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These types of events are so risky in those areas out there because alot of the time they track further south than forecast and are somewhat prone to convective energy on the SE side ruining the moisture field on the cold side of the storm...there was a similar southwest flow storm in February 2000 that was forecast to drop 1-2 feet in many areas this one is now...the system ultimately wound up being very sprawled out and virtually nobody saw even 12 inches.

i know rediculous.. i like uptons first call for us.. very safe leave it at that.. chicago on the other hand.. what are they thinking??? 24"+!!! 48+ hours out!!

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Could have been 1/7/94 then, the big NYC ice storm...we saw almost no snow with that, just alot of sleet early on....but Bridgeport saw something like 8-9 inches and even the far north fork of LI did as well.

I don't remember that storm all that well, were there any disruptions in NYC?

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What signs would we need to see to lead us to imagine this could be all or mainly snow for NYC?

When would those signs become evident?

All or mainly snow for NYC? HIGHLY unlikely but i would assume it would take something like the initial LP being weaker/further south before any coastal redevelopment occurs, the coastal would also need to pop further south and maybe a bit further offshore. The HP to the north would need to be stronger and perhaps a tad further west then what is being shown as well as a bit further south to force the whole solution further south.

EDIT: And when would we be aware of this? After the storm occured, just like every other storm this year that we dont ever know what its going to do lol

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What signs would we need to see to lead us to imagine this could be all or mainly snow for NYC?

When would those signs become evident?

this is going to end up being a now casting event especially in NYC metro because that is the area on the fence in all of this - one or 2 degrees is critical - the 18Z model runs are not an off hour fluke - would be too much of a coincidence if both the Nam and GFS were trending colder at the same time ........

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ace i agree that the LP track is better hence the 18z suit cooling off the surface, and if this continues then maybe the mid-levels too. Increasing chances of something not often seen around this area...a major ice-storm.

i dont know....a track like that might yield a fairly snowy eventual solution....more so than what is being shown at this time- also NAm at 72-84hrs isnt so reliable...

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