NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 KAVP text data... http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kavp.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, how much do you see it showing? Looks like at least 12 inches to me, even if it does mix with sleet for NW NJ. And what makes you think I did not check soundings? Instead of looking at algorithm based maps why don't we try using our brains and look at soundings and qpf data? just a radical idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I personally think it will trend even colder and further south than currently modeled. The cold has been winning all year. It seems that those high pressure centers over southern Canada develop from nowhere and are stronger than projected every time this winter. I was saying this yesterday before the models were even showing it and a lot of people thought I was nuts. Well, maybe I am, but that is my call and has been. I tend to agree with you....It seems that the problem is lack of data from the canadian region, this was discussed last week or the week before. Which leads to the models not handling what happens there very well. The problem with that is, it has big implications on what happens around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is the next model data suite that we should be looking at that would give more credence to the current prognostications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nam gives sne(ct included), southern Ny, and northern Pa 12-18 inches of snow...nyc get 4-8 and also Li... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So how long of an event will this be for NYC/NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Instead of looking at algorithm based maps why don't we try using our brains and look at soundings and qpf data? just a radical idea.. As long as it means no BUFKIT inflated snowfall totals I'm in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So how long of an event will this be for NYC/NJ? another two wave storm. Look @ the graph above for KAVP and the time stamps. That will give you an indication of one model's guidance for what appears to be a long-duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS is coming in now. What is the next model data suite that we should be looking at that would give more credence to the current prognostications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 there is a lot of warm air for the second wave, here is HPN (white plains) Its uglier further south and better further north obviously. The proble is a nasty warm wedge around 825 that you can't see with the 850 line. At least it isn't all rain though. Isn't that 12z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 there is a lot of warm air for the second wave, here is HPN (white plains) Its uglier further south and better further north obviously. The proble is a nasty warm wedge around 825 that you can't see with the 850 line. At least it isn't all rain though. those coolwx maps are inaccurate. text and skewts show HPN never getting above freezing. It's probably zr at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Red Taggers in the Midwest Forum not buying the 18Z Nam, seems to be some pretty sharp mets over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 guys before you go nuts over the 18z nam, i would giveit another run to see if its right. Snowgoose said this in the new england thread early this morning that the 6z and 18z runs have a bias of running to cold. So lets just see if it holds for 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Two questions based on logic: Is there any chance NYC can pull off a coup and stay all snow? Is there any chance NYC stays frozen without any plain rain whatsoever? No, I don't think so. JMHO No, I don't think so. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I personally think it will trend even colder and further south than currently modeled. The cold has been winning all year. It seems that those high pressure centers over southern Canada develop from nowhere and are stronger than projected every time this winter. I was saying this yesterday before the models were even showing it and a lot of people thought I was nuts. Well, maybe I am, but that is my call and has been. Cannot argue with that point. Last weeks event was a rainstorm and look what happened we still ended up on the NW edge of the best snows. I will gladly take the 18Z idea as it greatly reduces the ice threat for me though increases it for others. Soundings do show a warm level after about 69-72 hours in the 850 area. So I would suspect after some snow with part two we would end with sleet or some freezing rain and drizzle with temsp in the mid to upper 20s. I won't right this run off as not possible. It surely is I am just not ready to except it with great confidence just yet. Tomorrow morning that may be a compleletly different idea if over night runs show some movement in that direction. More sleep deprivation it appears is the only certain thing for many of us at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WOOPS, SORRY. That was 12z, I'm a numb nuts. Here is 18z Still a warm layer after a good thumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That was 12z nam. 18z nam has 1.2" of qpf as snow for hpn: http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2011013018/KHPN/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 those coolwx maps are inaccurate. text and skewts show HPN never getting above freezing. It's probably zr at the end. it was the wrong map, sorry, and they are pretty accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wright-Weather snowfall map from the NAM output at 18z. If you don't know who Wright-Weather is, it is who CNN, the Weather Channel, NOAA, and many of the network television and radio stations use for their data. It is a subscription only site. www.wright-weather.com Thanks, great site. I was not trying to be confrontational, just concerned about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, if that verifies, please tune in to wnep and point and laugh at me at some street corner somewhere near Wilkes-Barre if we goto wall-to-wall coverage as I bask in all my glory talking to hundreds of thousands of people about the fact that yes, indeed, it is snowing outside. :thumbsup: Im gonna need a better pair of boots---It may be time for a Wal-Mart run tonight! You guys need to go live on the internet, so those of us not in the area can watch ya, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I completely understand. It was not taken that way at all. Thanks, great site. I was not trying to be confrontational, just concerned about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Even LGA is .67" as snow, .58" as sleet, almost zero freezing rain and only .3" of pure rain at end: http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2011013018/KLGA/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 51 850's and surface over the city......about .20 has fallen frozen..this for the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 guys before you go nuts over the 18z nam, i would giveit another run to see if its right. Snowgoose said this in the new england thread early this morning that the 6z and 18z runs have a bias of running to cold. So lets just see if it holds for 0z. What I've seen there usually to warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You guys need to go live on the internet, so those of us not in the area can watch ya, lol. We do broadcast our live news on the internet at WNEP.com I have not been around for a wall-to-wall event yet...but since we already go live for news I don't see why not for something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 57 on the gfs has 850's are north of nyc....yet surface is south of phl-ocean county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 .25-.50 for NYC with the 1st wave. Not as impressive as the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The first wave appears to be pretty much all snow for N NJ and NYC but maybe some sleet mixed in at the end as per soundings and looks like around .40 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What I've seen there usually to warm.... the samething happened at 6z today with the nam. It was ridicuously cold, well not as cold as this 18z one was. 12z it shifted back towards the other guidance. Im not saying toss it but im saying just give it another run, these off runs have been fluky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We do broadcast our live news on the internet at WNEP.com I have not been around for a wall-to-wall event yet...but since we already go live for news I don't see why not for something like that. Ok, good deal. And btw, my Dad, who works for the power company here, and has been in DC since Friday morning with all the issues down there, just got told today to be on standby to go to NE PA, N NJ, S NY if needed. They're already preparing for the worst just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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