jdt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 4:30pm latest briefing from Mt Holly mentioning risk of "Catastrophic Ice Event" http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Not what I wanted to see but not surprised. Advised the GF to get any necessary food shopping down early tomorrow just in case. Luckily she is off tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ace...look back at the last 20 posts...ppl are talking about the icing threat from the main event not about the front end overrunning, which being more likely all snow has your attention. Just look at the whole threat here and stop IMBYing. This clearly trended colder at the surface for the main event and that is what we're all talking about ok- lets end this... lets talk about something kind of important why the GFS is SO MUCH colder at the surface....look at where the SLP goes....instead of N PA its in Maryland.....IF that is CORRECT, the mid levels will follow suit and cool down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nice moderation in this thread, lemme tell ya. Can you weenies go 1 frigging day without fighting like 12 year olds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Should be interesting. We are about 20 miles NW of Philadelphia and our pine trees are still heavily laden down with snow. Assuming it doesn't melt off tomorrow - they will not be able to take much more weight. Next model runs will tell more, but I see this a nowcast the day of the game as a few degrees one way or the other on the surface and in the upper air will tell the tale. I don't think the models can show that in the zones that are close to one precip type or another. I know where I live I have seen a difference in as little as 2 miles due to elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oh i wasnt saying you were. But yes if the HP is stronger or further south then i suppose it would force the whole situation further south. But again why would there be any reason for the high to all of a sudden be further south ya know? That is just hoping. Why indeed, you do realize that it wasn't even there yesterday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 interesting...because I know a lot of posters north of the 850 line as depicted by the GFS who are going to get an all snow event for the front end. Stop being a weenie are you trying to prove my point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ok- lets end this... lets talk about something kind of important why the GFS is SO MUCH colder at the surface....look at where the SLP goes....instead of N PA its in Maryland.....IF that is CORRECT, the mid levels will follow suit and cool down Thank you, yes, exactly. If that low follows that path then with a high strong to the north i wouldnt see why the overall solution would turn out to be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Catastrophic ice storm looming if 18z models are true. 18z NAM: KMDT = 1.217" All falls as freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Upton's ice forecast uh oh that wouldnt be good.. idk if ive ever seen that much ice forecasted this far out.. i think this might be a situation where the general public actually hopes for snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Why indeed, you do realize that it wasn't even there yesterday right? Well i believe there was always some sort of "banana high" in place but yes i do realize that it was not modeled there like it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thank you, yes, exactly. If that low follows that path then with a high strong to the north i wouldnt see why the overall solution would turn out to be colder. interesting to note- like you had posted earlier abt Roger Smith....this is exactly what his forecast is based off of. on a side note- i remember a storm in 1994 that produced 15-18" in the boston area and our area just got sleet.....may have been mid january 1994....this set up kinda reminds me of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well i believe there was always some sort of "banana high" in place but yes i do realize that it was not modeled there like it is now. Hey, no hard feelings man....I'm just saying that nothing is set in stone thats all....I think everyone would agree with that at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nice moderation in this thread, lemme tell ya. Can you weenies go 1 frigging day without fighting like 12 year olds? +10000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 interesting to note- like you had posted earlier abt Roger Smith....this is exactly what his forecast is based off of. on a side note- i remember a storm in 1994 that produced 15-18" in the boston area and our area just got sleet.....may have been mid january 1994....this set up kinda reminds me of that storm It was the 2/8/94 event I think....we got 6-10 inches and then sleet the entire night and next morning, they snowed the entire time I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey, no hard feelings man....I'm just saying that nothing is set in stone thats all....I think everyone would agree with that at this point... Exactly- nothing set in stone at all at this point. And in this winter, until the storm is underway nothing really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 upton mets are very cautious on snow totals as you see for most of our storms they'll start off with a general 6-12" for every big storm and move up to the big totals after that.. but how about chicagos nws saying in excess of 24" towards chicago and the indiana border likely at this stage wow.. very gutsy 48+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Red Taggers in the Midwest Forum not buying the 18Z Nam, seems to be some pretty sharp mets over there most likely because it doesnt show as much snow for them.. we'll see at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can still have rain with surface temps below freezing. We had it a few weeks ago here..it was literally 30 F and raining. It's important to look at the depth of the warm layer...the NAM is probably much more of a sleet storm than the GFS. Definitely a colder jump on afternoon guidance though. 