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Tuesday/Wed Potential Brand new : )


Guest stormchaser

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:thumbsdown: As for the south shore of Nassau County is the latest NAM and trends indicating an all out sleet and ice storm with .75-1.25" ZR glazing. We have all the ingredients for maybe one of the worse Long Island ice storms in decades. This look right on line with 28-29F temps on Wednesday with rain, and 850's around 42-45F. Long Islanders will be talking about this event like the 1/1994 ice storm. Trends are very unsettling to me. Looks to repeat 1/1994 in my eyes. I personally would take the 15-20 inches that north of us get. Ice is scary. Looks like a snow to sleet event on Tuesday. A lull, and then the 8-10 hour heavy ice storm on Wednesday. I really do not want this, but the surface temps are trending just below freezing with 1030 mb high extension over Quebec from the super 1050 mb high over the Great Plains. Not happy with Long Island's fate with IP and ZR nightmare prospects. Comments welcomed.
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I've got a flight out of ABE at 6AM Tuesday heading to Chicago then returning to ABE later that night (10PM). Am I in trouble?

define trouble?

you will be flying into a winter storm warning and flying back into an ice storm. Try to get out Monday and plan to spend an extra day in the 12+ that Chicago is going to get.

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:thumbsdown: As for the south shore of Nassau County is the latest NAM and trends indicating an all out sleet and ice storm with .75-1.25" ZR glazing. We have all the ingredients for maybe one of the worse Long Island ice storms in decades. This look right on line with 28-29F temps on Wednesday with rain, and 850's around 42-45F. Long Islanders will be talking about this event like the 1/1994 ice storm. Trends are very unsettling to me. Looks to repeat 1/1994 in my eyes. I personally would take the 15-20 inches that north of us get. Ice is scary.

Well let's push those 850's further south and get into the 15-20 inch snows ..actually I'd settle for sleet over FR

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I see a winter outlook on that blog, but no discussion of the Tue-Wed event. Where are you seeing his discussion of the Tue-Wed event?

he uses an ** system for probabilities of more then 2 inches - he increased the number of *** for both days - he posts here maybe he can explain his blog further

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We might see a significant ice event N and W of the cities with this setup. I don't think the models are recognizing the strong CAD potential, but anytime you have a strong area of cold high pressure in SE Canada or Northern New England, you're going to see the surface cold become trapped. Also if the low were to shift about 100 miles south, we would likely see all frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain).

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I think it's pretty safe to say that areas 20 miles north and west of the cities are in for a front end high end advisory type snowfall. Areas 40 miles NW are probably in for a low end warning criteria snowfall. Then comes the fun, probably a brief period of freezing rain in the big cities but just 20 miles north and west probably have a border line ice storm warning criteria event (0.25-0.5") of ice. Temps probably get just a hair above freezing by late morning on top out between 33-35 degrees before crashing back down if the secondary pops. 40 miles north and west getting into the higher terrain looks to be an absolute nightmare with warning criteria snows getting topped by warning criteria ice. Places like West Milford and Vernon look to get absolutly smoked. As was no suprise, 2/13/07 came up as the #1 analog on the 00z runs. 1994 didn't make the top 15.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=036&flg=fixed

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Yes, and it probably will until the first week in March. That is almost always when the patterns like these break down. This is exactly what happened in the winter of 1993-1994. The pattern also broke last year in the first week of March.

slightly off topic but the long range GFS is worth taking a look at....the parade of storms continue.

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At 60 hrs. the soundings that I have for NYC on the GFS are -4.1 at the surface, -1.0 at 850 and the warmest layer I have access to shows -.7 at 950mb.

I responded to algreek3's post about 850's being near 0C in Southern New Jersey. The sounding I linked was for KMIV, not NYC.

Not to soapbox again, but this is an example of why it's very difficult to lump PHL and NYC into the same subforum--there's a ton of variability there. While you may be getting SN/IP, I'll be down here getting RN.

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