hazwoper Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There will be blizzard conditions in some areas I'm sure, but not as widespread as henry's swath. lol I just don't know how I am getting out of O'Hare for Allentown at 7PM on Tuesday. Talk about white knuckle if that flight takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just don't know how I am getting out of O'Hare for Allentown at 7PM on Tuesday. Talk about white knuckle if that flight takes off. haha, yeah wow. I have a feeling you will be staying for several hours longer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think that's a very good call at this time. Looks like it weighted the GFS more heavily than the NAM which extends the 6-12" amounts well into NJ. I haven't seen too much mention of the snowpack here. Nearly 30" of snow on the ground I would have to think helps hold temps down 2-3 degrees below guidance. If that's the case, those forecasted highs of 33-35 north and west of the cities is in trouble. I'm happy the interior is finaly getting their snows. Hopefully the getting shafted talks will come to an end and when the next coastal threat develops the trolling stops. sorry dude but here in central Pa, we are still getting the shaft.All the storms last yr and this yr have stayed just to our south and east.This one will stay just to the north giving us alot of ice, we cant win for nothing. We stay in the shaft zone but Im used to it.You get enough of these and you become apathetic about it all. Just wanted to inform u that this isnt the storm for central Pa . Upstate NY looks nice for this one tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ant updates from roger smith on this storm lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 haha, yeah wow. I have a feeling you will be staying for several hours longer than expected. your flight out of allentown probably never takes off................they will be getting as many planes out of the area as possible with such a widespread impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 your flight out of allentown probably never takes off................they will be getting as many planes out of the area as possible with such a widespread impact. My flight OUT of Allentown leaves at 6AM on Tuesday heading to Chicago. My flight back to ABE leaves ORD at 7PM heading for ABE. I may get out, but coming back should be the big problem. EDIT - but I see what you are saying. No need to bring in planes with 18-24" incoming. UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 sorry dude but here in central Pa, we are still getting the shaft.All the storms last yr and this yr have stayed just to our south and east.This one will stay just to the north giving us alot of ice, we cant win for nothing. We stay in the shaft zone but Im used to it.You get enough of these and you become apathetic about it all. Just wanted to inform u that this isnt the storm for central Pa . Upstate NY looks nice for this one tho. The #1 analog is 2/13/07.....and that storm destoryed most of PA and NY unless you live in the Mt. Holly portion of PA, then you got lots of ice. Just north and west of the Poconos up into the Albany area got 18"+. Poconos got 6-18" with a sharp SE cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My flight OUT of Allentown leaves at 6AM on Tuesday heading to Chicago. My flight back to ABE leaves ORD at 7PM heading for ABE. I may get out, but coming back should be the big problem. You should probably just make reservations at a hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My flight OUT of Allentown leaves at 6AM on Tuesday heading to Chicago. My flight back to ABE leaves ORD at 7PM heading for ABE. I may get out, but coming back should be the big problem. Check the point and click forecast for Chicago. Snow all day on Monday, then a chance for snow on Tuesday morning followed by the main event on Tuesday afternoon. Good luck with that one.... You may very well squeeze in a flight but I would expect widespread cancellations well beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The #1 analog is 2/13/07.....and that storm destoryed most of PA and NY unless you live in the Mt. Holly portion of PA, then you gots lot of ice. Just north and west of the Poconos up into the Albany area got 18"+. Poconos got 6-18" with a sharp SE cutoff. I believe that storm gave the state college , williamsport area 10 inches with some ice. I can tell you that with that one exception we havent recieved a 10 inch snow going back to before the 05-06 winter. Im pretty sure on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I believe that storm gave the state college , williamsport area 10 inches with some ice. I can tell you that with that one exception we havent recieved a 10 inch snow going back to before the 05-06 winter. Im pretty sure on that. It was a severe snow and then sleet event there which added up to maybe 11", and then froze into a glue for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I believe that storm gave the state college , williamsport area 10 inches with some ice. I can tell you that with that one exception we havent recieved a 10 inch snow going back to before the 05-06 winter. Im pretty sure on that. well I haven't seen any analogs that would proove you wrong but I will say that their are plenty of current analogs prior to 06 that show good support for a central PA thumping. Many which gave central PA 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, the NWS in Chicago has a "Blizzard Watch" in effect now. you can watch the blizzard "live" in chi town here http://www.cubworld.