Analog96 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ya I doubt there are many solutions that would lead to all or mostly snow but anything but rain at this point...although I guess rain with temps in the mid and upper 30's wont kill this massive snowpack.. Sleet takes a LONGGGGGG time to melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This thread is confusing as to which event is being discussed. We are talking about the major storm affecting the country this week. However we are also making earmark notes about how this storm sets up a potential storm for next weekend as well. This storm however also kind of has two parts 1) the overrunning and 2) the main low. Hope that helps clear it up : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sleet takes a LONGGGGGG time to melt! ya I doubt this snow pack is going anywhere anytime soon unless we get a cutter to chicago and the SE ridge flexes its nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It actually sends it off the DelMarva, just as HPC has been saying and as they based their forecast off of. I gotta give it to ya..... NYC and NNJ stay frozen the entire time on NOGAPS. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011013000∏=850τ=084&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011013000∏=850τ=090&set=Core First is 84 hour 850/RH and second is 90 hr 850/RH Below is 84 hr precip and 90 hr precip respectively https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011013000∏=prpτ=084&set=Core https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2011013000∏=prpτ=090&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z GGEM is the same as the 12z run. Much colder and further south and east than the GFS. Here is the GGEM at 96 hours. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you have the frame before that snow88? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, post 84 hours also. Getting really close here guys. Honestly, it ain't over till its over. It is close now. This thing cuts south of us and goes out over the DelMarva. Just watch. HPC is right. 0z GGEM is the same as the 12z run. Much colder and further south and east than the GFS. Here is the GGEM at 96 hours. http://www.weatherof...ast/134_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GEM is as stubbon as it was on the last event...the difference is that this time I think its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you have the frame before that snow88? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, it even has the support of the NOGAPS now, which just changed its tune. The GEM is as stubbon as it was on the last event...the difference is that this time I think its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z GGEM is the same as the 12z run. Much colder and further south and east than the GFS. Here is the GGEM at 96 hours. http://www.weatherof...ast/134_100.gif Haha yea but most of that precip probably falls before the 850s go back below. And the two frames before that are very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GEM is as stubbon as it was on the last event...the difference is that this time I think its right. I'll say it right now...I will be utterly AMAZED if even in this awful set-up we manage to stay all or mostly frozen (that includes any and all ice). If that happens I believe we make a realistic run at 95-96 and more likely surpass it in this anomalous ridiculous winter we're having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.weatherof...ast/133_100.gif Hard to exactly tell but it looks like it takes the low off Delmarva somewhat similar to what NOGAPS is showing. Hopefully a more skilled set of eyes can give more insight then I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GEM is as stubbon as it was on the last event...the difference is that this time I think its right. has the area above freezing 72 - 84 and not sure when it goes below between 84 and 96, but its better than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hard to exactly tell but it looks like it takes the low off Delmarva somewhat similar to what NOGAPS is showing. Hopefully a more skilled set of eyes can give more insight then I. Either off the Delmarva or right on top of NYC. I can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS/EURO/NAM>>>>>>>GGEM/NOGAPS. However this time I'd be more than happy if the euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 based on the location of the low compared to the EURO and GFS it is likely the 2m temps are very close to if not below freezing. So this is not a nogaps like solution where we stay mostly snow but it is definitely an all or mostly frozen solution. Yea but GGEM seems closer to NOGAPS then to GFS/NAM if i am not mistaken. Also, if someone with good memory can think back to the last storm, wasnt the NOGAPS the first to consistently latch onto our snowstorm? I dont want to start separating camps yet but it looks like it wants to be NOGAPS/GGEM at one end vs. GFS/NAM/Euro at the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll say it right now...I will be utterly AMAZED if even in this awful set-up we manage to stay all or mostly frozen (that includes any and all ice). If that happens I believe we make a realistic run at 95-96 and more likely surpass it in this anomalous ridiculous winter we're having. The models are very bad with these sorts of setups....in 93-94 the 2/8-2/11 period was forecast to be primarily rain by the models 3-5 days out, it was not until the morning of the 7th that most of the forecasts began to realize both events were going to be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Haha yea but most of that precip probably falls before the 850s go back below. And the two frames before that are very warm. I would love to see how the surface temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Euro was at least 5 degrees too warm here with the surface temps on the last storm and at least 2 degrees too warm with 850 temps at this time range. Keep that in mind. GFS/EURO/NAM>>>>>>>GGEM/NOGAPS. However this time I'd be more than happy if the euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS ensembles say congrats Detroit...rain for everyone east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All in all, this looks to have a good front end thump of WAA snows, but the question is whether the low can transfer to the east and not amplify as much, and have mostly frozen precip fall, either sleet or snow, more than rain....I wouldn't also mind to give up some snow to help us out with the potential threat after the mid-week storm, since it will have an effect on the event that comes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS ensembles say congrats Detroit...rain for everyone east of the Apps. Yea, it still seems the data is overwhelmingly in favor of a MW/GL storm. However at least there is something making it worth tracking for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I still say that the high builds in stronger across southern Canada and this storm cuts across to our south and off the DelMarva. We really don't need it to redevelop so much as we need it to stay to our south in conjunction with the high building in stronger to our north, and that is precisely what happened with the last storm as well, even though the models did not see it until the last minute. By the way, I was saying this even before the NOGAPS and Canadian just came in showing almost precisely what I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm wondering if the convection in the deep south being generated is causing convective feedback issues. We all saw what the thunderstorms over the gulf did with the last event. Does this event setup a temporary 50/50 block later on? I think we have yet another monster in the making and some nice blocking would sure help. I know the V-Day 2007 storm has shown up alot in the analogs, and I think we might just get that. That seems like a comprimise right now between the GFS/NAM?EC and the NOAGP/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We can't classify the UKMET or the ECMWF yet as they have not come in yet on this data feed. I'm wondering if the convection in the deep south being generated is causing convective feedback issues. We all saw what the thunderstorms over the gulf did with the last event. Does this event setup a temporary 50/50 block later on? I think we have yet another monster in the making and some nice blocking would sure help. I know the V-Day 2007 storm has shown up alot in the analogs, and I think we might just get that. That seems like a comprimise right now between the GFS/NAM?EC and the NOAGP/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z GGEM is snow to rain for NYC. It looks like the low exits right over NYC. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Could not have said it better myself. And the warm air has not been winning too many battles this year either. Climatologically speaking, warm surges don't often make it up into western Massachusetts and the Southern Tier of NY during the first week of February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If we pull off an all frozen event Tuesday into Wednesday albeit sleet/FR/Snow in any combination this would be stunningly dramatic. Preserving the snowpack is key with minimal eroding. 2010-11 is record smashing, potential record smashing, one surprise after another and we're only 1/3 into winter...nothing short of astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Could not have said it better myself. And the warm air has not been winning too many battles this year either. I think this does little to help our purposes further south here though. (NNJ/NYC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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