ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 51 850's and surface over the city......about .20 has fallen frozen..this for the 18z gfs 850 is south of NYC. Even south of LI. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110130/18/gfs_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif At 54, it's on top of NYC: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110130/18/gfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif But surface freezing is on south shore of LI http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110130/18/gfs_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 66 surface temp goes from nyc-middlesex county-ttn-out west....850's north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not as cold as the NAM, but the 18Z GFS is definitely coming in colder than 12Z.. 850s flirting with Putnam/Southern Dutchess Co at 66/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is still below freezing through hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 66, 32 degree line disects LI and NYC boroughs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110130/18/gfs_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 66 surface temp goes from nyc-middlesex county-ttn-out west....850's north of the city Colder than 12z easy...surface was above 32 in all of NJ except extreme northern at 12z/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is definitely colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 between the hrs of 69-72 the city goes above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM lends some credence to Roger Smith's ideas.... Just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Too bad the GFS isn't weakening the low like the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, this run is coming in a lot colder. The freezing line is just north of NYC at hour 72. It then drops back down at hour 75, The low is exiting off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll say this..... This is getting eerily close to being a major coup for snow lover's. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_066l.gif A 1032 in just about perfect position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just a layman's question regarding this potential event. Would it be accurate to summarize the loose general consensus, not necessarily among mets, on this event over the last 36 hours as follows (with regard to the NYC/Philly area)? 36 hrs ago: Big storm, mostly snow 24 hrs ago: Big storm, maybe mostly rain 15 hrs ago: Forget it, it's all rain, it's so far west we'll get breezy showers is all 8 hrs ago: Not only is this a non event but now it's messed up next weekend's as well 6 hrs ago: Big storm mostly snow 3 hrs ago: Big storm, snow / ice /rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hour 69, NYC is still at or below freezing. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110130/18/gfs_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif With .25"-.50" already fallen as sleet/ice http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110130/18/gfs_namer_069_precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Now the freezing line at the surface doesnt get to KHPN.....moving south with each succesive run. By 0z tonight the SW will be fully on land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With the surface low that far south, I don't think anyone north of Central NJ would get above 32 degrees at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, this run of the GFS is not all the way there yet, but does keep NW NJ all frozen or freezing. It is noticeably colder than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just a layman's question regarding this potential event. Would it be accurate to summarize the loose general consensus, not necessarily among mets, on this event over the last 36 hours as follows (with regard to the NYC/Philly area)? 36 hrs ago: Big storm, mostly snow 24 hrs ago: Big storm, maybe mostly rain 15 hrs ago: Forget it, it's all rain, it's so far west we'll get breezy showers is all 8 hrs ago: Not only is this a non event but now it's messed up next weekend's as well 6 hrs ago: Big storm mostly snow 3 hrs ago: Big storm, snow / ice /rain You forgot the off hour run rafter hanging scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just a layman's question regarding this potential event. Would it be accurate to summarize the loose general consensus, not necessarily among mets, on this event over the last 36 hours as follows (with regard to the NYC/Philly area)? 36 hrs ago: Big storm, mostly snow 24 hrs ago: Big storm, maybe mostly rain 15 hrs ago: Forget it, it's all rain, it's so far west we'll get breezy showers is all 8 hrs ago: Not only is this a non event but now it's messed up next weekend's as well 6 hrs ago: Big storm mostly snow 3 hrs ago: Big storm, snow / ice /rain I don't think very many people were swayed by the 18z NAM of all things to project an all-snow event. Not saying it isn't going to happen, but there isn't a lot of supporting evidence right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hour 69, NYC is still at or below freezing. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif With .25"-.50" already fallen as sleet/ice http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p12.gif between 69-72 the city goes above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll say this..... This is getting eerily close to being a major coup for snow lover's. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_066l.gif A 1032 in just about perfect position? The highs have been showing up on recent runs. Really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Now the freezing line at the surface doesnt get to KHPN.....moving south with each succesive run. By 0z tonight the SW will be fully on land Im beginning to think I might experience my first major ice-storm. Being that I live on a school campus it means that I don't have to worry about my property but I bet power outages could be a major concern. The 18z GFS has like 3-6in of snow followed by maybe an inch of sleet and freezing rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC itself only goes above freezing at the surface for about 2-4 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS QPF by hour 84; some light additional precip, nothing major, after this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, look where that 2 inch bullseye is.... If that were to verify, a lot of the area is in for major trouble. :wacko: What a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC itself only goes above freezing at the surface for about 2-4 hours http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_078l.gif If the next couple runs suggest this may be a trend developing people in and around NYC will think the apocalypse is coming if this turns into a major ice-storm. The media will have a field day I can't even imagine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Insanely colder then 12z. NYC barely gets above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This has been the trend all winter guys. As you get closer the models start to see the strength of the high pressure and cold air to the north. It probably gets better from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Im beginning to think I might experience my first major ice-storm. Being that I live on a school campus it means that I don't have to worry about my property but I bet power outages could be a major concern. The 18z GFS has like 3-6in of snow followed by maybe an inch of sleet and freezing rain up here. exactly...this is a colder solution than the previous mixed bag storm and I think we stay below freezing. either a big ice storm or a big snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 N NJ does not. Insanely colder then 12z. NYC barely gets above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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