be the main factor here...with proximity to the coast taking on lesser importance.

And the difference 10- 15 miles can make from Long Island South Shore to North Shore too.

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Honestly, you are an intelligent man. I love the analysis that you bring to this board and I agree with your assessment.

It wouldn't take much of an adjustment for an all frozen event for most of far N. Jersey...meaning Sussex, Warren, Passaic, Bergen, and Morris counties....and a bit more for NYC...being further north will likely be the main factor here...with proximity to the coast taking on lesser importance.

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We are talking about the major storm affecting the country this week. However we are also making earmark notes about how this storm sets up a potential storm for next weekend as well.

This storm however also kind of has two parts 1) the overrunning and 2) the main low.

Hope that helps clear it up : )

Probably why I'm confused...thanks for the explanation. Hope you can sort it all out. I'll just watch...good luck!

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