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Well, how much do you see it showing? Looks like at least 12 inches to me, even if it does mix with sleet for NW NJ. And what makes you think I did not check soundings?

Instead of looking at algorithm based maps why don't we try using our brains and look at soundings and qpf data?

just a radical idea..

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I personally think it will trend even colder and further south than currently modeled. The cold has been winning all year. It seems that those high pressure centers over southern Canada develop from nowhere and are stronger than projected every time this winter. I was saying this yesterday before the models were even showing it and a lot of people thought I was nuts. Well, maybe I am, but that is my call and has been.

I tend to agree with you....It seems that the problem is lack of data from the canadian region, this was discussed last week or the week before. Which leads to the models not handling what happens there very well. The problem with that is, it has big implications on what happens around here.

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there is a lot of warm air for the second wave, here is HPN (white plains)

prec.png

Its uglier further south and better further north obviously. The proble is a nasty warm wedge around 825 that you can't see with the 850 line. At least it isn't all rain though.

Isn't that 12z nam?

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there is a lot of warm air for the second wave, here is HPN (white plains)

Its uglier further south and better further north obviously. The proble is a nasty warm wedge around 825 that you can't see with the 850 line. At least it isn't all rain though.

those coolwx maps are inaccurate. text and skewts show HPN never getting above freezing. It's probably zr at the end.

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I personally think it will trend even colder and further south than currently modeled. The cold has been winning all year. It seems that those high pressure centers over southern Canada develop from nowhere and are stronger than projected every time this winter. I was saying this yesterday before the models were even showing it and a lot of people thought I was nuts. Well, maybe I am, but that is my call and has been.

Cannot argue with that point. Last weeks event was a rainstorm and look what happened we still ended up on the NW edge of the best snows. I will gladly take the 18Z idea as it greatly reduces the ice threat for me though increases it for others. Soundings do show a warm level after about 69-72 hours in the 850 area. So I would suspect after some snow with part two we would end with sleet or some freezing rain and drizzle with temsp in the mid to upper 20s. I won't right this run off as not possible. It surely is I am just not ready to except it with great confidence just yet. Tomorrow morning that may be a compleletly different idea if over night runs show some movement in that direction. More sleep deprivation it appears is the only certain thing for many of us at this juncture.

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Wright-Weather snowfall map from the NAM output at 18z. If you don't know who Wright-Weather is, it is who CNN, the Weather Channel, NOAA, and many of the network television and radio stations use for their data. It is a subscription only site.

www.wright-weather.com

Thanks, great site. I was not trying to be confrontational, just concerned about this event.

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Well, if that verifies, please tune in to wnep and point and laugh at me at some street corner somewhere near Wilkes-Barre if we goto wall-to-wall coverage as I bask in all my glory talking to hundreds of thousands of people about the fact that yes, indeed, it is snowing outside. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Im gonna need a better pair of boots---It may be time for a Wal-Mart run tonight!

You guys need to go live on the internet, so those of us not in the area can watch ya, lol. :thumbsup:

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guys before you go nuts over the 18z nam, i would giveit another run to see if its right. Snowgoose said this in the new england thread early this morning that the 6z and 18z runs have a bias of running to cold. So lets just see if it holds for 0z.

What I've seen there usually to warm....

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We do broadcast our live news on the internet at WNEP.com

I have not been around for a wall-to-wall event yet...but since we already go live for news I don't see why not for something like that.

Ok, good deal. And btw, my Dad, who works for the power company here, and has been in DC since Friday morning with all the issues down there, just got told today to be on standby to go to NE PA, N NJ, S NY if needed. They're already preparing for the worst just in case.

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