MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Upton's ice forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ok so my crude analysis was off my 16 miles my point had nothing to do with how north 55miles was but that due north of NYC isn't Connecticut... My point being is that N. Westchester is no where near 55 miles North of NYC. If your gonna reference something get it right.. Fishkill NY in Dutchess cty is roughly 55 due North of the city.. 16 miles is alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC's ice forecast Half an inch of ice would be crippling...if the models continue to show this, ice storm warnings will be necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC's ice forecast If that's the case, watches should be flying very shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 would have to see 3 hr increments but it looks like NYC does not get above freezing at all on the 18z NAM. Looks like a thump of snow followed by IP/ZR. I do not expect the ZR to be really bad as the temperature will be close to freezing, but it will be good enough to cake the trees and the snowpack in ice. http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_Knyc.txt Up this way it stays below 0 at all levels. Much colder than the 12z runs. 18z http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_Kswf.txt 12z http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_KSWF.txt OKX snow map shows 7.4" snow then 0.64 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC's ice forecast thats a little scary for areas just N and W of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Clown map! Its about time that sharp gradient falls on the other side.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Two questions based on logic: Is there any chance NYC can pull off a coup and stay all snow? Is there any chance NYC stays frozen without any plain rain whatsoever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is about 10 inches SW CT 15-18 inches Long Island eastern end 4-6 western end 6-10 what about NYC/LI/SWCT thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My point being is that N. Westchester is no where near 55 miles North of NYC. If your gonna reference something get it right.. Fishkill NY in Dutchess cty is roughly 55 due North of the city.. 16 miles is alot actually see my previous post...as the crow flies the northern most part of westchester is just over 50 miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ABE's 18z NAM sounding show about 8 inches of snow for 1st wave, then 3.2 inches of snow for 2nd wave, followed by quite a bit of freezing rain/sleet, ending as flurries...never goes above 28 degrees. That is what I call ugly travel conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LI looks to get between .50-1.00" of ice per 18Z NAM, so Ice storm warnings for NYC and LI should be issued later as confidence. Signal is strong right now like in 1/1994 event. Amazing to see that again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is about 10 inches SW CT 15-18 inches Long Island eastern end 4-6 western end 6-10 cool thanks... another shift south and were sitting pretty. i'd assume boston/orh is gonna get crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, if that High over Quebec continues to come in stronger, and I think it will, it will get only more snowy from here. Two questions based on logic: Is there any chance NYC can pull off a coup and stay all snow? Is there any chance NYC stays frozen without any plain rain whatsoever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Boston is 10-15 through hour 84 of course Chicago is 24 inches cool thanks... another shift south and were sitting pretty. i'd assume boston/orh is gonna get crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was at a home show with Tom and Noreen Clark this morning and they are concerned about tuesday and wednesday for us NEPA folks. However Tom told me he expects it to go over to plain rain even up here in NEPA with temps aroune 35-36 degrees @ the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My point being is that N. Westchester is no where near 55 miles North of NYC. If your gonna reference something get it right.. Fishkill NY in Dutchess cty is roughly 55 due North of the city.. 16 miles is alot maybe you should get your facts straight before calling me out. On the OXK radar you can click on a location and find out the direct mileage by moving your cursor over another location. NYC to northern westchester (couple miles north of peekskill) 47-52 miles. Case closed thanks for your time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As I said...would make the whole frustration worth it. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is about 10 inches SW CT 15-18 inches Long Island eastern end 4-6 western end 6-10 Not really, looking at that clown map IMBY is 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is about 10 inches SW CT 15-18 inches Long Island eastern end 4-6 western end 6-10 Where is this from? Is this your forecast? I have not seen this anywhere. I am just asking for clarity as I am working through the weekend and only periodically able to check on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z Nam has over 8 inches of snow for NYC. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As I said...would make the whole frustration worth it. Wow. Well, if that verifies, please tune in to wnep and point and laugh at me at some street corner somewhere near Wilkes-Barre if we goto wall-to-wall coverage as I bask in all my glory talking to hundreds of thousands of people about the fact that yes, indeed, it is snowing outside. :thumbsup: Im gonna need a better pair of boots---It may be time for a Wal-Mart run tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 maybe you should get your facts straight before calling me out. On the OXK radar you can click on a location and find out the direct mileage by moving your cursor over another location. NYC to northern westchester (couple miles north of peekskill) 47-52 miles. Case closed thanks for your time Not one location in Westchester is greater then 50 miles Somers -- 42 miles North Salem -- 45 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can't see the same map I am looking at unless you subscribe to Wright-Weather, which is quite different from the map you are looking at. Not saying which is right, just what they show. Not really, looking at that clown map IMBY is 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wright-Weather snowfall map from the NAM output at 18z. If you don't know who Wright-Weather is, it is who CNN, the Weather Channel, NOAA, and many of the network television and radio stations use for their data. It is a subscription only site. www.wright-weather.com Where is this from? Is this your forecast? I have not seen this anywhere. I am just asking for clarity as I am working through the weekend and only periodically able to check on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can't see the same map I am looking at unless you subscribe to Wright-Weather, which is quite different from the map you are looking at. Not saying which is right, just what they show. I see....sorry for that confusion....I will say tho, I don't think anything is showing us what the final outcome will exactly be just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FROM THE 18Z NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS ON WRIGHT-WEATHER. EAST CENTRAL AND NE PA FROM RT. 78 NORTH 18+ TO A MAX OF 20+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS NW NJ FROM RT. 78 NORTH AND WEST OF 287 18-20 INCHES. JUST SOUTH OF THERE TO NW BURBS OF PHILLY, THROUGH HUNTERDON COUNTY NJ TO ESSEX COUNTY NJ 10-18 INCHES IMMEDIATE BURBS NW OF PHILLY TO ABOUT EDISON NJ 6-10 INCHES SE NY 15-18 INCHES NYC LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 10 INCHES 18Z definitely gives us something to ponder. Not going to bite on those numbers at this time. The colder idea though i will give a little more credence to. It is 18Z and half of this ( the second half) is still out in the NAM less trusted range. Let us see if 18Z GFS then the following 0Z guidance gives this idea any type of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Instead of looking at algorithm based maps why don't we try using our brains and look at soundings and qpf data? just a radical idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I personally think it will trend even colder and further south than currently modeled. The cold has been winning all year. It seems that those high pressure centers over southern Canada develop from nowhere and are stronger than projected every time this winter. I was saying this yesterday before the models were even showing it and a lot of people thought I was nuts. Well, maybe I am, but that is my call and has been. 18Z definitely gives us something to ponder. Not going to bite on those numbers at this time. The colder idea though i will give a little more credence to. It is 18Z and half of this ( the second half) is still out in the NAM less trusted range. Let us see if 18Z GFS then the following 0Z guidance gives this idea any type of support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ABE's 18z NAM sounding show about 8 inches of snow for 1st wave, then 3.2 inches of snow for 2nd wave, followed by quite a bit of freezing rain/sleet, ending as flurries...never goes above 28 degrees. That is what I call ugly travel conditions. Wow Chris that is impressive. And travel conditions will be bad because Penndot will be told not to plow to bare pavement because of the ice. This will shutdown Rt 78 for sure. Post this in the LV thread too. Time to start a new thread there. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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