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and we all know how that turned out last time...in case you forgot

5 days out-rain

4 days out-rain

3 days out-rain to snow

2 days out-snow-rain-ice-snow

1 day out-maybe all snow?

day of....HECS

The high may come to the rescue again here. To anyone who thinks I'm comparing the 2 set-ups I am not, they are completely different. What is the same however, is the push of the high pressure that keeps cold air locked in just enough to keep the precipitation mostly frozen is more than a possibility.

I think it's unlikely we see a majority of this storm fall as snow, but if we do somehow manage to see over a foot (again, very unlikely), the ramifications will be very severe for the area (not that I'd complain!). We're already seeing very widespread snow fatigue as it just keeps coming and coming every few days--since 1/7 we've seen snow every 3 or 4 days. It sounds cliched, but the elderly & other at risk groups are going to have difficulty coping with another major winter event (shoveling, walking, etc--in some areas, you can't really shovel as there's nowhere to put it!).

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I think it's unlikely we see a majority of this storm fall as snow, but if we do somehow manage to see over a foot (again, very unlikely), the ramifications will be very severe for the area (not that I'd complain!). We're already seeing very widespread snow fatigue as it just keeps coming and coming every few days--since 1/7 we've seen snow every 3 or 4 days. It sounds cliched, but the elderly & other at risk groups are going to have difficulty coping with another major winter event (shoveling, walking, etc--in some areas, you can't really shovel as there's nowhere to put it!).

Oh I wasn't suggesting this is mostly a snowstorm for anyone south of 287 but I'm just highlighting how unlike small changes in a 500mb set up, the placement of a stronger high 100 miles SE will have huge implications, just as it would if it slipped offshore just at the wrong time and we end up with 0 frozen and all rain.

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Be careful. There is a warm layer just above 850 that would change many people over to sleet.

Yeah I also didn't notice where Trumbull is...I was thinking more along the lines of 55 miles almost due north of NYC (kinda by Danbury)...which Trumbull is not I now see.

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Per this run of the NAM you would see much more snow than several inches.

Yah, now that I see the qpf, it may be like a foot of snow, then throw on the protective armor of .25 of ice - maybe more. My parents live on Cape Cod and lost their power in the December Gale back in '06 - it was out for 3 days. Losing power in the Winter is more than inconvenient. If the NAM verifies - there will be issues the likes of which we have not seen in decades.

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Interesting, latest #1 analog is the blizzard of 88. Says NYC gets 2-4" while areas 20 miles north and west get 8-18". (2/11/88) #2 analog is 2/9/94 which says everyone north of Philly gets 6"+. Sort of an odd snowfall map though on that one which actually has a strip of 8-12" over north central NJ followed by lower amounts over extreme north Jersey and southern NY. Then bumps up totals again into the albany region and NE. Wonder if that was from a front end dumping closer to the cities and a more northerly track with a second system.

http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL

The #3 Analog - 1/3/94 - was a complete disaster in Philly. First, it was not forecasted well. Then, we had major ZR accumulations, We lost power for the weekend. I'll take 45 and rain over that again.

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Oh I wasn't suggesting this is mostly a snowstorm for anyone south of 287 but I'm just highlighting how unlike small changes in a 500mb set up, the placement of a stronger high 100 miles SE will have huge implications, just as it would if it slipped offshore just at the wrong time and we end up with 0 frozen and all rain.

Very true.

Of interest on the 18z is how it elongates the high over the Plains eastward much faster than before, so it "escaped" quicker towards us (which is what we very badly need!). The same thing happened with the last event, and while it's hard to remember how it was depicted as wet rather than white for several days... indeed it was (or rather, mostly wet with little snow).

As depicted on the 18z NAM, the Tuesday-Thursday event would truly be crippling, IMO.

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based on this run of the NAM I would forecast an all frozen mix of snow/ip/zr for just nw of PHL to TTN and NYC points N&W. As long as the low passes south of us, temperatures will struggle to get above freezing. if you look at the setups of the January 94 icestorms as well as VD 2007, you had the lows pretty much hugging the coast bringing in warm air aloft while we had a high in a good position to the north providing plenty of low level cold air. NWNJ would be pretty close to seeing mostly snow. This is all assuming the NAM is correct of course, the 18z run could be a blip for all we know but this solution makes sense given the amount of confluence produced by the monster PV IN eastern Canada. I would look for mesoscale models like the NAM to continue trending colder at the surface as we get closer to the event like what happened during VD 2007 when we thought it would be rainstorm but turned out to be a pretty cool sleet-storm for most.

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the 2nd round actually starts as snow even in NYC at 66 hrs

there is a warm layer at JFk from 800-875...not sure it would be snow. would be sleet though

at KNYC the surface NEVER gets above 32....so ther would be VERY little if any plain rain...

