chubbs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got a flight out of ABE at 6AM Tuesday heading to Chicago then returning to ABE later that night (10PM). Am I in trouble? Chicago is going to get buried on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This far out GFS is probably too warm at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is all snow through 60 hrs on the GFS as per soundings. Yes they are. You get to 0C at 900mb, but that is a snow sounding at hr60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So snow until Tuesday 7:00PM and what hour out is all precip out of here? Thanks Well you get heavy rain on Wed and i only looked through 84 so until at least 7 PM Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's hard to say really.....at hr78 we have warmed above freezing in NEPA but looking at the H7 charts it's already drying up significantly. Only area of >90 is in the extreme eastern part of the state. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As for the south shore of Nassau County is the latest NAM and trends indicating an all out sleet and ice storm with .75-1.25" ZR glazing. We have all the ingredients for maybe one of the worse Long Island ice storms in decades. This look right on line with 28-29F temps on Wednesday with rain, and 850's around 42-45F. Long Islanders will be talking about this event like the 1/1994 ice storm. Trends are very unsettling to me. Looks to repeat 1/1994 in my eyes. I personally would take the 15-20 inches that north of us get. Ice is scary. Looks like a snow to sleet event on Tuesday. A lull, and then the 8-10 hour heavy ice storm on Wednesday. I really do not want this, but the surface temps are trending just below freezing with 1030 mb high extension over Quebec from the super 1050 mb high over the Great Plains. Not happy with Long Island's fate with IP and ZR nightmare prospects. Comments welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got a flight out of ABE at 6AM Tuesday heading to Chicago then returning to ABE later that night (10PM). Am I in trouble? define trouble? you will be flying into a winter storm warning and flying back into an ice storm. Try to get out Monday and plan to spend an extra day in the 12+ that Chicago is going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 models in agreement with over an inch of rain for philly....thursday cant come soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not on the GFS. Are you talking about the NAM? Problem is that at hr 54, the entire column below 850mb is above freezing (Tmax 1.2C)--with an 850mb temp of 0.1C, so at best that's wet snowflakes, and more likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you have a different link? I keep getting the 2009-10 blog entries. Don -keep scrolling down on the page thats the current page - he just didn't update the year titles http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 60 hours out is 7pm on Tuesday, so anything that falls in NYC prior to then would be snow. Please educate me: 60 hours starting from from what time today out? Also , 60 hours until when? When meaning what hour would it all be over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes. I've got a flight out of ABE at 6AM Tuesday heading to Chicago then returning to ABE later that night (10PM). Am I in trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WxOutlooks - new update predicting another huge february total snowfall and record breaking season. Also is very bullish on tuesday wednesday event... http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ He increased his numbers to 80-90 inches of snow . He expects a very snowy February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As for the south shore of Nassau County is the latest NAM and trends indicating an all out sleet and ice storm with .75-1.25" ZR glazing. We have all the ingredients for maybe one of the worse Long Island ice storms in decades. This look right on line with 28-29F temps on Wednesday with rain, and 850's around 42-45F. Long Islanders will be talking about this event like the 1/1994 ice storm. Trends are very unsettling to me. Looks to repeat 1/1994 in my eyes. I personally would take the 15-20 inches that north of us get. Ice is scary. Well let's push those 850's further south and get into the 15-20 inch snows ..actually I'd settle for sleet over FR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I see a winter outlook on that blog, but no discussion of the Tue-Wed event. Where are you seeing his discussion of the Tue-Wed event? he uses an ** system for probabilities of more then 2 inches - he increased the number of *** for both days - he posts here maybe he can explain his blog further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Max surface temps through 1pm Wed on the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Max surface temps through 1pm Wed on the 12z gfs. who thinks these are a few degrees too warm ??? what makes me suspicious is the 34 in northeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We might see a significant ice event N and W of the cities with this setup. I don't think the models are recognizing the strong CAD potential, but anytime you have a strong area of cold high pressure in SE Canada or Northern New England, you're going to see the surface cold become trapped. Also if the low were to shift about 100 miles south, we would likely see all frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS snowfall output map from Wright-Weather shows the same areas as depicted by the NAM in Eastern PA north of Rt. 78, and Warren, Morris, Sussex and Northern Passaic County in NW NJ getting 4-6 inches of snow before the changeover. The NAM showed 6-10 in the exact same locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 who thinks these are a few degrees too warm ??? what makes me suspicious is the 34 in northeast PA GFS is notoriously bad at picking up on low level cold...use the NAM thermal profiles for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 who thinks these are a few degrees too warm ??? what makes me suspicious is the 34 in northeast PA I think they are spot on. Just look at the storm track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Canadian agrees on some decent snows for us prior to the changeover late on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think it's pretty safe to say that areas 20 miles north and west of the cities are in for a front end high end advisory type snowfall. Areas 40 miles NW are probably in for a low end warning criteria snowfall. Then comes the fun, probably a brief period of freezing rain in the big cities but just 20 miles north and west probably have a border line ice storm warning criteria event (0.25-0.5") of ice. Temps probably get just a hair above freezing by late morning on top out between 33-35 degrees before crashing back down if the secondary pops. 40 miles north and west getting into the higher terrain looks to be an absolute nightmare with warning criteria snows getting topped by warning criteria ice. Places like West Milford and Vernon look to get absolutly smoked. As was no suprise, 2/13/07 came up as the #1 analog on the 00z runs. 1994 didn't make the top 15. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=036&flg=fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC rush hour Tuesday AM VS PM ..comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 PM will be horrible. AM will not be good, but not horrible. NYC rush hour Tuesday AM VS PM ..comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not on the GFS. Are you talking about the NAM? On the GFS using Twister Data: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 slightly off topic but the long range GFS is worth taking a look at....the parade of storms continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 60 hrs. the soundings that I have for NYC on the GFS are -4.1 at the surface, -1.0 at 850 and the warmest layer I have access to shows -.7 at 950mb. On the GFS using Twister Data: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, and it probably will until the first week in March. That is almost always when the patterns like these break down. This is exactly what happened in the winter of 1993-1994. The pattern also broke last year in the first week of March. slightly off topic but the long range GFS is worth taking a look at....the parade of storms continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At 60 hrs. the soundings that I have for NYC on the GFS are -4.1 at the surface, -1.0 at 850 and the warmest layer I have access to shows -.7 at 950mb. I responded to algreek3's post about 850's being near 0C in Southern New Jersey. The sounding I linked was for KMIV, not NYC. Not to soapbox again, but this is an example of why it's very difficult to lump PHL and NYC into the same subforum--there's a ton of variability there. While you may be getting SN/IP, I'll be down here getting RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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