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At 60 hrs. the soundings that I have for NYC on the GFS are -4.1 at the surface, -1.0 at 850 and the warmest layer I have access to shows -.7 at 950mb.

yea i have the same, but the warmest layer i have is 925 or in that region which is above 0, so its prob sleet or snow sleet mix depending on how far above it is.

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Oh, I see. Ok then.

I responded to algreek3's post about 850's being near 0C in Southern New Jersey. The sounding I linked was for KMIV, not NYC.

Not to soapbox again, but this is an example of why it's very difficult to lump PHL and NYC into the same subforum--there's a ton of variability there. While you may be getting SN/IP, I'll be down here getting RN.

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Yes, and it probably will until the first week in March. That is almost always when the patterns like these break down. This is exactly what happened in the winter of 1993-1994. The pattern also broke last year in the first week of March.

After the major snowfall in mid February last year that was pretty much all she wrote for my area. Then in early March we got the noreaster with all the heavy rain and that combined with all snow melt left up in the upper portions of the river basins caused the worst flooding since 84. If the EC weeklies are correct in pumping up the SE ridge most of the storms will track to our west and we will be under the gun for lots of heavy rain if the southern stream remains as active as its been.

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:thumbsdown: As for the south shore of Nassau County is the latest NAM and trends indicating an all out sleet and ice storm with .75-1.25" ZR glazing. We have all the ingredients for maybe one of the worse Long Island ice storms in decades. This look right on line with 28-29F temps on Wednesday with rain, and 850's around 42-45F. Long Islanders will be talking about this event like the 1/1994 ice storm. Trends are very unsettling to me. Looks to repeat 1/1994 in my eyes. I personally would take the 15-20 inches that north of us get. Ice is scary. Looks like a snow to sleet event on Tuesday. A lull, and then the 8-10 hour heavy ice storm on Wednesday. I really do not want this, but the surface temps are trending just below freezing with 1030 mb high extension over Quebec from the super 1050 mb high over the Great Plains. Not happy with Long Island's fate with IP and ZR nightmare prospects. Comments welcomed.

It's very, very difficult to get an icestorm here the way the NW suburbs do. We probably run the whole gamut of precip types here, but I doubt we get the crippling freezing rain that others could.

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DT really indicating on his facebook page that this is not going to be an East Coast period through 2/10 or 2/15 or so...generally hyping all the events for the MW, including the one on the the 5th also being inland of where its shown now.

This guy was a hyping an east coast/mid atlantic snow storm a few days ago.

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This guy was a hyping an east coast/mid atlantic snow storm a few days ago.

I could see how he's right though. SE Ridge patterns are seldomly good for us, and result in cutter after cutter most times. Very typical Nina gradient pattern that blasts New England and definitely the Midwest. We need that west based -NAO to return, pronto.

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DT got one thing right recently, and that was that most of the areas N and W of the big cities were in for a warning criteria snowfall event last week when some guidance was barely showing them getting even an advisory type event. He is just one opinion out of many and sounds like he is riding the unfavorable NAO.

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DT got one thing right recently, and that was that most of the areas N and W of the big cities were in for a warning criteria snowfall event last week when some guidance was barely showing them getting even an advisory type event. He is just one opinion out of many and sounds like he is riding the unfavorable NAO.

It's easy to say things will be unfavorable due to the NAO. Just like it was easy for most of the METS to say this winter will not be cold and snowy due to the strong Nina. There's a lot more that goes into a pattern that taking the easy way out. Relying on Climo all the time can get you burned, just like with our last snowstorm which was supposed to be rain.

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Guest stormchaser

who thinks these are a few degrees too warm ??? what makes me suspicious is the 34 in northeast PA

And where are you located?

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I think that's a very good call at this time. Looks like it weighted the GFS more heavily than the NAM which extends the 6-12" amounts well into NJ. I haven't seen too much mention of the snowpack here. Nearly 30" of snow on the ground I would have to think helps hold temps down 2-3 degrees below guidance. If that's the case, those forecasted highs of 33-35 north and west of the cities is in trouble. I'm happy the interior is finaly getting their snows. Hopefully the getting shafted talks will come to an end and when the next coastal threat develops the trolling stops.

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Guest stormchaser

60 hours out is 7pm on Tuesday, so anything that falls in NYC prior to then would be snow.

Seems the consensus is in that this is not a major snowstorm for NNJ/NYC. I think we can put that thought to rest

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