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ok so my crude analysis was off my 16 milesrolleyes.gif

my point had nothing to do with how north 55miles was but that due north of NYC isn't Connecticut...

My point being is that N. Westchester is no where near 55 miles North of NYC. If your gonna reference something get it right..

Fishkill NY in Dutchess cty is roughly 55 due North of the city.. 16 miles is alot

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would have to see 3 hr increments but it looks like NYC does not get above freezing at all on the 18z NAM. Looks like a thump of snow followed by IP/ZR. I do not expect the ZR to be really bad as the temperature will be close to freezing, but it will be good enough to cake the trees and the snowpack in ice.

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_Knyc.txt

Up this way it stays below 0 at all levels. Much colder than the 12z runs.

18z

http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_Kswf.txt

12z

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KSWF.txt

OKX snow map shows 7.4" snow then 0.64 ice.:axe:

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My point being is that N. Westchester is no where near 55 miles North of NYC. If your gonna reference something get it right..

Fishkill NY in Dutchess cty is roughly 55 due North of the city.. 16 miles is alot

actually see my previous post...as the crow flies the northern most part of westchester is just over 50 miles away

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My point being is that N. Westchester is no where near 55 miles North of NYC. If your gonna reference something get it right..

Fishkill NY in Dutchess cty is roughly 55 due North of the city.. 16 miles is alot

maybe you should get your facts straight before calling me out. On the OXK radar you can click on a location and find out the direct mileage by moving your cursor over another location. NYC to northern westchester (couple miles north of peekskill) 47-52 miles. Case closed thanks for your time

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NYC is about 10 inches

SW CT 15-18 inches

Long Island eastern end 4-6 western end 6-10

Where is this from? Is this your forecast? I have not seen this anywhere. I am just asking for clarity as I am working through the weekend and only periodically able to check on this storm.

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As I said...would make the whole frustration worth it.

Wow.

Well, if that verifies, please tune in to wnep and point and laugh at me at some street corner somewhere near Wilkes-Barre if we goto wall-to-wall coverage as I bask in all my glory talking to hundreds of thousands of people about the fact that yes, indeed, it is snowing outside. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Im gonna need a better pair of boots---It may be time for a Wal-Mart run tonight!

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maybe you should get your facts straight before calling me out. On the OXK radar you can click on a location and find out the direct mileage by moving your cursor over another location. NYC to northern westchester (couple miles north of peekskill) 47-52 miles. Case closed thanks for your time

Not one location in Westchester is greater then 50 miles facepalm.png

Somers -- 42 miles

North Salem -- 45 miles

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Wright-Weather snowfall map from the NAM output at 18z. If you don't know who Wright-Weather is, it is who CNN, the Weather Channel, NOAA, and many of the network television and radio stations use for their data. It is a subscription only site.

www.wright-weather.com

Where is this from? Is this your forecast? I have not seen this anywhere. I am just asking for clarity as I am working through the weekend and only periodically able to check on this storm.

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You can't see the same map I am looking at unless you subscribe to Wright-Weather, which is quite different from the map you are looking at. Not saying which is right, just what they show.

I see....sorry for that confusion....I will say tho, I don't think anything is showing us what the final outcome will exactly be just yet....

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FROM THE 18Z NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS ON WRIGHT-WEATHER.

EAST CENTRAL AND NE PA FROM RT. 78 NORTH 18+ TO A MAX OF 20+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS

NW NJ FROM RT. 78 NORTH AND WEST OF 287 18-20 INCHES.

JUST SOUTH OF THERE TO NW BURBS OF PHILLY, THROUGH HUNTERDON COUNTY NJ TO ESSEX COUNTY NJ 10-18 INCHES

IMMEDIATE BURBS NW OF PHILLY TO ABOUT EDISON NJ 6-10 INCHES

SE NY 15-18 INCHES

NYC LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 10 INCHES

18Z definitely gives us something to ponder. Not going to bite on those numbers at this time. The colder idea though i will give a little more credence to. It is 18Z and half of this ( the second half) is still out in the NAM less trusted range. Let us see if 18Z GFS then the following 0Z guidance gives this idea any type of support.

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I personally think it will trend even colder and further south than currently modeled. The cold has been winning all year. It seems that those high pressure centers over southern Canada develop from nowhere and are stronger than projected every time this winter. I was saying this yesterday before the models were even showing it and a lot of people thought I was nuts. Well, maybe I am, but that is my call and has been.

18Z definitely gives us something to ponder. Not going to bite on those numbers at this time. The colder idea though i will give a little more credence to. It is 18Z and half of this ( the second half) is still out in the NAM less trusted range. Let us see if 18Z GFS then the following 0Z guidance gives this idea any type of support.

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ABE's 18z NAM sounding show about 8 inches of snow for 1st wave, then 3.2 inches of snow for 2nd wave, followed by quite a bit of freezing rain/sleet, ending as flurries...never goes above 28 degrees. That is what I call ugly travel conditions.

Wow Chris that is impressive. And travel conditions will be bad because Penndot will be told not to plow to bare pavement because of the ice. This will shutdown Rt 78 for sure. Post this in the LV thread too. Time to start a new thread there. Thanks

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