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does anyone know if this storm will fit warning criteria for Philadelphia? Thank you. At this point I would think not. Probably advisory snow and or ice at best then rain. But that is not set in stone either way just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philadelphia Wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thank you! I have been learning so much by reading all of the posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does anyone know if this storm will fit warning criteria for Philadelphia? Thank you. Most guidance says they fall short in Philly proper but the NW burbs have a shot, especially with ice storm warning criteria being 0.25" until you reach the Poconos. I think NYC has a better shot at seeing a warning criteria event but they look to fall just short at the moment unless you want to put most of your eggs in the NAM's basket. Still several fine details to work out but I would think watches fly tonight for most of the areas north and west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Most guidance says they fall short in Philly proper but the NW burbs have a shot, especially with ice storm warning criteria being 0.25" until you reach the Poconos. I think NYC has a better shot at seeing a warning criteria event but they look to fall just short at the moment unless you want to put most of your eggs in the NAM's basket. Still several fine details to work out but I would think watches fly tonight for most of the areas north and west of 95. So if NYC eeked out warming criteris that would mean potential for 6 inches plus? When is the next critical model run which will give us heightened confidance about what is destined to unfold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think a WWA is more likely for NYC for the snow/sleet ice possibility on Tuesday.(if anything) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Interesting, latest #1 analog is the blizzard of 88. Says NYC gets 2-4" while areas 20 miles north and west get 8-18". (2/11/88) #2 analog is 2/9/94 which says everyone north of Philly gets 6"+. Sort of an odd snowfall map though on that one which actually has a strip of 8-12" over north central NJ followed by lower amounts over extreme north Jersey and southern NY. Then bumps up totals again into the albany region and NE. Wonder if that was from a front end dumping closer to the cities and a more northerly track with a second system. http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think a WWA is more likely for NYC for the snow/sleet ice possibility on Tuesday.(if anything) I didn't say NYC was going to see warning criteria, just that the odds are slightly better than Philly at the moment. NYC probably falls "just short" as my previous statement indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost surely WWA for Tuesday with the 2 to 4" of Snow.... and Tues Eve for the Ice....it will obviously be icing longer to the N and W of Philly. Does anyone know if this storm will fit warning criteria for Philadelphia? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Get the feeling NOTHING is etched in stone and uncertainty reigns supreme and that the next 24-48 hours we're going to Have "models gone wild" I Think this storm might be the biggest surprise for NYC this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think that in the philly area this is an elevation based event if you want more frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Got to get that heavy watered ladden snowpack solidified tonight into tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like this will be a filibuster in an otherwise decent winter. Out here looks like nothing but rain; was hoping this would be it but the cold air is gone just in time for us to get a decent system. Reminds me of a La Nina winter...oh that's right we are in one of those still. I guess the law of averages says we were due for a warm up and the return of the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think NYC will get a WWA for 2-4 inches of snow on tuesday, wed looks like a big rain storm with flooding possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There are a lot of "look likes" scenarios. This is not a typical winter, this is not your typical lakes cutter, unknown variables outweigh certainties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3. Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY. Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track. Just for those who want to hang onto whatever hope is left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Most guidance says they fall short in Philly proper but the NW burbs have a shot, especially with ice storm warning criteria being 0.25" until you reach the Poconos. I think NYC has a better shot at seeing a warning criteria event but they look to fall just short at the moment unless you want to put most of your eggs in the NAM's basket. Still several fine details to work out but I would think watches fly tonight for most of the areas north and west of 95. No way nyc gets a warning criteria event out of this. Far northwestern NJ has a better chance; Montague and the mountainous areas of Sussex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It looks like the blocking will comeback later in the month to make for a cold wet spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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