KJFK gets up to 34.5 at 78hrs but quickly gets back under 32...(after precip ends)

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One other thing to consider as we have at least 3 inches of liquid equiv on the ground. We need like 3 or 4 weeks of temps in the upper 30s to melt this stuff off gradually. It looks like this upcoming storm is only going to add to the "standing water" we have in mid Fairfield county- perhaps getting us up to 4.5 or 5 inches. Throw in the ice jams threat to the rivers - late Winter is shaping up as very interesting for some not-so-obvious reasons.

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would have to see 3 hr increments but it looks like NYC does not get above freezing at all on the 18z NAM. Looks like a thump of snow followed by IP/ZR. I do not expect the ZR to be really bad as the temperature will be close to freezing, but it will be good enough to cake the trees and the snowpack in ice.

http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_Knyc.txt

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any kind of sleet accumulation would be a disaster for us as sleet is compacted and has a 3 to 1 ratio I believe.With more cold coming after the storm,the snowpack with 4 new inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet would be like concrete and is only going to prolong the melting which it will eventually do.I have never seen snow piles and deep snowcover like we have had now for 5 weeks.Roofs are going to collaspe and other structures are going to succumb to the tremendous weight of the water laden ice,snow,sleetpack.

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FROM THE 18Z NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS ON WRIGHT-WEATHER.

EAST CENTRAL AND NE PA FROM RT. 78 NORTH 18+ TO A MAX OF 20+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS

NW NJ FROM RT. 78 NORTH AND WEST OF 287 18-20 INCHES.

JUST SOUTH OF THERE TO NW BURBS OF PHILLY, THROUGH HUNTERDON COUNTY NJ TO ESSEX COUNTY NJ 10-18 INCHES

IMMEDIATE BURBS NW OF PHILLY TO ABOUT EDISON NJ 6-10 INCHES

SE NY 15-18 INCHES

NYC LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 10 INCHES

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FROM THE 18Z NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS ON WRIGHT-WEATHER.

EAST CENTRAL AND NE PA FROM RT. 78 NORTH 18+ INCHES OF SNOW

NW NJ FROM RT. 78 NORTH AND WEST OF 287 18-20 INCHES.

JUST SOUTH OF THERE TO NW BURBS OF PHILLY, THROUGH HUNTERDON COUNTY NJ TO ESSEX COUNTY NJ 10-18 INCHES

IMMEDIATE BURBS NW OF PHILLY TO ABOUT EDISON NJ 6-10 INCHES

very nice, does it show a lot of sleet or freezing rain for the cities and burbs?

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lol.. Dude im 53 miles NW of NYC and im in Middletown..

Peekskill in N. Westchester is 37 miles N of the city..

ok so my crude analysis was off my 16 milesrolleyes.gif

my point had nothing to do with how north 55miles was but that due north of NYC isn't Connecticut...

edit: I'm actually correct...from midtown manhattan to northern most westchester cty is just about 50miles as the crow flies....weight_lift.gif

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I think it calculates this into these totals, so it is probably a sleet/snow mix accumulation. So, maybe that will hold these accumulations down, but i don't know exactly how they calculate this. Just saying what it shows.

very nice, does it show a lot of sleet or freezing rain for the cities and burbs?

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FROM THE 18Z NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS ON WRIGHT-WEATHER.

EAST CENTRAL AND NE PA FROM RT. 78 NORTH 18+ TO A MAX OF 20+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS

NW NJ FROM RT. 78 NORTH AND WEST OF 287 18-20 INCHES.

JUST SOUTH OF THERE TO NW BURBS OF PHILLY, THROUGH HUNTERDON COUNTY NJ TO ESSEX COUNTY NJ 10-18 INCHES

IMMEDIATE BURBS NW OF PHILLY TO ABOUT EDISON NJ 6-10 INCHES

SE NY 15-18 INCHES

NYC LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 10 INCHES

It's not counting the ice in and around philly.

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FROM THE 18Z NAM SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS ON WRIGHT-WEATHER.

EAST CENTRAL AND NE PA FROM RT. 78 NORTH 18+ TO A MAX OF 20+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS

NW NJ FROM RT. 78 NORTH AND WEST OF 287 18-20 INCHES.

JUST SOUTH OF THERE TO NW BURBS OF PHILLY, THROUGH HUNTERDON COUNTY NJ TO ESSEX COUNTY NJ 10-18 INCHES

IMMEDIATE BURBS NW OF PHILLY TO ABOUT EDISON NJ 6-10 INCHES

SE NY 15-18 INCHES

NYC LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 10 INCHES

what about NYC/LI/SWCT

thanks

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