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Tuesday/Wed Potential Brand new : )


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The low is about 100 miles south of previous runs in the mid-west and the high is stronger on this run once again and further south, just to our north and centered over southern Quebec as a 1032mb this run vs. 200 miles further north and a 1031mb on the previous run. If this trend continues, look out.

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Who is Roger Smith?A met?

http://futureweatherinc.wordpress.com/the-author-roger-j-smith-2/

Over the past couple of years, he has extensively expressed his beliefs on the Eastern Weather Forum that weather forecasts and patterns as well as climatic variations were influenced by changes in magnetic fields caused by certain solar bodies.

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This is starting to look like a vd 07 repeat. If the nam is the start of a trend it looks like NYC will see alot of ice after some snow

I think the overrunning potential with this is greater than "some snow." Potential being key word. I think 2-4 is likely out ahead of the main system but I could easily see it turn out more like the NAM

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OK, now is when I start looking at the models in a serious way, for NYC the forecast is going to be very difficult, could be snow to ice to rain or even all snow, the high to the north will determine the outcome...I do think we can now say with some confidence that Orange county on north are in for a very decent snowfall with very little ice. Once again this year, being a met in NYC really is no fun.

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The center of High pressure is hundreds of miles further south at 69 hrs this run in southern Quebec vs. the previous run.

Frankly I think when the clown maps come out on this one it will show ~ 5-7" for NYC and along Rt.78 in NJ, MUCH more just to the north..Also can guartentee 32F does not get NW of the cities on this run and probably not NYC itself .HUGE CHANGE if this sticks into future runs...

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I'm not going to get excited right now because its the 18z NAM and it's likely wrong. But wow...if it is correct, areas just to the North of NYC that got nearly jackpotted in the last storm, and have snowpacks around 24-30in, will pick up an additional 1-2ft to make for an absolutely epic snow pack of maybe as much as 3-4ft. Obviously I don't think its right...but the thought that this is possible gives me butterflies in my stomach.

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OK, now is when I start looking at the models in a serious way, for NYC the forecast is going to be very difficult, could be snow to ice to rain or even all snow, the high to the north will determine the outcome...I do think we can now say with some confidence that Orange county on north are in for a very decent snowfall with very little ice.

There you go....Right there....I would still try to wait until 0z models come out before we get a better idea.....

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OK, now is when I start looking at the models in a serious way, for NYC the forecast is going to be very difficult, could be snow to ice to rain or even all snow, the high to the north will determine the outcome...I do think we can now say with some confidence that Orange county on north are in for a very decent snowfall with very little ice. Once again this year, being a met in NYC really is no fun.

If the GFS follows suit with the NAM and WRF (the latter depicting redevelopment in S Jersey and thus locking the cold in over NYC) then we've really got something interesting setting up.

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The NAM's bias is typically to overamplify things once it gets past the immediate short range. If it sticks to its guns at 00z, that would be a major warning sign than NYC is going to see a very significant winter storm once again. Even before this run I thought we'd see almost all or all frozen, but this is great--even the second wave doesn't look too bad for NYC.

This sort of strikes me as a colder version of the event we had almost two weeks ago. Models warmed NYC much too quickly, and the huge bulk of QPF came with temps at freezing or below.

At this point, especially with the cold temperatures as the event begins, I'm beginning to suspect that the severity of this event may exceed the storm last week simply because of the potential for very significant icing (I'd say we have the chance to see up to an inch of QPF fall as predominantly sleet with some zr).

Seasonal trends!

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There you go....Right there....I would still try to wait until 0z models come out before we get a better idea.....

and we all know how that turned out last time...in case you forgot

5 days out-rain

4 days out-rain

3 days out-rain to snow

2 days out-snow-rain-ice-snow

1 day out-maybe all snow?

day of....HECS

The high may come to the rescue again here. To anyone who thinks I'm comparing the 2 set-ups I am not, they are completely different. What is the same however, is the push of the high pressure that keeps cold air locked in just enough to keep the precipitation mostly frozen is more than a possibility.

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The best part of this storm if it falls mainly frozen is going to be the long duration of it...we are looking at snows starting out very early on Tuesday and asides from perhaps a small break between the two waves, it should continue until around 12:00 am Thursday. The majority of the storms this year, while great, were quick hitters often happening at night and snow done by daybreak or shortly after.

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18z NAM is a perfect example of why people should not be jumping to conclusions and making bold statements such as "the models are in excellent agreement" because I hate to break it to you but we still have a LONG way to go on this one.

I was thinking the same thing, and to be honest - did not see "excellent agreement" myself. I am 55 miles N.E. of NYC and am starting to think this could be a crippling event - several inches of snow and then several hours of ice. With a cold shot behind this storm, the problem of power outages is possibly going to be dangerous.

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The best part of this storm if it falls mainly frozen is going to be the long duration of it...we are looking at snows starting out very early on Tuesday and asides from perhaps a small break between the two waves, it should continue until around 12:00 am Thursday

and to think if it was 100 miles further south than what the NAM depicts this would be the 3rd HECS of the season for NYChotdog.gif

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I was thinking the same thing, and to be honest - did not see "excellent agreement" myself. I am 55 miles N.E. of NYC and am starting to think this could be a crippling event - several inches of snow and then several hours of ice. With a cold shot behind this storm, the problem of power outages is possibly going to be dangerous.

Per this run of the NAM you would see much more snow than several inches.

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