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Guest stormchaser

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Well, this run of the GFS is not all the way there yet, but does keep NW NJ all frozen or freezing. It is noticeably colder than previous runs.

It is a step towards where the 18Z NAM went just not as extreme. Since we are talking about 18z runs still not ready to bite. Definitely has planted a seed but that seed won't hatch unless 0z supports this. What does scare me is the 1.5" to 2.0" qpf outputs with possibilities a big portion of that could possible be freezing rain. Let us hope it ends up either snow/sleet or rain. That amount of freezing rain is big trouble.

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You can still have rain with surface temps below freezing. We had it a few weeks ago here..it was literally 30 F and raining. It's important to look at the depth of the warm layer...the NAM is probably much more of a sleet storm than the GFS.

Definitely a colder jump on afternoon guidance though.

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Wow, this run is coming in a lot colder. The freezing line is just north of NYC at hour 72. It then drops back down at hour 75, The low is exiting off the NJ coast.

how is it colder? the first event is WARMER...comparing 18Z to 12Z

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Our main s/w is on shore now and was likely properly sampled.

Well..... 00z models which run a fresh new data set and not "off hour" will have full run with the s/w being on shore, so they will really be able to properly sample it and i think that will really begin to either lend credence to this colder solution or let us know we are grasping at straws.

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how is it colder? the first event is WARMER...comparing 18Z to 12Z

how is it warmer? the surface freezing isotherm makes it barely into southern westchester during the 72-78 hour time frame when the 12z had it in up into putnam and orange cty. Are we looking at the same map or are you just being argumentative because it doesn't have such a cold/intense front end dump?

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Also, there seems to be more agreement on a coastal redevelopment recently....That was (and probably still is) a very uncertain factor for a while. Man, if that thing can pop a little further south.....

If that ops faster/further south then the game is really on. However, im not sure what mechanism would force such a thing to occur. So it is basically wishcasting/dreaming right now for that to happen.

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You can still have rain with surface temps below freezing. We had it a few weeks ago here..it was literally 30 F and raining. It's important to look at the depth of the warm layer...the NAM is probably much more of a sleet storm than the GFS.

Definitely a colder jump on afternoon guidance though.

your thermometer must have been off because we had some good ice accretion on trees and snowpack as well as colder surfaces until we went over 32. while i dont expect ice to accumulate on roadways, it should help to sustain our snowpack

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the surface is much colder...im focusing on the ice threat for the NYC region, i think getting mostly snow is a huge long shot for NYC

ya ace tends to selectively analyze a situation. If he wants snow then that is what he is going to comment on/look for it. Clearly everyone else in this thread knows what this situation is trending towards so it'd be best to either ignore him or let him analyze not only the snow parameters, but also the icing parameters.

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how is it warmer? the surface freezing isotherm makes it barely into southern westchester during the 72-78 hour time frame when the 12z had it in up into putnam and orange cty. Are we looking at the same map or are you just being argumentative because it doesn't have such a cold/intense front end dump?

overall at 850 it is warmer...the 0C line is further north. compare 18at 54 and 12 z at 60

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If that ops faster/further south then the game is really on. However, im not sure what mechanism would force such a thing to occur. So it is basically wishcasting/dreaming right now for that to happen.

I'm not wishcasting anything....I'm not buying into anything ATM.....And I've been saying that all along. However, what happens if that HP to the north is just a little bit stronger, or further south??

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The 18z GFS Snowfall output map from Wright-Weather has 3-6 inches from Rt. 78 in PA and NJ north to Rt. 80, then North of Rt. 80 through southern half of Sussex County, Northern Passaic County, and NW Bergen County, NJ is 6-10 inches, then northern Sussex County, NJ, Pike County, PA, and Orange County, NY are 10-15 inches. It does not show anything east of there for some reason.

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I'm not wishcasting anything....I'm not buying into anything ATM.....And I've been saying that all along. However, what happens if that HP to the north is just a little bit stronger, or further south??

Oh i wasnt saying you were. But yes if the HP is stronger or further south then i suppose it would force the whole situation further south. But again why would there be any reason for the high to all of a sudden be further south ya know? That is just hoping.

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ya ace tends to selectively analyze a situation. If he wants snow then that is what he is going to comment on/look for it. Clearly everyone else in this thread knows what this situation is trending towards so it'd be best to either ignore him or let him analyze not only the snow parameters, but also the icing parameters.

lets make an introduction....pot---->kettle.

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no one is talkign about the surface 850 line for the front end thump! we're talking about the surface line for the main event.

well with the 850 0C line in S NY no one is getting an all snow event....why waste time with the second event before the first?

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lets make an introduction....pot---->kettle.

ace...look back at the last 20 posts...ppl are talking about the icing threat from the main event not about the front end overrunning, which being more likely all snow has your attention. Just look at the whole threat here and stop IMBYing. This clearly trended colder at the surface for the main event and that is what we're all talking about

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We aren't too far off from a major ice storm based on the nam and gfs. If the surface is just a tad bit colder, we'll be in big trouble. That strong high in SE Canada is allowing the surface cold to drain southward, the surface will def get colder in future runs as long as the surface low doesn't shift to the NW.

We didn't even have the cold high like we did a couple weeks ago where we had that snow/freezing rain/rain event.

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And here we go again. :thumbsdown: Fighting over an off-hour model run that will likely be significantly different in 6 hours.

Yea, let's take it down a notch in here before this gets even worse guys.

Anyway, lets see what 00z has tonight, i think that will let us know if this is a trend or an off hour burp. Tonight we should have the 00z models with fresh data with the s/w fully on shore.

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