IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Everyone realizes here that the models can't even agree on if were going to get a coastal redevelpment right? If that coastal does develop, NYC probably only gets above freezing for a very short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ What is his rational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There are a lot of "look likes" scenarios. This is not a typical winter, this is not your typical lakes cutter, unknown variables outweigh certainties. Sub 1000mb low in the Ohio Valley...sounds like your typical cutter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think people need to realize that if you live in the major cities, or to there south and east, this is not your storm and it hasn't been for days. NYC has a better shot if things fall into place than Philly. NW burbs of both cities have shots at significant snow and ice. Areas 30 miles north and west of the cities have a shot at warning criteria snow topped with major ice. If this storm is anything like the 2/13/07 analog, where I work in Ramsey we were upgraded to an ice storm warning near the end of the event when Uton finaly realized the temps were not getting above freezing till after the precip was over. Everything was covered and temps were in the mid 20's when the rain began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sub 1000mb low in the Ohio Valley...sounds like your typical cutter to me. Perhaps so....but with all that cold air to our north, a cold atlantic, an enormous snowpack, the cutters "normal" effects can be modified or forstalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Taking a look at some of the latest analogs coming out now from the midwest, tons of support for the interior getting buried. #2 analog is 2/13/07 for this area. #1 analog says no snow east of the Mississippi which is hard to believe. Just for sh**s and giggles #5 analog is PDII. First time I've seen it show up with this event. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=048&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The #1 analog is 2/13/07.....and that storm destoryed most of PA and NY unless you live in the Mt. Holly portion of PA, then you got lots of ice. Just north and west of the Poconos up into the Albany area got 18"+. Poconos got 6-18" with a sharp SE cutoff. That storm was amazing here as we got 8" of snow followed by 3" of zr/ip making glaciers and then another 9" of snow.. Over 3" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Enough with the analogs, please. They should be used when there's a wide spread in the models and they're ensembles. We pretty much know what's going to happen here. We have an incredibly strong consensus. Analogs are too specific for events that are pretty well mapped out like this one. No two events are alike. I agree, analogs are very useful, but not with this kind of consensus and not every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Enough with the analogs, please. They should be used when there's a wide spread in the models and they're ensembles. We pretty much know what's going to happen here. We have an incredibly strong consensus. Analogs are too specific for events that are pretty well mapped out like this one. No two events are alike. I agree, analogs are very useful, but not with this kind of consensus and not every 6 hours. I'm having trouble finding a "strong concensus" when the models are still in disagreement with regards to the coastal which would have a significant roll. Maybe down by where you live in Somerset county you can be more certain to get above freezing but for those north and west nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think that in the philly area this is an elevation based event if you want more frozen precip. Don't think so. Elevation will not help with upper level warming near Philly, unless you're at elevations seen only in the Rockies. You need latitude on this event for snow (lots of it), and cad for surface freezing for sleet/freezing rain, neither of which would be aided by elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just for those who want to hang onto whatever hope is left Who is Roger Smith?A met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We had great model concensus before recently just outside of 48hrs and ended up with an unexppected 4" front dump, still think there's some room for shift here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm having trouble finding a "strong concensus" when the models are still in disagreement with regards to the coastal which would have a significant roll. Maybe down by where you live in Somerset county you can be more certain to get above freezing but for those north and west nothing is set in stone. With a low track through the Ohio Valley and a secondary tracking just south of Poughkeepsie, it would make sense that I change to rain. Most people on this board would change to rain. Yes, even Pompton Plains. That 30 inch snow pack won't do much although you may stay below freezing a little longer than me. It's amazing how 15 miles could make such a huge difference, because I only have about 18 inches. What also is a bit disconcerting is the fact that John isn't here. You'd think that a "threat" like this would peak his interests. This isn't our storm imo. As snowgoose said, one of the rare cases where cape cod does better than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 15z SREF's came in similar at the surface. Says 2M temps finaly get above freezing for most of area around hr 72. By then, well over 0.5" QPF has fallen. 