30 degrees and rain is nothing. I remember several years ago I had temps in the low 20's with RAIN. now that's some low level cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 66, 32 degree line disects LI and NYC boroughs. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif Think you mean bisects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IDK IF SOMEONE POSTED THIS FROM UPTON IF THE 18Z NAM IS CORRECT...INTERIOR PORTIONS WOULD RECEIVE MAINLY SNOW...WITH THE AREA OF HEAVIER FREEZING RAIN SHIFTING FARTHER S. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...THE ONE OFFERED BY THE 18Z NAM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCURRING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How many neglected wives and girlfriends are there? We're lucky we're allowed to induldge. (Most of us) This is a nail biter; For NYC/LI from what looked like a bit of snow to ice to rain now looks at the very least to be primarily frozen. I remember February 1994 quite well, it was two storms in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Storm one 8 inches followed by a lot of ice, 36 hours later 8 inches of snow followed by a lot of ice. NO rain. If NYC/LI can add six inches to freshen everything up nicely then ice to encapsulate it, we're in great shape for Saturday's storm. If we get more snow than is progged, even better. though less than 10% if we did get all snow wih a foot plus, on top of what we have it would be nothing short of living in Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So 30 miles north of Philly does it look like there could be some icing problems? Isn't Lehigh Valley the ice capital of the US? We need to wait til the 0z runs come in... This is a VERY ominous situation being depicted as of now... The last ice storm caused power outages that lasted longer than a week for folks in Penn Forest Township (on the Pocono Plateau) several years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 guys before you go nuts over the 18z nam, i would giveit another run to see if its right. Snowgoose said this in the new england thread early this morning that the 6z and 18z runs have a bias of running to cold. So lets just see if it holds for 0z. it didn't run colder just becasue it felt like it.. the storm had a better track for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It was the 2/8/94 event I think....we got 6-10 inches and then sleet the entire night and next morning, they snowed the entire time I believe. feb 8th was the first part of the KU event that completed that friday...nope that isnt the one. we got very little snow. a matter of fact it kept trying to go over to snow and i remember the flakes were frozen clumps of who knows what...it was the first and only time I had seen that...it was as if they were thick ice flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ace i agree that the LP track is better hence the 18z suit cooling off the surface, and if this continues then maybe the mid-levels too. Increasing chances of something not often seen around this area...a major ice-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 upton mets are very cautious on snow totals as you see for most of our storms they'll start off with a general 6-12" for every big storm and move up to the big totals after that.. but how about chicagos nws saying in excess of 24" towards chicago and the indiana border likely at this stage wow.. very gutsy 48+ hours out especially because that high hP out west might force everything a bit further south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 upton mets are very cautious on snow totals as you see for most of our storms they'll start off with a general 6-12" for every big storm and move up to the big totals after that.. but how about chicagos nws saying in excess of 24" towards chicago and the indiana border likely at this stage wow.. very gutsy 48+ hours out These types of events are so risky in those areas out there because alot of the time they track further south than forecast and are somewhat prone to convective energy on the SE side ruining the moisture field on the cold side of the storm...there was a similar southwest flow storm in February 2000 that was forecast to drop 1-2 feet in many areas this one is now...the system ultimately wound up being very sprawled out and virtually nobody saw even 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 feb 8th was the first part of the KU event that completed that friday...nope that isnt the one. we got very little snow. a matter of fact it kept trying to go over to snow and i remember the flakes were frozen clumps of who knows what...it was the first and only time I had seen that...it was as if they were thick ice flakes Could have been 1/7/94 then, the big NYC ice storm...we saw almost no snow with that, just alot of sleet early on....but Bridgeport saw something like 8-9 inches and even the far north fork of LI did as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How many neglected wives and girlfriends are there? We're lucky we're allowed to induldge. (Most of us) This is a nail biter; For NYC/LI from what looked like a bit of snow to ice to rain now looks at the very least to be primarily frozen. I remember February 1994 quite well, it was two storms in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Storm one 8 inches followed by a lot of ice, 36 hours later 8 inches of snow followed by a lot of ice. NO rain. If NYC/LI can add six inches to freshen everything up nicely then ice to encapsulate it, we're in great shape for Saturday's storm. If we get more snow than is progged, even better. though less than 10% if we did get all snow wih a foot plus, on top of what we have it would be nothing short of living in Syracuse i dont remember any sleet on feb 8th 1994...I do however remember it on the friday feb 11th portion of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What signs would we need to see to lead us to imagine this could be all or mainly snow for NYC? When would those signs become evident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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