850 temps go above freezing around hr 51 north of Philly and 54 everyone by 57-60. I think surface temps warm slightly faster south and east of the cities on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't think so. Elevation will not help with upper level warming near Philly, unless you're at elevations seen only in the Rockies. You need latitude on this event for snow (lots of it), and cad for surface freezing for sleet/freezing rain, neither of which would be aided by elevation. Just saying I think we'll do a bit better than philly but most on this board will change to rain, the question is when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Who is Roger Smith?A met? No, VERY far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With a low track through the Ohio Valley and a secondary tracking just south of Poughkeepsie, it would make sense that I change to rain. Most people on this board would change to rain. Yes, even Pompton Plains. That 30 inch snow pack won't do much although you may stay below freezing a little longer than me. It's amazing how 15 miles could make such a huge difference, because I only have about 18 inches. What also is a bit disconcerting is the fact that John isn't here. You'd think that a "threat" like this would peak his interests. This isn't our storm imo. As snowgoose said, one of the rare cases where cape cod does better than us. I've never completely lost my snowpack. Still had about 5" left from 12/26 when the next snow fell. Then the one ontop of that, then the one ontop of that. Got about 14" out of the system last week alone. Snowpack here that I haven't seen since 03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think people need to realize that if you live in the major cities, or to there south and east, this is not your storm and it hasn't been for days. NYC has a better shot if things fall into place than Philly. NW burbs of both cities have shots at significant snow and ice. Areas 30 miles north and west of the cities have a shot at warning criteria snow topped with major ice. If this storm is anything like the 2/13/07 analog, where I work in Ramsey we were upgraded to an ice storm warning near the end of the event when Uton finaly realized the temps were not getting above freezing till after the precip was over. Everything was covered and temps were in the mid 20's when the rain began. I mostly agree with this. I've been reading other posts discussing major snows in NJ with this event. That would require major changes in the modeling. Soundings show well above freezing temps in the mid levels and surface temps above freezing in all but the far northwest sections. There should be over-running snows ahead of the system, but I would suggest no one sees 6" in NJ as models are notorious for underestimating how fast upper air warming occurs, and I suspect that the change from snow to sleet/freezing rain occurs earlier than modeled (which is the case 99 times out of 100). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nam is a very good hit for nyc and nnj and northeast PA thru 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Why isn't anyone talking about the euro? It seems like it just plows up north to get blown apart doesn't it. Just seems like a strange scenario to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nam is a very good hit for nyc and nnj and northeast PA thru 51. Yup, looking more like 3-6" C/N NJ & NYC, with 4-8" possible N &W. EDIT: NAM has WSW criteria snows for about I-78 and North in NJ/NYC. Verbtaim up to 8-10" in far northern NJ/S NY State. Also quite a bit colder overall than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the NAM suggests some pretty impressive overrunning snows, esp NYC north where the 850 line never goes north of by hour 54. Just N and W of the city look a narrow strip of maybe 6-10in. I'd like to see the other models start depicting higher QPF with the overrunning before I latch on to a NAM-like solution. Even though all models suggest modest (2-4,3-6) overrunning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, the NAM is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hard to completely trust the NAM but I think its probably "more correct" with the lower surface temps than the GFS and especially the Euro which is known for its warm bias. NAM gives everyone north of I-80 > 0.75" QPF before the main event ever arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeesh, the NAM is way colder. Areas north of NYC start wave #2 as snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 More snow moving in at hr 69? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It is looking more like that crazy `1ZZ/ 1/29/2011 GEM run. A hint of some CAA behind the first wave for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hard to completely trust the NAM but I think its probably "more correct" with the lower surface temps than the GFS and especially the Euro which is known for its warm bias. NAM gives everyone north of I-80 > 0.75" QPF before the main event ever arrives. What should also help keep surface temps colder during the 2nd event is the newly freshened snowpack but more importantly the front end low that devleops off the coast early should help bring in some CAA as it departs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It is looking more like that crazy `1ZZ/ 1/29/2011 GEM run. A hint of some CAA behind the first wave for NYC. Yeah, on the experimental NCEP site, you can see the 2M temps crash S after the first wave & as the high pops up to the N in Canada. Sets the stage for the second wave. Looks like some good CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 seems like the more of a break in between "waves" the better? sorta like the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.